Transcript Sample - Southington Public Schools

Mexico vs. United States
Demographic Terminology (This slide is not needed for your project)
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Rate of natural increaseb - d = r = "rate of natural increase“
We can use per capita birth (b) and death (d) rates to calculate a new parameter "r."
This parameter is essentially a per capita growth rate, and is calculated as:
r = b-d.
It is essentially the probability that any individual in the population will give birth
during the time interval (usually year), discounted for their probability of dying [3].
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Annual rate of growth- is change in population over time, and can be quantified as
the change in the number of individuals in a population per unit time. The term
population growth can technically refer to any species, but almost always refers to
humans, and it is often used informally for the more specific demographic term
population growth rate (see below), and is often used to refer specifically to the
growth of the population of the world [2].
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Total fertility rate (per woman)- is the average number of children that would be
born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the current age-specific
fertility rates through her lifetime. It is obtained by summing the age-specific rates for
a given time-point [2].
Part I: Interpreting Population Data for 2013
Because United States has a lower
fertility rate (2.1) than Mexico, the
population profile has less of a
pyramid shape. The reproductive
ages are essentially replacing their
own figures for the next generation
(0-4 age group)
Reproductive
Ages
vs.
Mexico’s fertility rate is currently 2.3,
which is slightly above the
replacement level. This means that
the women in their reproductive
years are producing more children
than the total numbers in their age
bracket. This produces a population
profile that has a pyramid shape.
Reproductive
Ages
United States Analysis
Reproductive
Ages
The Individuals within the reproductive ages (15-44) will be contributing to the next bar
(underneath the bottom red bar) in the next 5 years (the 0-4 age group). At a fertility rate
of about 2.1, the bar (which we’ll call the future yellow bar) should be roughly the
equivalent to the bars in the 15-44 age group. This profile shows a slow growth rate.
Mexico Analysis
Reproductive
Ages
The Individuals within the reproductive ages (15-44) will be contributing to the next bar
(underneath the bottom bar) in the next 5 years (the 0-4 age group). At a fertility rate of
about 2.3, the bar (which we’ll call the future bar) should be slightly higher than the bars in
the 15-44* age group. This profile resembles an rapid growth rate.
*Couples in Mexico generally have children at a younger age than those in U.S.
Statistics: 2013 vs. 2033
United States
2013
I
2033
Rate of natural increase (percent).......... 0.6% ….……0.5%
Annual rate of growth (percent)...............0.8%….…… 0.6%
Life expectancy at birth (years)............... 79………..….80
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births............. 7…….….... 6
Total fertility rate (per woman)................ 2.0……….…2.0
Mexico
2013
I
2033
Rate of natural increase (percent)..........1.6%……......1.0%
Annual rate of growth (percent)..............1.2%..……....0.6%
Life expectancy at birth (years)...............76………..….79
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births...........13……….......8
Total fertility rate (per woman)................2.3…........... 2.0
Population Profiles -2033
The fertility rate in the U.S. in 2033
is expected to be 2.0, below the
replacement level. The bottom four
bars are the offspring to the women
in their reproductive years in the last
16 years, resulting in a slow
increase in the population rate.
Reproductive
Ages
vs.
The fertility rate in Mexico in 2033
is expected to be 2.0, which is
below the replacement level. The
bottom four bars may show a
decreasing trend in the population
rate.
Reproductive
Ages
Part II: Factors Affecting Population Changes
(This slide is not needed for your project. This is just helpful notes)
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Environmental Resistance: When the population encounters resistance to
exponential growth due to environmental factors.
Carrying Capacity- The population density that can be supported by the
environment.
Natural populations grow and decline until a balance is reached between biotic
potential and environmental resistance. Humans defeat environmental
resistance with intelligence and technology [8].
A limiting factor is a factor that causes population growth to decrease. There
are two types of factors that keep populations in check. It is based upon how
dense the population is.
Populations that are left to grow naturally (without human influence) will
eventually limit their growth due to a lack of food, space, or increased population.
A balance is often achieved [8].
Three Factors that are Limiting Mexico’s Growth
Density Dependent:
1)
2)
I listed 5 as extra
examples
(factors that affect population due to a dense population)
Competition for Food- Mexico has 119,000,000 people, which is
more than one-third of what the U.S. has, but on one-fifth of the
amount of land. The demand for food is high, but the availability is
low [4].
Disease- Mexico, being a third world country, doesn’t have the
availability of certain medicines and vaccines like the U.S., so
disease may spread easier. Ex: Swine Flu epidemic of 2009.
Density Independent:
3)
4)
5)
(factors that affect population regardless of size)
Human Activities- Mexico is becoming more educated with birth
control techniques and the availability of them. Women are having
children at a later age, thus reducing the fertility rate to 2.0 in the
next 20 years [3].
Natural Disaster- Due to global warming, storms are stronger and
Mexico is a target to hurricanes, which have been known to kill
thousands of people.
Emigration- Even assuming strong economic growth and declining
birth rates in Mexico, and weak demand for workers in the United
States, emigration (to the U.S) in 30 years is still projected to be
nearly 400,000 people a year [6].
Technological Advancement:
Improvement in Schools/Education
Evidence Supporting Influence on Population Dynamics
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Better education in schools will give way to knowledge that can
help people improve their cities and villages economically which
will lead to a life where children are not needed for status and
financial support [6].
40% of Mexico is below the poverty line and the per capita
income is approximately $10,000 a year [6].
By building more schools there would be a positive influence
(reduced annual rate) on the population growth rates. As of now
10% of all women older than 15 years old cannot read or write [6].
When women are educated, there is an additional benefit in that
they too will want to hold jobs. When women have jobs, this also
leads to less children. In countries where no women are enrolled
in secondary education, the average woman has seven children,
but where 40% of all women have had a secondary education the
average drops to three children [7].
By giving developing countries the opportunity to industrialize and
improve their economies, we are not only increasing jobs and
decreasing poverty, but also decreasing the fertility rate. People
will have a choice in using some of their resources to acquire
goods, leaving a smaller amount for the raising of children [6].
If the economy is given the opportunity to develop, couples will
earn money and be able to bring their families out of poverty. This
will then give them the ability to develop social status through the
goods they possess rather than the number of children they have
[6].
References (works cited)
1.
http://www.census.gov/ipc///www/idbsum.html
2.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developed_country
3.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developing_country
4.
http://www.indexmundi.com
5.
http://www.cis.org/articles/2002/back202.html
6.
http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/populationgrowth.htm
7.
Cartledge, Bryan. Population and the Environment. Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 1995.
8.
Miller, K., Levine, J. Biology, Prentice Hall, 2002
9.
Biggs, M., Gregg, K., Hagins, W., Kapicka, C., Lundgren, L., Rillero, P.
Biology, Glenco McGraw Hill, 2000