Transcript Management rizika

Risk Analysis and Management
in Construction Projects
Part 1 – RA
Milík Tichý
[email protected]
+420 608 818 016
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Who's Milík Tichý ?
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Structural engineering
Concrete structures
Structural Loads
Structural Reliability, Codes of Practice
Construction Project Management
Risk Analysis and Management
Expert Witness
Arbitrator
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Risk Governance, RG
Risk Analysis, RA
Risk Management, RM
Risk Engineering, RE
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RISK GOVERNANCE
Risk
Engineering
Risk
Management
Hazard Identification
Risk Management
system
Risk
Analysis
Risk Response
Risk Monitoring
Measures
Take
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Treat
Terminate
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Transfer
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RA and RM
Risk Analysis
– problem identification
– systems identification (hazard
sources and project segments)
– hazards identification
– hazards qualificationn
– risk quantification
– conclusions for Risk Managers
and Decision-Makers
– monitoring
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Risk Management
– decisions on risk,
– identification of summary risk
exposure,
– hazard and risk governance,
– hazard materialization
monitoring,
– risk connected costs evaluation
– information support to the
decision-maker
...
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Aims of RA/RM
 minimization of financial
risks:
 minimization of
damage to
– health and life
– property
 simplification of
–
–
–
–
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design
construction
use
cost control
– keep up with the assumed
cash flows, budgets, time
schedules, etc.
– creation and allocation of
budget contingency funds
– base for insurance/reinsurance, bank guarantees
 making risks "visible"
to Decision Makers
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Scope of RA/RM
"Object/process" aspect
Object
Process
––––––––––––––––––––- –––––––––––––––––––––
– tollway Dxx
– section 80.-160. km
– pavement
– toll gates
...
– traffic A => B in AUG
– traffic B => A in JAN
– winter maintenance
...
object ↔ process
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Scope of RA/RM
Project Aspect
Project = a planned, controlled, and continuously evaluated set of material or
immaterial activities delimitated by human, financial, and natural sources leading to
achievement of specified goals




Construction project:
goal: transfer of financial capital to material capital
Maintenance project:
goal: securing the properties of the object or process
(in general sense)
Risk management project:
goal: minimization of loss which the object or process may be
exposed
(performance optimization of human and financial resources)
Project aspect:
a specified set of project evaluation approaches (performance, financing,
safety, …, social, environmental, …, insurance)
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Basic concepts of RA
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Descriptions and Variables
Descriptions
Hazard – Hz
(hazard severity Sv)
Hazard scenario – Sc
Likelihood – Lk
Variables
Probability – Pr
Damage – Dm
Random variables
in space and time
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Hazard sources
Man:
Nature:
individuals
groups
authorities
(in various qualities)
"Spring–Summer–Fall–
Winter"
"Sun–Earth–Water–Air–
Life"
cosmic bodies…
Anthropogenic sources
Natural sources
Combination: "Man–Nature"
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Project segments
Project segment = a physical, organizational or
defined in other way unit (e.g.., construction phase,
object field, network section, organization element of
a company)
Segment of an aspect
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Concurrences
Concurrence of a hazard source
and a hazard exposed segment
Is it possible ?
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The Three Questions of RA
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Everyday questions:
 What failures can be expected in the Project
considered?
 How often do such failures occur?
 What happens after the failure?
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Everyday questions
re-asked by riskologists
 What hazards and what hazard scenarios do
exist in the Project?
 What is the probability of a hazard/scenario
occurrence?
 What are the consequences of hazard's
materialization?

ESTIMATE of the risk
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1st Question:
Hazards
and Hazard Scenarios ?
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Hazard fuzzy qualification
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none
minimal
zero
some
almost none
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large
unacceptable
high
extreme
horrendous
Relativity of hazards
assessment of hazards depends on evaluators
Range of a hazard exposure
individual, group, … , space, time
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Object and process
as hazard source and/or hazard recipient
H1
Q2
H2
Q1
Hi Q
1
Q3
Hn
H1
H3
Hi
Qk
Qk
Qm
Object = a process that came to standstill
Process = an object in 4-D
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Human Attitudes to Events,
Phenomena, and Persons
Confidence = willingness of a Person to be exposed to the will
of other Person or to a Body
Objects of confidence are always Persons or Bodies
Reliance = state of mind based on experience, observation, or
instruction, expressing the supposition that future events will
take the expected course
Objects of reliance are phenomena, events, and Persons
E.g.:
• Parliament voted confidence in government.
• Farmer relies on clement weather during the crop period.
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Human attitudes to hazards/risks
 Hazard source
(active factor)
 Risk evaluator
 Decision-maker –
on hazard/risk
 Risk carrier
(active factor)
 Risk recipient
(passive factor)
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Man as the source of fallacies
and errors
Fallacy: action based on erroneous
opinions, conclusions, etc.
Error: nonobservance of rules, guidance,
etc., nonperformance due to negligence,
etc.
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Transgressions
 negligence
 bad habit
 malicious intent
– property benefit
– social or political benefit
– self contention
 good intent
 exceptional circumstances
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2nd Question:
Probability ?
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Required information on probability
•
Required: Occurrence probability of a particular
hazard scenario during the reference period Tref and
on the reference space Ωref
Procedures used:
 analytic estimate:
– aprioristic ― assessment based on data from past
observations;
– aposterioristic ― assessment based on mathematical
models and observation data;
 empirical estimate – single or group expert estimate,
based on experience
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3rd Question:
Damage ?
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Properties of "Damage"
 Any damage is a random variable (space-and-time
dependent)
 Damage is expressed in terms of Harm caused
(material, monetary, physical, psychical, harm to
health and life…).
 Description of damage cannot be generalized.
Two basic approaches:
 objective: a qualified analysis and estimate of
consequences
 subjective: decision of the person exposed to the
hard or the person that aims at minimization of
damages
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Arguments
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Two basic arguments of RA/RM
Time
– reference period
Tref
Space
– reference space
Ωref
– position of Tref –
start moment tref
– position of Ωref –
location point ωref
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Time
For the time being, Time is one-dimensional!
● length of the reference period – Tref
– travel time from A to B ...
– sum of repair periods ...
– sum of traffic accident exclusions ...
– guarantee period for toll gates ...
● position of the reference period – tref
– departure from A ...
– construction contract start ...
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Space
(= sample space of the probability theory)
1D – route A-B
2D – land along the route A-B
3D – atmosphere and subsoil adjacent to
the route A-B
network – 1D, 2D, 3D
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Hyperdependences…
All space and time parameters are spaceand-time-dependent, i.e.:
• Tref is a function of tref, Ωref, etc.
• Ωref is a function of Tref, tref, ωref , etc.
E.g., the flight time from Prague to New
York depends on which route is taken,
when the departure is scheduled, etc.
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Risk
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Risk definitions
Risk is:
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
hazard, danger, peril, etc….
uncertainty...
source of hazards…
material property…
person in general…
person insured, material property insured …
probability…
possibility…
 Likely value of psychical, physical, or economic loss
expressed in monetary or other terms/units
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De Moivre's definition of risk
(1711)
Rs(T, Ω) = Pr(T, Ω) x Dm(T, Ω)
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Risk acceptability requirement
Rsact (Tref, Ωref) ≤ Rsbar (Tref, Ωref)
 Rsact = active risk, established by risk
quantification,
 Rsbar = barrier risk, defined by a decision as
the maximum acceptable risk to the Project,
 Tref = reference period
 Ωref = reference space
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Analogies
Object/Process
Engineering structure
hazard source

load source
hazard

load
hazard scenario

stress-strain state
risk
...
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
load effects (forces,
displacements, and
deformations)
...
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Tools of RA
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Tools and Concepts of RA
Tools
Concepts
 mathematical statistics and
probability theory
 reliability theory
 logic and "horse sense"
 finite math
 tree analysis, influence
analysis
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"exact"
empiric
expert
What-If
brainstorming
…
...
Estimates, estimates,
estimates ...
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Expert Methods
• Experts
• Expert teams
• Methods:
– Verbal (Hazop, Hazan)
– Numerical
– Verbal-Numerical (FMEA, UMRA)
• Randomness of Expert Analyses
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Main Groups of Hazards/Risks
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industry and agriculture
transport
communications
production and transfer of energy
…
economical
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technological
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 lawyers
 courts and arbitration senates
 laws, codes and other regulatory
documents
 …

democratic development
revolutions, upstanding
terrorism, nationalism
…
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climatic
 longtime variations of climatic
conditions
 climate changes
 climatic effects upon systems,
materials, products, and on man
 …
markets
general change in values
stock and securities
collapse of banks and insurers
…
political
legal and regulatory


environmental
physiologic
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Hazard sources and segments
exposed in construction projects
Hazard sources
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Owner…
Architect and Engineer…
Contractor…
job inspectors...
labs...
material and systems
producers...
proprietors ...
tenants…
regulators…
general public...
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–
–
–
–
–
–
insurers...
banks...
environment (Nature, Man)
adjacent facilities...
utilities...
transport...
Process segment
–
–
–
–
construction phases
site fields
management components
networks
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Assignment
GIVEN:
• Construction project: A heritage building in downtown
Prague, is to be renovated.
• The construction period assumed is 12 months, starting
JAN 2.
• Size of the Project is about 150 m CZK.
• List hazards that might be met with in the order of their
severity, Sv.
• Specify possible hazard scenarios of the most severe hazard
identified. List these scenarios in the order of their likelihood,
Lk.
• Aim of the task is to give guidance to the Owner on what kind
of Risk Management should be applied in The Project
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Suggested reading
• PM BOK® Guide (A Guide to the Project
Management Body of Knowledge), PMI, 2000
• Williams C.A. et al.: Risk Management and
Insurance. 7th Edition. McGraw-Hill, 1995
• Savage S.L.: The Flaw of Averages. Wiley,
2009
• Hubbard D.V.: The Failure of Risk
Management. Wiley, 2009
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See you next week…!
[email protected]
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