Transcript Facing the Odds

Facing the Odds
The Mathematics of Gambling
Richard A. LaBrie
Joseph B. Martin, M.D.
Dean
Harvard Medical School
Christine Thurmond, Administrator Clare Bruff-Graves, Admin. Asst.
Gabriel Caro, Web & Technology Manager
Lymari Graciano, Financial Manager
Dennis L. Kasper, M.D.
Dean for
Academic Programs
In the Faculty of Medicine
John Knight, M.D., Associate Director, Medical Education
Howard J. Shaffer, Ph.D.
Director
Division on Addictions
Bertha Madras, Ph.D., Associate Director, Public Education
Will Brownsberger, J.D., Associate Director, Public Policy
Richard LaBrie, Ed. D., Associate Director, Research & Data Analysis
Debi LaPlante, Ph.D. Research Associate
Anthony Donato, M.P.P., Rachel Kidman, B.A. Research Assistants
Christine Reilly, Executive Director, Institute for Research on Pathological
Gambling & Related Disorders
Harvard Medical School
Division on Addictions
Institute for Research
on Pathological Gambling and Related Disorders
Intramural
Research Program
(Conducted by DOA Faculty)
Neuroscience
Neuroimaging
Methods
Technology Toolkit
Social/Psych studies
College Alcohol-Gambling Study
Extramural
Research Program
Education &
Dissemination
RFAs
Think Tanks
Grants to non-Harvard
Institutions
DOA web site
The WAGER
Annual Conference:
Understanding Gambling
Disorders
The Genesis of Facing
the Odds
Brief History
• Addiction Science Curriculum
• “… represents an innovative attempt to
increase young people's scientific literacy
while concurrently preventing or reducing
their participation in potentially addictive
behaviors.” Howard J. Shaffer, Ph.D.,
C.A.S. October 7, 1996
The International Mathematics &
Science Study*
• National Center for Education Statistics,
National Science Foundation, Office of
Educational Research and Improvement
– Eighth grade students are performing poorly
compared with their peers around the world
– Our curriculum was designed to help motivate
young people to achieve at more competitive
levels
* Pursuing Excellence: Comparisons of International Eighth-
Grade Mathematics and Science Achievement from a U.S.
Perspective, 1995 and 1999 (Gonzales et al., 2000)
The International Mathematics &
Science Study
• American eighth-graders’ mathematics
performance was similar to the Russian
Federation—outperforming 17 of 38
countries
• This level of performance was average
among the countries
• Exceeded by 14 countries
– Including Japan, Korea, England, & Canada
Brief History
Funding
A grant (#1-R25-DA09288-01) from the
National Institute on Drug Abuse
Tom and Janet Brosig
The Massachusetts Council on Compulsive
Gambling
Scientific Games, Inc.
Presentation Objectives
• Introduce “Facing the Odds”
– Brief Overview
• Review gambling & related disorders
– Evidence Based Instruction (Best
Practices)
• Curriculum modules
• Implementing “Facing the Odds”
Curriculum Overview:
Purpose
• Make math more meaningful & more fun
– by solving problems of interest
• Make math more relevant to everyday
life – by solving problems of interest
• Introduce & apply concepts of number
sense, data, statistics, and probability
through the use of gambling- and mediarelated topics
Curriculum Overview: Approach
• Unlike traditional approaches
– That usually emphasize the health benefits
associated with avoiding addictive
behaviors or attach particular values to
behaviors (i.e., good vs. bad drugs)
• This curriculum focuses on mathematics
– Uses gambling & media related issues to
present these concepts
– Reveals the mathematical realities of
various gambling activities and attempts to
reinforce critical, statistical, and
probabilistic thinking
Curriculum Overview:
Materials
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•
•
•
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12 Primary Modules
Activities
Teacher Support
Added Practice Activities
Visual Aids
Important Considerations
• Facing the Odds is not a substitute for
existing mathematics curricula
• There is flexibility in design
• Prior understanding of statistics and
probability already exists among teachers
• Teachers should teach math
– be “aware” of how lotteries & other
gambling can influence young people
thinking
Presentation Objectives
• Introduce “Facing the Odds”
– Brief Overview
• Review gambling & related disorders
– Evidence Based Instruction (Best
Practices)
• Curriculum modules
• Implementing “Facing the Odds”
Best Practices
“The
conscientious, explicit, & judicious
use of current best available external
clinical evidence from systematic
research, integrated with personal
clinical expertise, in making treatment
decisions for an individual or group.”
David Sackett, 1996
Sackett, D. I. et al. (1996). Evidence-based medicine: what
it is and what it isn't. British Medical Journal, 312, 71-72.
Factors that Influence
Treatment & Treatment
Outcome
The Common Factors
Common Factors
• Therapeutic technique factors (15-30%)
– Treatment or procedure methods
• Relationship characteristics (30%)
– Empathy, interpersonal warmth,
encouragement
• Placebo effects (15-30%)
– Hope & expectancies
• Patient’s extra-therapeutic factors (40%)
– Family, personality, education,
economics
Percentage
Students' Use, Friends' Estimated Use, &
Perceived As Very or Extremely Dangerous
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
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N=1539
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N
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Student Use Friends' Use Perceived as dangerous*
ry
e
tt
o
L
Lifetime Prevalence of Drug & Lottery Use
100
80
60
ALCOHOL
LOTTERY
40
CIGARETTES
20
COCAINE/CRACK
MARIJUANA
NARCOTICS
0
7
8
9
10
Grade
11
12
Massachusetts Department of Public Health; Health & Addictions Research; &
Massachusetts Council on Compulsive Gambling; N = 2119 (drug) & 1986 (lottery)
te
ry
nt
s
Po
Ev
e
th
er
O
Lo
t
Bi
n
go
gs
R
ac
et
ra
ck
Li
fe
or
ts
C
ar
ds
Sp
First Gambling Activities
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
N = 466
Early Gambling Experiences
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Friend
Other Family Member
Parent
Other
Sibling
N = 466
Initial Gambling Success
Won
Lost
DK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Prevalence
First Time N = 161
First Few Times N = 296
70
Frequency of Play
Bingo
Racetrack
Pogs
Other
Lottery
Life events
Cards
Sports
0
0.5
1
0=never, 1=about once every few months, 2=about once a
month, 3=a few times a month, 4=about once a week, 5=a few
times a week
1.5
2
N= 466
Grade 6-11
Gambling Preferences
Bingo
Racetrack
Pogs
Lottery
Life events
Other
Cards
Sports
0
10
20
Percent
30
40
N= 466
Grade 6-11
Perception of Gambling "Skill"
Own Skill Level
Gambling Skill Involved
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Ot
he
r
gs
Po
en
ts
Li
fe
ev
rts
Sp
o
k
etr
ac
Ra
c
Bi
ng
o
ry
tte
Lo
Ca
r
ds
0
All differences significant (paired t tests, p<.001, n=466)
Gambling Skill: 0=none, 1=small amount, 2=fair amount, 3=fairly large amount, 4=extreme amount;
Own skill: 0=not at all, 1=slightly, 2=somewhat, 3=very, 4=extremely
Perceived Skill & Characteristics of
Gambling: Correlations*
DSM IV
MAGS 7
How Often in
Last Week
How Often in
Last Year
Largest Bet
Usual Bet
Gambling
Skill
Involved
Own
Gambling
Skill
.3869
.2380
.3432
.4038
.4307
.4898
.4378
.4182
.3445
.5553
.4140
.3476
*All Correlations Significant (p<.001, n=466)
Early Warning Signs for
Gambling Problems
• Early Onset
– The younger children begin gambling, the
more likely they are to develop gambling
problems
• Amount of first bet
– The larger the amount of a first bet, the
more likely children are to develop a
gambling problem
• “Illusion” of Control
How Do You Know If Your
Kid is Addicted to Gambling?
David Letterman’s Top Ten List
April 5, 1995
David Letterman’s Top Ten List
April 5, 1995
10. Keeps asking if he can double down on
some cookies
9. Has converted hamster’s treadmill into a
crude roulette wheel
8. For a six year old, he seems to know way
too much about jai-alai
7. His school lunches are comped
6. Knows the Vegas odds on where Waldo
might be
David Letterman’s Top Ten List
(Continued)
5. There’s a bookie sleeping in his treehouse
4. Changed his middle name to “the Greek”
3. He’s 9 and he’s dating a showgirl
2. Says things like “Daddy needs a new
skateboard”
1. He likes to ride Amtrak
Gambling Connections
• Disordered Gamblers have cognitive
difficulty understanding
– Independent events
– Risk-taking
– Odds and probability
– “Illusion of control”
• Failure to understand random events
Presentation Objectives
• Introduce “Facing the Odds”
– Brief Overview
• Review gambling & related disorders
– Consider the implications for teaching
math
• Curriculum modules
• Implementing “Facing the Odds”
12 Facing the Odds Modules
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Thinking about averages
Number sense
Statistics in everyday life
Heads or tails?
Shared birthdays
Becoming a legend
12 Facing the Odds Modules
(continued)
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•
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You bet your life!
The gambler’s fallacy
Winning and losing the lottery
Red and black marbles
Realities of winning the lottery
Work behaviors of lottery winners
1-1
Objectives
Introduce students to the basic
concepts of probability, including:
 randomness
 combined probability
 dependent events
 independent events
 gambler’s fallacy
1-7
Is an Event Dependent
or Independent?
INDEPENDENT
The outcome of the 1st event
does not affect the outcome
of the 2nd event
DEPENDENT
The outcome of the 1st event
does affect the outcome of
the 2nd event
1-8
Gambler’s Fallacy
Mistaking independent
events for dependent
events
In reality, the outcomes are
completely independent
Presentation Objectives
• Introduce “Facing the Odds”
– Brief Overview
• Review gambling & related disorders
– Consider the implications for teaching
math
• Curriculum modules
• Implementing “Facing the Odds”
Journalists are Like Scientists
• It’s sometimes important for
journalists to know how to
forget the things they are surest
of.
What the Sun-Times was Saying
• Mark Brown (August 7, 2001):
– The curriculum introduces & teaches
youngsters to gamble
• Games of chance are based upon mathematics;
the curriculum simply teaches the mathematics
of everyday life
– Curriculum is critical of the lottery
• Mathematical principles are critical of state &
regional lotteries; however, psycho-economics
often offsets the facts
Sun-Times (continued)
– Curriculum was funded by the gaming
industry
• NIDA & the Massachusetts Council on
Compulsive Gambling funded the
curriculum
• American Gaming Association provided
funding for some distribution copies
– You should create your own curriculum
• Its takes years to create a curriculum and
more years to evaluate it
• More curriculum choices are useful
• This curriculum was developed on the
basis of a needs assessment
Available Resources &
Links
• www.hms.harvard.edu/doa
• www.thewager.com
• Journal of Gambling Studies
• Nancy Beben (225.342.3946)