Transcript Agriculture research, engagement, & tools

Agricultural Research, Tools,
and, Engagement,
Senthold Asseng, Wendy-Lin Bartels,
Dan Dourte, Clyde Fraisse, Carrie
Furman, Pam Knox, Brenda Ortiz,
George Vellidis
Exploring a) decadal variability and b) ensembles to improve
seasonal forecast skill for the southeast USA
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B
Di Tian, Senthold Asseng, Chris Martinez (UF), Vasu Misra (FSU),
Davide Cammarano (UF), Brenda Ortiz (AU)
Simulated wheat yields anomalies (-)
Year (-)
Time series plot of Wheat yields from 1903 to 2008 at North-AL
original time series after standardization
11-year moving average
5-year moving average
Melissa A. Ramírez-Rodrigues, Senthold Asseng (UF),
Lydia Stefanova (FSU), Brenda Ortiz (AU),
Clyde Fraisse, Diego Valderrama d and Salvador Gezán (UF)
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Effects on Hessian Fly Infestation in
the Southeastern USA
Prem Woli, Brenda Ortiz, David Buntin, Kathy Flanders
Objectives
The HFI prediction model was based on:
- To examine the effect of ENSO on Hessian Fly
Infestation (HFI) in the Southeastern USA.
- To explore relationship between HFI and weather
and wheat area.
- To assess the impact of HFI on wheat yield as
influenced by ENSO.
- Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (TAS,
PAS) and Oct-Feb (TOF, POF) periods PLUS
- Change in wheat area in the preceding year (ΔWA)
Results
Hessian Fly Infestation was significantly lower
in El Niño than in the other phases of ENSO
HFIPGriffin = 0.012ΔWA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF –
5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3
HFI and Yield by ENSO and Variety
Corn Aflatoxin Contamination Risk Prediction Based On a Drought Index
Damianos Damianidis, Brenda V. Ortiz, Gary L. Windham, Prem Woli
Assessing the risk for aflatoxin contamination preplanting or in-season could be used to support
changes to management practices
Objectives
Results
Aflaroxin risk for two soil types @ 1 wk
before silking
– To model the probability of aflatoxin
contamination using the Agricultural Reference
Index for Drought (ARID).
– To determine time windows during the
growing season when changes in drought
conditions will change the risk for aflatoxin.
– To determine how aflatoxin risk changes are
affected by soil type and corn hybrids
Methods
– Logistic regression was performed to test the
relationship between monthly ARID and corn
aflatoxin level exceeding 20 ppb
- The highest risk to have aflatoxin occurs
the week before silking.
- ARID can be used to predict Aflatoxin risk.
- As ARID values increase, aflatoxin risk
increases. Risk changes by soil type.
Evaluation of SimCLIM Performance in the Southeast
Yawen Bao, Gerrit Hoogenboom, George Vellidis
• Evaluated the
performance of SimCLIM
for generating climate
projections of specific
locations.
• 15 downscaled GCMs
were not significantly
different.
• SimCLIM can provide
good projections for
climate mean but not for
variability.
Maximum Temperature
Box plots of projections based on
15 GCMs and observations
Soil Field Capacity Calculation Using the van Genuchten
Model for Irrigation Scheduling and Drought Resilience
Xi Liang, Vasilis Liakos, George Vellidis
Soil water characteristics,
e.g., FC, ψm at FC, and PWP
Soil water release processes
AgroClimate Components
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Decision support tools
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Climate tools
Crop development and yield
Drought indices
Crop diseases
Footprint calculators
Forecasts and outlooks
Monthly climate reports
Information about management practices to increase resource
use efficiency and reduce risk
Information about climate-related topics
Recently released tools: Climate risk - Maps
Tri-State Working Group
Federation of Southern Cooperatives
Engagement with Stakeholder
Groups
Georgia Organics Conference
Southeast Climate Extension Project
Recipient of the 2014 USDA NIFA Partnership
Award - Multistate Efforts
Clyde Fraisse, Project Director
Southern Region Extension
Climate Academy (SRECA)
“On the CASE” Blog
Climate and
Agriculture in the
Southeast
Pam Knox
Agricultural
Climatologist
Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate
Mark Risse and Pam Knox
Course statistics:
• About 200 people have
registered for the course
• 53% have completed the
course (15 hours)
• Participants earn 10 hrs
of Continuing Ed credits
• Post-course survey shows
that the participants are
more open to discussing
climate change issues
with their clients