Transcript Lecture Notes-1

ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE FELL 6 POINTS IN AVERAGE TODAY
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ROSE BY 0,5 PERCENT LAST MONTH
THE LATEST SURVEY INDICATES THAT THE PRESIDENT`S APPROVAL RATING
NOW STANDS AT 60 PERCENT
THE PRICE OF KOC HOLDING STOCK WILL BE HIGHER IN SIX MONTH
THAN IT IS NOW
THE PRICE OF KOC HOLDING STOCK IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER IN SIX MONTH
THAN IT IS NOW
STATISTICAL THINKING
We may select some of professional groups why they need to have statistical thinking
- Accountants may need to select samples for auditing purposes
- Managers want
to know if customers are satisfied with their
company`s products or services
- Financial investors use statistics to understand the market`s
fluctuations and to choose between various portfolio
investments.
THE STAGES FOR STATISTICAL THINKING ARE:
1- DEFINE THE PROBLEM
2- DETERMINE WHAT DATA IS NEEDED
3- SELECT A SAMPLE
4- COLLECT DATA
5- SUMMARIZE AND ANALYZE DATA
6- MAKE INFERENCES AND DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION
The Journey to Making Decisions
Begin Here:
Identify the
Problem
DATA
Descriptive Statistics,
Probability, Computers
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
DECISION
MAKING
Experience, Theory,
Literature
Inferential Statistics,
Computers
DATA:
Specific observations of measured numbers.
INFORMATION:
Processed and summarized data
yielding facts and ideas.
KNOWLEDGE:
Selected and organized information that provides
understanding, recommendations, and
the basis for decisions.
Descriptive Statistics include graphical and numerical
procedures that summarize and process data and are used
to transform data into information
Inferential Statistics provide the bases for predictions, forecasts,
and estimates that are to transform information to knowledge
Comparison of the Growth Rates (1992-2005) %
USA
UK
ARGENTINA
TURKEY
Average
3,3
2,7
2,8
3,9
Maximum
4,5
4,4
11,9
8,9
Minimum
0,8
0,2
-10,9
-7,5
Standard
Error
1,2
1,0
6,7
5,8
Source: World Development Indicators (WDI) 2006 CD-ROM
POPULATION:
A complete set of individuals, objects or
measurements having common observable characteristics.
Examples of Populations
- Names of all registered voters in TURKEY
- Incomes of all families living in ANKARA
- Annual return of all stocks traded on the ISTANBUL STOCK
EXCHANGE
- Grade Point Averages of all the students in your University - BILKENT
SAMPLE: A subset or part of a population
Examples of Samples
- Names of 50.000 registered voters in TURKEY
- Incomes of 10.000 families living in ANKARA
- Annual return of 150 stocks traded on the ISTANBUL STOCK
EXCHANGE
- Grade Point Averages of 500 students from different departments
in your University - BILKENT
N: POPULATION
n: Sample
n:
Sample
n: Sample