Transcript Document

Soc 695 Family Violence Research In World Perspective
Murray A. Straus
TRENDS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE
PREVALENCE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE
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Are child abuse and partner abuse increasing?
Why does the public think crime is increasing?
What explains the trends?
What are the implications of these explanations for
individuals and for society?
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TRENDS IN
CHILD ABUSE
These are the
figures you are
used to seeing
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REPORTED AND CONFIRMED
CASES OF
CHILD ABUSE, IRELAND 1984-1997
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
15 TIMES MORE
CASES IN 1997.
PUBLIC SERVICE
ANNOUNCEMENT
S: “AN EPIDEMIC
OF CHILD ABUSE”
ALTERNATIVE
EXPLANATION?
84 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997
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• Severe: hitting a child
with a belt, paddle,
hairbrush on buttocks.
• Very Severe: hit with
object on some other
part of the body, kick,
punch, choke, burn.
Which showed the
biggest decrease?
• Severe
140 – 55 = 85 85/140 =
61% decrease
• Very Severe
35 – 5 = 30
30/35 = 86% decrease
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TO MAKE SENSE OUT OF THE TRENDS
REQUIRES DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN AN
INTERVENTION RATE AND A PREVALENCE RATE
Intervention Rate = Cases known to service providers.
Example: crime rates based on police calls, child
abuse rates based on cases reported to Child
Protective Services
Prevalence Rate = Cases known on the basis of data for
the population in general.
Example: National Crime Victimization Survey,
National Family Violence Surveys
Can Lead To Different Conclusions: "Once partner
violence starts, it continues or escalates"
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TRENDS IN CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE CASES
KNOWN TO CHILD PROTECTIVE SERVICES
 1970 – 1980: TREMENDOUS INCREASES – 10% PER YEAR
 1992 – 2002: 44% DECREASE (Finkelhor & Jones, 2004).
Similar decreases in other countries
Canada
Great Britain
Sweden
Australia
New Zealand
Spain
Israel
 COULD REFLECT CHANGE IN PUBLIC WILLINGNESS TO
REPORT OR AGENCY WILLINGNESS TO CONFIRM
 NEED FOR INDEPENDENT DATA FROM EPIDEMIOLOGICAL
SURVEYS
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In physical abuse
In sexual abuse
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RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH
(Annual Prevalence)
•PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN
Cases known to State Agencies:
Cases uncovered in NFV surveys:
PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN
Cases reported in NVAW surveys:
Cases reported in NFV surveys:
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Number per Year
500,000
1,500,000
1,300,000
6.000,000
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VIOLENCE AGAINST PARTNERS:
HUGE INCREASE IN CASES OF
KNOWN TO SERVICE PROVIDERS
SHELTERS FOR BATTERED WOMEN
First one in 1973
More every year
Now over 2,000
POLICE REPORTS OF FAMILY VIOLENCE
Climbed every year from 1980
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UNH NATIONAL FAMILY VIOLENCE SURVEYS
FOUND LARGE DECREASE IN PV BY MEN, BUT NOT BY WOMEN
This article was named a “citation classic”
WHY SO FREQUENTLY CITED?
TO CRITICIZE AND DENOUNCE
Example: Richard Berk: "Given all we
know about the pattern of crime
statistics, a 47% drop is so
unprecedented as to be unbelievable.
Never before has there been
a drop of that magnitude, that rapidly.“
But, contrary to Berk, other crime rates
have changed that much and that fast.
Homicide rate, for example, increased
by over 100% between 1963 and 1973
WHAT HAVE OTHER STUDIES SINCE
THEN FOUND?
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WHAT COULD EXPLAIN THE DISCREPANCY?
HOW COULD BOTH BE CORRECT?
Boston Herald 29 Dec 05
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ILLUSTRATIONS OF HUGE INCREASES THAT REFLECT
DOING MORE ABOUT THE PROBLEM (intervention rate),
NOT AN INCREASE IN THE PROBLEM (prevalence rate)
CHILD ABUSE IN FLORIDA
• Before the mandatory reporting and a hotline, there are about 1,000 cases
• The year after the hotline was established there were 9,000
DOMESTIC ABUSE HOTLINE FOR MEN
• In the first year (2000) there was about a call a day
• In 2004 there were about 7 per day -- a seven-fold increase
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Partner Violence by Both Men And
Women has Decresed ( NCVS)
Victimizations per 1000 people
10.0
8.0
Male Perpetrators
49% decrease
6.0
4.0
2.0
Female Perpetrators
42% decrease
0.0
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20
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20
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Rennison, 2003
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VIOLENCE
AGAINST
PARTNERS
National Family
Violence
Surveys
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RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH
(Annual Prevalence)
•PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN
Cases known to State Agencies:
Cases uncovered in NFV surveys:
PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN
Cases reported in NVAW surveys:
Cases reported in NFV surveys:
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Number per Year
500,000
1,500,000
1,300,000
6.000,000
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TREND IN FAMILY VIOLENCE CASES KNOWN TO
SERVICE PROVIDERS AND AS FOUND BY
EPIDEMOLOGICAL SURVEYS
Rate of
Family
Violence
(Hypothetical)
WHY THIS
HUGE
INCREASE?
Intervention
effort – case
finding
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Epidemiological Data
(A Prevalence Rate)
Service Provider Data
(An Intervention Rate)
1970
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WHY THE
DECREASE
NOW ?
Decrease in
prevalence
is now
greater than
new case
finding.
WHY?
1980
1990
2000
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WHY DOES THE PUBLIC THINK
FAMILY VIOLENCE AND OTHER CRIME IS
INCREASING?
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Rates did increase for 20 years
Press coverage has increased
Intervention rates taken as prevalence rates
Advocacy groups for family violence victims continually
talk about “epidemics” which public
interprets as
“increase”
• Rising public expectations for quality of life make the
cases more disturbing
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MEDIA COVERAGE OFTEN MISREPRESENTS
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WHAT EXPLAINS THE DECREASE
IN FAMILY VIOLENCE?
NINE OF THE MANY PROCESSES
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EXPLANATION #1: THE CIVILIZATION EFFECT (N. Elias)
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EXPLANATION #2: INTERVENTIONS TO LOWER CHILD
ABUSE AND PARTNER VIOLENCE
• Public awareness & education
* Take Back The Night
* TV dramas
• Hot lines
• Shelters
• Home visiting programs
• School abuse prevention programs
• Increased efforts at case detection by
Pediatricians, Teachers, school nurses, others
• Presumptive arrest policy
• More Prosecution
• Batterer treatment programs
• Incarceration
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THE RESULT: THE TYPES OF FAMILY VIOLENCE THAT HAVE BEEN
THE FOCUS OF PREVENTION EFFORTS DECREASED THE MOST
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Steps to
implement vary
from almost
none to very
extensive
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EXPLANATION #3:
CULTURAL
NORMS
TOLERATING
PARTNER
ASSAULT HAVE
CHANGED
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EXPLANATION
#4: GREATER
EQUALITY
BETWEEN MEN
AND WOMEN
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EXPLANATION #5
CHANGES IN FAMILY
COMPOSITION AND ORGANIZATION
• Later age at marriage
• Later age at first child (for people marring at the same age)
• Fewer children
• Greater acceptability of divorce
WHY DO THESE CHANGES LOWER CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER
VIOLENCE
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EXPLANATION #6: THE RULE OF LAW COMES TO THE FAMILY
PROBABILITY OF ASSAULTING A PARTNER BY PERCEIVED
PROBABILITY OF BEING ARRESTED (Ramirez, 2003)
NEW
LAWS
AND
POLICE
POLICY
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EXPLANATION
#7 DECREASE IN
USE OF
CORPORAL
PUNISHMENT
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BETTER EDUCATED PARENTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BELIEVE THAT
"WHEN A BOY IS GROWING UP, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HIM
TO HAVE A FEW FISTFIGHTS"
EXPLANATION
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BETTER
EDUCATEDPO
PULAT-ION
30
25
20
EDUCATED
PEOPLE ARE
MORE LIKELY
TO REALIZE
THAT FEW
THINGS HAVE
SIMPLE CAUSES
AND SIMPLE
SOLUTIONS –
LIKE HITTING
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10
5
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IN 1968, 75% OF THE ADULT POPULATION AGREED
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1995 GALLUP DISCIPLINE SURVEY (N=1000)
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EXPLANATION
#9 LESS
ECONOMIC
STRESS
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THESE ARE JUST NINE OF THE MANY
INTERRELATED CHANGES MAKING FOR A LESS
VIOLENT WORLD, INCLUDING LESS FAMILY
VIOLENCE
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Historical trend away from personal violence
Application of the rule of law to the family
Change in cultural norms tolerating family violence
Programs to end child abuse, wife beating, bullying
Growth in equality between men and women
Other changes in family composition and organization
Decrease in use of corporal punishment
Better educated population
Less economic stress
MANY OTHER FACTORS, for example, tremendous growth in family
counseling and therapy
OVERALL: The civilization effect
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THE FUTURE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE
• PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS ALWAYS RISKY
Parking lots in New York
• ALL FORMS OF FAMILY VIOLENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FOR THE SAME REASONS AS THE PAST DECLINE
• THERE WILL BE UPS AND DOWNS AROUND THE TREND LINE
Some groups may experience increases, such as those suffered
by inner city families during the crack cocaine epidemic
• THE BENEFITS WILL BE ENORMOUS
* For individuals, less: mental illness, unhappy marriages, divorce,
higher IQ, more education, better job performance, etc, etc.
* For society, Lower: rates of all types of crime, lower costs for criminal
justice and welfare, higher economic productivity, etc.
A HEALTHIER, WEALTHIER, AND WISER SOCIEITY
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END FOR SOC 695
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