Transcript Current Operations and Ongoing Development of the BlueSky

Current Status and Ongoing
Development of BlueSky
Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service)
Dana Sullivan, Sean Raffuse, Chris Ovard, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology)
Lamb/Vaughan NASA ROSES Project Meeting
UW, April 13, 2007
BlueSky Framework
WEATHER FORECAST
MODEL OUTPUT
FIRE INFORMATION
REPORTING SYSTEMS
FUEL LOADING
MET INTERPRETER
CONSUMPTION
EMISSIONS
TRAJECTORIES
DISPERSION
SMOKE TRAJECTORY &
CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS
Framework is
• Modular
• Open-sourced
• Portable
BlueSky Framework
WEATHER FORECAST
MODEL OUTPUT
FIRE INFORMATION
REPORTING SYSTEMS
MM5
WRF
Wildfire ICS 209
FASTRACS
LOADING
RAZU
FCCS
Manual
Hardy (West)
Other
NFDRS
FUEL
MET INTERPRETER
CONSUMPTION
CALMM5
EMISSIONS
CONSUME 1.02
CONSUME 3
BURNUP
EPM
FEPS
BURNUP
Idealized profile
HYSPLIT
TRAJECTORIES
DISPERSION
CALPUFF
HYSPLIT
SMOKE TRAJECTORY &
CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS
Framework is
• Modular
• Open-sourced
• Portable
Real-time products using BlueSky
FCAMMS
(5 regional centers,
covering lower 48)
BlueSky + RAINS = BlueSkyRAINS
AirPACT3 & ClearSky
(PNW, Lamb & Vaughan, WSU)
NWS Smoke
Forecast Product
(lower 48)
BlueSky-West Frank Church Evaluation:
Findings and Recommendations
Bluesky models long-range transport very well.
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Plume Rise
• Fires are currently
modeled as single
plumes, lofting
smoke
unrealistically high
and lowering ground
impacts
Modeled
Reality
• In reality, fires are
made of many
burning areas lofting
smoke to various
heights
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Fire Information Issues
U.S. Fire Report Locations
Fire information
can be of poor
quality
Smoke predictions
depend on the fire
information
Courtesy Tim Brown, DRI
Which model is best?
Light
Fuel Loadings
(even in the same veg type)
can vary hugely
Heavy
Photos courtesy Ottmar et al.
TONS PER KACRE
300
250
Total PM 2.5 Emissions
FCCS
Emissions based on
Fuel Load and Fuel
Consumption Model
Choices
HARDY
200
NFDRS
150
100
50
0
EPM
FEPS
FOFEM
Frank Church
Consume3
EPM
FEPS
FOFEM
Rex Creek
Consume3
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The Next-Generation BlueSky
AirFire, Sonoma Technology, Inc.,
and NASA ROSES Grant




Facilitate sustained operations.
Improve inputs and settings.
Enhance user experience and access.
Add user-oriented functions.
 Continue benchmarking performance.
courtesy W. Hao
BlueSky
Framework
(new)
• Revamped code-base
(Professional)
• More models
• More modular
• More reliable
• Eliminate variants
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SMARTFIRE:
Incorporating satellite fire data
Ground-based
systems
Satellite fire info
(NOAA HMS)
Expert Users
(e.g. Incident
Command Teams)
SMARTFIRE
Reconciled fire info
including sub-grid fuels
and plume information
BLUESKY
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August - September 2005
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Cave Creek Complex Fire Area Comparison
200
150
MODIS 750-m Daily
MODIS 1-km daily
ICS-209 Daily
BARC Cumulative
ICS-209 Cumulative
MODIS 750-m Cum.
MODIS 1-km Cum.
450
400
350
300
250
200
100
150
100
50
50
0
6/22
0
6/24
6/26
6/28
6/30
7/2
7/4
7/6
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Cumulative Acres (thousands)
Daily Acres (thousands)
250
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S. Raffuse, Sonoma Tech
BlueSky
Data
Welcome, Sean Raffuse
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My Account
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Overview Animations National Coordination Weather Related Links User Guide Help
Current Tool: Zoom In
Overview Map
Legend
Scenario
Advanced
PST
Advance Hour
Modeled Surface Parameter
Predicted PM2.5 – 12 km
Modeled Wind Parameter
Surface Winds – 12 km
Measured Parameter
PM2.5 – AIRNow
Contact Us Privacy and Security Statistics
Go to Default Map Set as Default Map Clear Default Map
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Summary: Coming Soon
This spring:
 Reconciled satellite data (SMARTFIRE)
 Initial BlueSky Framework rewrite available
 Consistent BlueSky predictions across all
FCAMMS + consistent RAINS implementation
Later this year:
 Integrated national 36km CMAQ grid + higherresolution regional FCAMMS forecasts
 Revised interface (AIRNowTech? RAINS2?)
 Partnering with AIRNow
By next year (?):
 Ability to ‘what-if’ prescribed burns
 Ensemble forecasts
The Future?
•
International?
(Satellite fire detects don’t stop
at border)
•
Incorporate all fire info sources
(SMARTFIRE?)
•
Run overall grid
(e.g. 36km CMAQ, other)
•
Have this feed more
regional applications
- all in one [AQ need]
(CMAQ, WRF-CHEM, other)
- smoke management specific
(turn fires off/on, etc...)(CALPUFF/HYSPLIT)
User Needs
2 Distinct Smoke Forecasting Needs

for Air Quality
What is going to happen?
would ideally like 1 number
(possibly w/uncertainty or probability distribution)
care about all types of pollutants (not just smoke)

for Smoke Management
What if? (I do this) (or that) (or that other thing)
would ideally like to know what if? to a large number of
management choices
Mostly just care about smoke
These two distinct user groups lead to different (but
related) systems
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A Possible Solution
Overall National Grid
All-in-one (one atmosphere)
Coarser grid
Regional Grids
Higher resolution
• CMAQ
• ~36 km grid
• 1 run
• all pollutants
• EPA
• NWS
• 1-4 km grids
(finer?)
Decisions impacting smoke
Regional AQ
• CMAQ
• all pollutants
• 1 run
• EPA / NWS / ?
Smoke Management
• many runs
• smoke only
• CALPUFF / HYSPLIT
• USFS / USDOI / ?
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