Transcript Slide 1

“The annual accidental death toll for handgunrelated incidents is slightly under 200”
Type of Accident or Manner of Injury
1996
Firearm Missile, E922
1,134
Handgun
187
Shotgun (automatic)
93
Hunting rifle
50
Other and unspecified firearms missile 804
Actual handgun total is 187 + some unknown
fraction of the 804, likely much more than 200.
Offenders Sentenced in U.S. District Courts under
the U.S. Sentencing Commission guidelines (fiscal
year 1999)
Primary
offense
Total
cases
Total
55,388
Sexual abuse 230
bIncludes
Race: Otherb
Number
Percent
2,189
4.0%
159
69.4%
Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Asians, and Pacific Islanders.
The
The statistics
are limited
to
230 explanation:
is pretty few sexual
abuse cases
for the
federal
cases, and
whole country,
isn’tthe
it? federal government very
rarely prosecutes sexual abuse (which is mostly
U.S.
District
Courts
–
just
what
courts
are
a state law crime) – except on Indian
those?
reservations.
Find
1.
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3.
4.
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were
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and legal counts.
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matter
how many
people are
surveyed.)
Study: 15% of N.Y. drivers 16-25 drive drunk at
least once a month.
Minnesota commentator: 15% of driving-age
teenagers drive drunk at least once a month.
1. Generalizing across places and times—make
clear that the numbers refer to the N.Y. study, at
the time the study was done.
2. Inferring from group’s behavior to a subset’s
behavior—do teenage drivers (16-18 or 16-19)
behave the same way as 18/19-25-year-olds?
3. Misreporting the study—the study focused on
fraction of drivers who drive drunk, not on fraction
of teenagers who drive drunk.
[Article:]
a handgun
is six times
more likely
to be used
to kill a
friend or
relative
than to
repel a
burglar
[A:] a handgun brought
into the home
for the purposes of selfprotection is
six times more
likely to kill a
relative or
acquaintance
than to repel a
burglar
(i) Small error: “friend” is false
synonym for “acquaintance.”
[B:] During [1958-73
in Cuyahoga County],
only 23 burglars,
robbers or intruders
who were not relatives
or acquaintances
were killed by guns in
the hands of persons
who were protecting
their homes. During
this same interval, six
times as many fatal
firearm accidents
occurred in the home.
[Article:] a
handgun is
six times
more likely to
be used to
kill a friend
or relative
than to repel
a burglar
[B:] During [1958-73 in Cuyahoga
County], only 23 burglars, robbers or
intruders who were not relatives or
acquaintances were killed by guns in
the hands of persons who were
protecting their homes. During this
same interval, six times as many fatal
firearm accidents occurred in the
home.
(ii) “Handgun” is a false synonym for “gun.”
(iii) “Kill a friend or relative” isn’t “fatal firearm accident.”
(iv) “Repel” isn’t “kill.”
(v) “Burglar” isn’t “burglar, robber or intruder.”
(vi) Make clear when you’re inferring from a specific time
and place to the whole country at a different time.
[Article:] a
handgun is
six times
more likely to
be used to
kill a friend
or relative
than to repel
a burglar
[B:] During [1958-73 in Cuyahoga
County], only 23 burglars, robbers or
intruders who were not relatives or
acquaintances were killed by guns in
the hands of persons who were
protecting their homes. During this
same interval, six times as many fatal
firearm accidents occurred in the
home.
(1) Watch for false synonyms.
(2) Watch for inferences from one context to another.
(3) Look at the original source (B) and not just the
intermediate source (A).
(4) Be careful. Be skeptical.
[Article:] a
person who
uses a handgun in selfdefense is
eight times
more likely to
be killed than
one who
quietly
acquiesces
[A:] A survey of Chicago robberies in
1975 revealed that, of those victims
taking no resistance measures, the
probability of death was 7.67 per 1000
robbery incidents, while the death rate
among those taking self-protection
measures was 64.29 per 1000 robbery
incidents. The victim was 8 times
more likely to be killed when using a
self-protective measure than not!
(vi½) Silent generalization from Chicago robberies
in 1975 to all crimes at any time anywhere.
(vii) Silent inference from “self-protection
measures” generally to defensive handgun use.
Here’s the actual data on deaths associated with
various self-protection measures, from source C:
Method of Victim Self-Protection
Physical force
With Weapon Not a gun
Handgun
Verbal Denial of goods
Verbal Shouting
Flight
Verbal or Phys. Resis. & Flight
Unknown
None
TOTAL
Deaths
7 (6.1%)
0
0
2 (4.5%)
2 (3.7%)
7 (18.9%)
0
23 (79.3%)
7 (0.8%)
48 (3.9%)
Total
114
5
6
44
54
37
20
29
913
1222
The “death rate among those taking self-protection
measures” (64.29/1000=18/280) says nothing about
the death rate among those who use a handgun.
[Article:] a
person who
uses a handgun in selfdefense is
eight times
more likely to
be killed than
one who
quietly
acquiesces
[A:] A survey of Chicago robberies in
1975 revealed that, of those victims
taking no resistance measures, the
probability of death was 7.67 per 1000
robbery incidents, while the death rate
among those taking self-protection
measures was 64.29 per 1000 robbery
incidents. The victim was 8 times
more likely to be killed when using a
self-protective measure than not!
(1) Watch for false synonyms. (2) Check original sources.
(3) Avoid confusing language—by surrounding the quoted
text with discussion of handguns, source A misled the reader
into thinking that the quoted text was talking about handguns.