Transcript Atmospheric North American Lotion Consultants

Manager: Zak Demko
Index Developer: Joe Thompson
Business Researcher: Robert Richards
Meteorology Researcher: Dan Roble
Writer/Editor: Andrea Michalenicz
Incorporation of Meteorology
• Weather plays a role in everyone’s lives
Let’s Go Outdoors!
• When outside, many unaware of risks they
take while spending time in the sun
• Prolonged exposure = sunburns
– Skin cancer, wrinkles, freckled skin
• Proper use of sunscreen helps reduce risks
Truth about UV exposure
• Cloud cover affects amount of UV exposure
– Thickness determines how much UV penetrates
– Forecasting cloud cover and chance for
precipitation can help predict daily UV levels
• Skin feels cool, it will not burn quickly
– False, same amount UV reaches skin
– Higher temperature doesn’t mean more burns
Forecasting Clouds and
Precipitation
• Goal – provide forecasts and science to aid
in generating more profit
What Will Penetrate Today?
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration and Environmental
Protection Acency
– Clear skies – 100% reaches surface
– Scattered clouds – 89%
– Broken cloud conditions – 73%
– Overcast – 32% reaches surface
What About Moisturizer?
• Can forecast conditions where usage likely
– Temperature dependent
– Low humidity
Forecast Accuracy?
• Difficult to have long term accuracy
– Butterfly Effect
• Update forecasts as necessary
– Climatology often used in long range forecasts
• Intellovations study on temperature
forecast accuracy in 2005
ForecastWatch study on forecasting accuracy by Intellovations in 2005
Does decrease with time, but does not mean forecasts are bad
Improving models: Met Office
Why Use Indices?
• Our indices will help
you to know where
the greatest demand
for your product will
be.
– Increases sales and
minimizes selling your
product at cost.
– Reduces labor,
shipping, and spoilage.
Index Display
• Our indices will be displayed as a color
coded graph.
• There will be 1 value assigned to each
state, which will give us our index.
• This will allow you to know which states
will have the greatest need for your
products.
Example Display
General Index Information
• Index will be updated daily, and will
forecast for 10 days out.
• Your company has the option of a human
forecast or a computer automated
forecast.
• Your company also has the option of
keeping our index exclusive with your
company.
Our Indicies
• Sunny Skies Skindex
– Index for the use of sunscreen, includes our
patented Fundex.
• Chaf-index
– Index for the use of moisturizer, also includes
our patented Fundex.
Sunny Skies Skindex
Most Important Variable
• UV Index
0-2
Minimal
• A Sunny Skies
3-4
Low
5-6
Moderate
7-9
High
10+
Very High
Skindex value will be
designated according
to the statewide
average
Determining Statewide UV Average
• Each state will receive a daily UV Index
value
• The daily value will be determined by
three cities that are chosen in each state
based on geographic location
Example
Another Example
How to get Index Value
• The 10 daily UV Index values for each
state will then be averaged to get an
overall average UV Index for the state
• A corresponding value (from 1-100) will
then be given based on our Sunny Skies
Skindex
Outdoor Factor
• People want to play!
So what weather is
ideal for being
outdoors (and
needing sunscreen)?
Fundex
• We here at A.N.A.L have developed our
own unique Fundex, that consists of
weather variables to measure the
likelihood people will be outdoors
• These variables consist of Temperature,
Season, and Probability of Precipitation
(POPs)
Temperature
• The temperature is
•
key to determining
whether people will
be active outdoors
Our Fundex accounts
for temperatures that
are too high, too low,
or just right
What About the Season?
• The time of year
•
could play a
difference in outdoor
activity
Our Index accounts
for this in the scaling
of temperature (also
accounts for
geography)
Probability of Precipitation
• Have to be careful
•
with this variable
Can still help
determine optimal
outdoor weather
Chafin-dex
What variables are important?
• Relative humidity
•
•
(RH)
Temperature
Probability of
precipitation (POPsvery minimal)
Implications of Relative Humidity
• Relative humidity can vary significantly
from the morning to evening hours on a
daily basis
• Can also vary weekly as large storm
systems enter and exit a region.
• How do we account for this?
Relative Humidity
• Take values of relative humidity predicted
every three hours and average them over
a single day for each individual city.
• Each city is assigned a value based on
average
Relative Humidity
• A statewide average is determined by
averaging the three city values.
• The average of the ten daily averages will
be taken to determine a state average for
the ten day period
Temperature
• Will people go
outdoors?
– Pools, oceans, sun
exposure
• Will people be using
air conditioners or
furnaces?
Temperature
• Seasons/Time of year
– Lower temps = lower dew points
– Even if RH is high, dew points can dry out
thermal layer around the skin
• Prolonged exposure to the sun
Calculating a Value
• Temperature is included as most of the Fundex
• There are thresholds that take into account
•
•
warm and cold factors that lead to dry skin
For each city, the assigned threshold values will
be averaged, resulting in a statewide average.
Ten daily averages will be taken to receive a
statewide average
Probability of Precipitation (POPs)
• Used for a sense of weather is good
enough for sunbathing or swimming
• POP will be determined for each of the
three cities and assigned a value.
• The three cities values will be used to
determine a statewide value
• Statewide value averaged over ten days
and weighted accordingly
• Benefits to be gained through usage
of our indices.
• Various methods and statistics will be
discussed with the goal of helping the
company in question getting monetary
gain.
• Now let us dive right into the reasons
you will want our product!
• Total revenue brought in for the company in
PA/Nationally is $470,400/$23,520,000.
(Including Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors)
• Total revenue brought in for the company
in PA/Nationally is $480,000/$24,000,000.
(Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors)
Figure 1/Figure 2: Total revenue once spoilage and sale pricing factors are eliminated.
PA Total Revenue Before Including Spoilage/Sale
Pricing Factors and After Excluding Spoilage/Sale
Pricing Factors
500000
$470,400
$480,000
National Total Revenue Before Including
Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors and After Excluding
Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors
25000000
450000
$24,000,000
$23,520,000
400000
20000000
350000
15000000
300000
250000
10000000
200000
150000
5000000
100000
50000
0
0
00
0
00
1
2
3
0
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
• Total revenue brought in for the company in PA/Nationally
is $516,000/$25,800,000.
(Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors And Cutting Labor
By 10%)
Figure 3: Projected revenue with 10% cut on labor in addition to excluded spoilage and sale pricing.
PA Total Revenue Before Excluding Spilage/Sale
Pricing Factors and After Excluding Spoilage/Sale
Pricing Factors and Cutting Labor By 10%
National Total Revenue Before Excluding
Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors and After Excluding
Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors and Cutting Labor
By 10%
600000
$516,000
$480,000
30000000
500000
$25,800,000
25000000
$24,000,000
400000
20000000
300000
15000000
10000000
200000
5000000
100000
0
0
00
0
00
0
• Noevir's Skin Care Philosophy:
1.
2.
Using a more natural approach in product
manufacturing can save a company up to 10% on
labor and shipping costs.
The more natural approach is also more
atmosphere-friendly with regard to Global
Warming. The meaning here is you, the company,
save money on regulatory laws.
• Neutrogena’s Environmental, Health, and Safety (EHS) standards:
1.
2.
3.
Methods allow any business to achieve efficiency and more
profit from manufactured products.
Safer work conditions and minimizing environmental impact
increases social responsibility. The improvements relate a
more suitable fit to our index’s many variables.
All of this in the hope of creating a more productive working
environment on all ends to meet the demands and come out
on top. Our primary goal is to make you go over the top and
with our index you will!
• Pangea Organics/L’Oreal’s Cost Effective Approaches:
1.
2.
L’Oreal’s method involves researching for the best
and most cost effective products yearly. L’Oreal
does this by being in the top 100 in the country for
research by companies, and advertising products
using a seasonal approach to attract customers.
Pangea Organics is known for the volume of product
manufacturing they do. Pangea Organics
determines what product is selling best then
implements the product into more cost effective
advertising and development campaigns to better
there profit.
• Here are a few major positions in a company that can benefit from
our index:
1. Sales Engineers: Sells business goods or services, the selling of
which requires a technical background.
2. Sales Managers: Direct the distribution of a product or service to
the customer by establishing sales territories, quotas, and
goals.
3. Sales and Related Workers: Labor needed to produce the product
at hand with an efficient and proper understanding of
environmental and advertising criteria.
• Overall, the business strategies and methods presented
•
•
before you today show the effect that our index will have
on your business.
Correct strategies lead to profit increase through a
decrease in spoilage, sale pricing, and cutting labor
efficiently.
The information presented to you here today will push
any company to the top by implementing these cost
effective strategies with the use of our index.
Contract Information
• Payment to A.N.A.L.
Consultants based on
how much money
your company saves
per month.
– Choices within
payment, depending
on variables such as
exclusiveness and
forecasting skill
Payment Options
• For an automated forecast that is not
exclusive to your company, 5% of your
total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L.
Consultants.
• For an automated forecast that is
exclusive to you’re your company, 10% of
your total saved income will be paid to
A.N.A.L. Consultants.
Payment Options Con’t
• For a human forecast that is not exclusive
to your company, 15% of your total saved
income will be paid to A.N.A.L.
Consultants.
• For a human forecast that is exclusive to
your company, 20% of your total saved
income will be paid to A.N.A.L.
Consultants.
Contract Duration
• Contract will be for a
•
duration of 3 years.
There is a mutual
extension option for
up to 2 years, which
will have to be
decided upon before
the original contract
expires.