Transcript Not knowing what information is!

Research and Analysis
for Management
MGMT 6272
Fall 2014
Dr. Dennis E. Clayson
The class can be found online at
www.business.uni.edu/clayson/MBA
The first part of this module will be more
philosophical than others.
The second half will be more practical
than other modules.
A business manager must make decisions
To make good decisions a manager must have
information
To use information to make decisions, a manager
must know what
information is!
To use information to make decisions, a manager
must know what information is
And how information is created
And Used !
Mangers typically make
four mistakes….
Mistake 1: Not
knowing what information is!
Mistake 2: Not
knowing what to do with information!
Mistake 3:
Not seeking
Information!
Mistake 4: Not knowing when information is good or bad!
Much of the information that is utilized for management decisions
comes from numbers….
OR is calculated from numbers,
OR is explained
by numbers….
This, however, creates a fundamental
problem!
Most people are:
Inumerate…
i.e.
They are illiterate with numbers.
Numerical concepts to them are very confusing….
Actual Examples
We had to have the garage door repaired. The Sears repairman told us
that one of our problems was that we did not have a 'large' enough
motor on the opener. I thought for a minute, and said that we had the
largest one Sears made at that time, a 1/2 horsepower. He shook his
head and said, 'Lady, you need a 1/4 horsepower.' I responded that 1/2
was larger than 1/4. He said, 'NO, it's not..' Four is larger than two.'
My daughter and I went through the McDonald's take-out window and I
gave the clerk a $5 bill. Our total was $4.25, so I also handed her a
quarter. She said, 'you gave me too much money.' I said, 'Yes I know,
but this way you can just give me a dollar bill back. She sighed and
went to get the manager, who asked me to repeat my request. I did so,
and he handed me back the quarter, and said 'We're sorry but we could
not do that kind of thing.' The clerk then proceeded to give me back $1
and 75 cents in change.
They are not quite sure what to do with numbers
when they get them……
Introduction
Section 2
Topic:
What is knowing?
What are we doing when we are knowing?
Phrenology: A science? based on the shape of your head.
Everything we
KNOW about the
outside world comes
from our own brains.
There is no exception
to this!
Everything we KNOW has to come from a perception formed by our
own mind.
Descartes wrote:
Rene Descartes
(1596 – 1650)
“Our inquires should be directed
not to what others have thought,
not to what we ourselves conjecture,
but to what we can clearly
and perspicuously behold
and with certainty deduce;
for knowledge is not won in any other way.”
Vico states:
“The criterion
and rule of the true is to have
made it.”
Giambattista Vico
(1668 – 1744)
The principle states that truth is
verified through creation or invention
and not through observation.
The difference:
1. Knowing something….
or
2. Knowing how to do something….
1. Knowing something: implies that we know facts.
There are three bones in the inner ear.
The equatorial radius of the earth is 6,378.14 meters.
The value of pi is 3.14159….
2. Knowing how to do something:
Suppose a student “knew that”
the value of pi was 3.14159…,
does the student know what
the circumference of a circle
is which has a radius of 4.0 meters?
Not necessarily.
Vico made the argument that the student’s knowledge
was incomplete until he or she could use that
knowledge to
create something.
In business, it could be argued that both types
of knowledge are valuable.
Emphasis on one without the other leads
to problems when people get lazy.
“Knowing something” tends to rely on ideology.
“Knowing how to do something” tends to put
more trust in tradition.
“Knowing something” would encourage a company
or government officer to insist that there be
“equal pay for equal work.”
This is ideology.
It could guide or correct very little,
because there are many things which determine salary
including other ideologies.
“Knowing how to do something,” on the other hand,
may predispose a company to pay workers in a traditional
fashion that has worked well in the past,
but which should be replaced by a better system.
Knowledge creates knowledge
because proper knowing creates more knowing!
Topic:
Logic and Research
Logic and Research
Opinion
=
Belief
or
Guess
Are all opinions equal?
Yes! In that everyone can have them.
No!
In that every opinion has to be based on
something.
Opinions about my car needing repair are NOT equal.
Some persons’ opinion about the stock market are
more valuable than others!!
Logic and Research
Opinion
=
Hypothesis =
Belief
or
Guess
Opinion that
can be tested
Hypo
=
Under
Thesis
=
Idea or thought
Hypothesis
=
Underlying idea
Logic and Research
Opinion
Hypothesis =
Statistic
= Method of calculating
probability
Logic and Research
Opinion
Hypothesis =
Statistic
= Method of calculating
probability
Characteristic of a
sample
A statistic is a characteristic of
a group.
It tells you nothing about an individual
except for a probability.
In the U.S.
Asian Americans have an average IQ higher than African Americans
What does this tell you about Thomas Sowell?
What do statistics tell us
about this person?
She is 40 years old.
She has a MD degree.
She works in Vancouver.
Can you now make a good guess about
her income and position?
She is 40 years old.
She has a MD degree.
She works in Vancouver.
Can you make a good guess about
whether she is married?
Statistic: Education majors have the lowest standardized scores
(ACT, Iowa Basic, etc.) of any majors on campus.
Statistic: Education majors have the lowest standardized scores
(ACT, Iowa Basic, etc.) of any majors on campus.
An education major says, “That can’t be true. Both my friend
and I had the highest ACT scores in my high school and we are
both education majors. I am highly offended by your slur.”
Statistic: Education majors have the lowest standardized scores
(ACT, Iowa Basic, etc.) of any majors on campus.
An education major says, “That can’t be true. Both my friend
and I had the highest ACT scores in my high school and we are
both education majors. I am highly offended by your slur.”
What is wrong with this logic?
Logic and Research
Opinion
Hypothesis =
Statistic
= Method of calculating
probability
Characteristic of a
sample
Research findings
= Results of controlled
research procedures
Be careful here…..
Research findings do not mean that something
is true!
They simply increase the probability….
Fact
=
Reality
An unmarried women with a child has
an average income of X Dollars.
An married woman with a child has
an average income of 10X Dollars.
What are these statements?
What can you tell me
about this woman?
Is this woman poor?
How would you
wager?
Now… I tell you that she
has a husband.
How would you
wager now?
Logic and statistics are sometimes
difficult in the real world….
Take the NBA as an example!
The ratio of Afro-American to Euro-Americans
in the NBA is about 4:1
The ratio of Afro-Americans to Euro-Americans
in the USA is about 1:6
The probability of an Afro-American child becomes a NBA
star is 24 times larger than an Euro-American child….
Why?
Theory is fun…
Reality can be very hard and messy….
American Social Security
When to Start Collecting?
At 66, you will get about $2,200/month…
At 70, you will get about $3,000/month…
But you would have to give up $2,200/month
for 4 years, or $105,600….
After 70, it would take 132 months (11 years) to make up
the difference …
So, if you thought you would die before you are 81…
take the money now….
What decision will you make??
At 66, you will get about $2,200/month…
At 70, you will get about $3,000/month…
What decision will you make??
What information do you want
before you make this decision?
But……….
How long do people actually live?
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html
Global Warming
Co2
Temp
Sun Spot
Number
1,122 Record Cold
Temps in the U.S. in
one week
July in the USA ends on a frigid note as
record cold outpaces warmth nearly 10 to 1
71% Of The US Below Normal Temperature
in 2013
South America in massive deep freeze
July 20, 2013