Transcript Statistical Thinking

Statistical Thinking
[Professor Name]
[Class and Section Number]
Today’s Learning Objectives
1. Define basic elements of a statistical investigation.
2. Describe the role of p-values and confidence
intervals in statistical inference.
3. Describe the role of random sampling in
generalizing conclusions from a sample to a
population.
4. Describe the role of random assignment in
drawing cause-and-effect conclusions.
5. Critique statistical studies.
Survey of Attitudes Toward
Statistics (SATS) Scale
Think  Pair  Share
These questions are designed to identify your
attitudes towards statistics.
Overview
• Introduction
• Key Components to a Statistical Investigation
• Distributional Thinking
• Statistical Significance
• Control, Probability, Level of Significance
• Generalizability
• Samples and Populations, Random Sample,
Margin of Error
• Cause and Effect
• Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment
Introduction
 6 cups of coffee:
 Men  10% lower chance of dying
 Women  15% lower chance of dying
 Does this mean you should start
drinking coffee or increase your
own coffee habit?
Key Components to a
Statistical Investigation
Planning the study
Examining the data
Inferring from the data
Drawing Conclusions
Overview
• Introduction
• Key components to a Statistical Investigation
• Distributional Thinking
• Statistical Significance
• Control, Probability, Level of Significance
• Generalizability
• Samples and Populations, Random Sample,
Margin of Error
• Cause and Effect
• Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment
Distributional Thinking
 Analyzing the pattern of data variation, called the
distribution of the variable, often reveals insights.
 Develop an example of a
distribution, of one variable,
that you often encounter in
your life.
 What is the variable and
how does it vary?
Distributional Thinking
Table 1. Frequency tables of patient reading levels and pamphlet readability levels.
Figure 1. Comparison of patient
reading levels and pamphlet
readability levels.
Collect and Display Data
 How many concerts did you go to
this past year?
– Write your answer down and turn it in
 What is the best way to visually represent
the information?
 What single score best represents the data?
 How much variability is in the data?
Distributional Thinking
Task Performance
Tables and graphs are often
presented in mass media;
sometimes accurately,
sometimes not.
1.
What should you look for when examining this data to interpret it correctly?
2.
How are people able to manipulate visual depictions of statistics to skew
conclusions?
Overview
• Introduction
• Key Components to a Statistical Investigation
• Distributional Thinking
• Statistical Significance
• Control, Probability, Level of Significance
• Generalizability
• Samples and Populations, Random Sample,
Margin of Error
• Cause and Effect
• Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment
Statistical Significance
Control
 Are there other variables in the infant
study that the researchers missed?
Probability/ p-value
 P-Value extravaganza
Level of Significance
 p < .05
Overview
• Introduction
• Key Components to a Statistical Investigation
• Distributional Thinking
• Statistical Significance
• Control, Probability, Level of Significance
• Generalizability
• Samples and Populations, Random Sample,
Margin of Error
• Cause and Effect
• Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment
Generalizability
Samples and Populations
Generalizability
 How similar does a sample
need to be to the population?
 Can you generalize from one
class to the whole grade?
 Random Sample
 Margin of Error
Overview
• Introduction
• Key Components to a Statistical Investigation
• Distributional Thinking
• Statistical Significance
• Control, Probability, Level of Significance
• Generalizability
• Samples and Populations, Random Sample,
Margin of Error
• Cause and effect
• Statistical Tendency, Random Assignment
Cause and Effect
 Statistical Tendency
 Random Assignment
If the p-value is small (under .05) the observed
mean scores were not coincidental
Activity: Popular Press Statistics
CAT: The Muddiest Point
 What was the muddiest point about today’s
class?
 Write down what concept you are still
struggling to understand.
Conclusion
Photo Attribution
Slides
1 & 21
Photo Credit: Integral to the Plot widdowquinn https://www.flickr.com/photos/widdowquinn/2664625515/
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/
Slide 3
Photo Credit: Questions1 Grisel D´An https://www.flickr.com/photos/128454566@N06/15893429463
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/
Slide 5
Photo Credit: Espresso Coffee Maker and Coffee Beans Lilian Wong
https://www.flickr.com/photos/bonjourwill/4527989917/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Slide 8
Photo Credit: Fisheye + Ringflash + Pub = Paul Stevenson https://www.flickr.com/photos/53496815@N00/4566210575/
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Slide 10
Photo Credit: Concert Die Fantastischen Vier #13: Hands up! Andreas H
https://www.flickr.com/photos/andih/2081568036/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/
Slide 13
Photo Credit: V.R.K. Ian D. Keating https://www.flickr.com/photos/ian-arlett/5610316258/in/photostream/
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Slide 15
Photo Credit: Fun in Galway Barnacles Budget Accommodation https://www.flickr.com/photos/baranclesdublingalway/
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Slide 18
Photo Credit: As the Sun Sets Eric https://www.flickr.com/photos/29498428@N00/7314619952/
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Photo Credit: Crowd down the street Guillaume https://www.flickr.com/photos/guiguibu91/2889883615
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Photo Credit: Desktop Summit group photo Kat https://www.flickr.com/photos/kitty-kat/6049220331
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Slide 19
Photo Credit: Somali tech focus group 1 City of Seattle Community Tech
https://www.flickr.com/photos/seattlecommunitytech/8749631132 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
Slide 20
Photo Credit: Illustrated silhouette of a black cat nehtaeh79 http://www.freestockphotos.biz/stockphoto/16624
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Slide 16