Transcript Slide 1
White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College [email protected]; [email protected] http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm White Flight? Save our Census! • The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. • Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. • The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013. Quintiles (ONS LS 2011) Diverse fifth of Homogeneous fourWards fifths of Wards White British net outflow Minority net outflow 2011 40.7% Minority 4.9% Minority 2001 27.8% Minority 2.4% Minority 1991 19.8% Minority 1.5% Minority % Change in Ethnic Minorities in Ward Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, 1991-2011 (BHPS/UKHLS) % Ethnic Minority in Ward a year ago Predictive Margins with 95% CIs 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Probability of move to less diverse ward quintile Predicted Probability of Move Away from Diversity, Inter-ward Movers, 2001-11 (ONS LS) 1 Most Diverse Ward 2 3 white01quint whbrit11=0 4 whbrit11=1 5 Whitest ward White Flight?: Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013 Moved To Moved To More Diverse Whiter Ward Ward past 10 past 10 yrs yrs Sample Not White British White British Total 53% 47% 47 62% 60% 38% 40% 239 286 Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey) To Whiter To Diverse Sample very comfortable 61% 39% 83 fairly comfortable neither comfortable n fairly uncomfortable very uncomfortable don't know Total 67% 33% 33 57% 43% 46 64% 36% 11 76% 58% 63% 24% 42% 37% 25 24 222 Cultural Amenities not Ethnocentrism • “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978 • White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move • Cultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition Future Research • Look at individual ethnic minorities to screen out friends & family effect • Each ethnic group is relatively attracted to own area, i.e. Caribbeans to Caribbean areas, but white/minority appears to remain important