Transcript Risk Communication - Corps Risk Analysis Gateway

Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Institute for Water Resources
2010
Risk Communication
Charles Yoe, PhD
[email protected]
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
National Center for Food Protection & Defense
Risk Communicator
Training
Defense
,
Response & Recovery
We would like to acknowledge the
NCFPD and Peter Sandman for the
bulk of the material in this
presentation
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk Communication Team
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
An Introduction to Risk Communication
1. Defining Risk Communication: What It Is &
What It Isn’t
2. Risk Perception: Facts & Feelings
3. Explaining Quantitative Data to the General
Public
4. Means of Communicating
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
DEFINING RISK COMMUNICATION:
WHAT IT IS & WHAT IT ISN’T
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk Communication Defined
An open, two-way exchange of
information and opinion about risk
leading to better understanding and
better risk management decisions.
Source: USDA, 1992
6
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk Communication Goals
 Tailor communication so it takes into account the
emotional response to an event.
 Empowers stakeholders and public to make
informed decisions.
 Prevent negative behavior and/or encourage
constructive responses to crisis or danger.
7
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
"PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY, ONE OR TWO
STORY HOMES WILL FACE
CERTAIN DEATH. ."
National Weather Service
Hurricane Ike Warning for
Galveston
September, 2008
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Communication Models
Basic Communication Model
• Uni-directional or we tell “them” approach
• Who says - what - when - to whom through what channel - with what effect
Risk Communication Model
• Multi-directional
• Actively involves the audience as an
information source
9
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk Communication Elements
Multi-directional & actively involves the
audience as an information source
• Audience
assessment
• Audience
involvement
• Message
•
•
•
•
•
Logistics
Metamessaging
Listening
Self-assessment
Evaluation
10
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk Communication Outcomes
•
•
•
•
•
Decrease illness, injury & deaths
Reduce property and economic losses
Build support for response plan
Assist in executing response plan
Prevent misallocation & wasting of
resources
• Keep decision-makers well informed
• Counter or correct rumors
• Foster informed decision-making
concerning risk
11
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk Communication is
Trans-Disciplinary
• Environmental
Sciences
• Social
Psychology
• Philosophy
• Political Science
•
•
•
•
•
Communication
Engineering
Economics
Public Health
Natural Sciences
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk & Crisis Communication
Preparedness &
Recovery
Crisis Response
– Planned, tested,
strategic
– Pre-event activities
– Multi-directional
– Proactive
– Certain
–
–
–
–
–
Spontaneous
Post-event
Uni-directional
Reactive
Equivocal
13
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Applying the concepts
Unpacking
the
Message
14
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
What Risk Communication is Not
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Spin
Public relations
Damage control
Crisis management
How to write a press release
How to give a media interview
Always intended to make people “feel
better” or reduce their fear
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Is This Risk Communication?
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
What Risk Communication IS
• Considers human perceptions of risk
• Multi-directional communication among
communicators, publics and stakeholders
• Activities before, during and after an event
• An integral part of an emergency response
plan
• Empowers people to make their own
informed decisions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
RISK PERCEPTIONS FACTS
AND FEELINGS
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Risk Analysis Paradigm
• Everything we do involves risk
• Zero risk is unachievable
• Options exist for managing every risk
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Interpreting Risk
• Communicating about risk
is difficult because of the
way people interpret risk
• Involves competing
perspectives: objective vs
subjective
20
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
What Shapes Perceptions of Risk?
•
•
•
•
Hazard – something that can go wrong
Probability – likelihood of it happening
Consequences – implications of hazard
Value – subjective evaluation of the relative
importance of what might be lost
21
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Scientist - Consumer Disconnect
SCIENTIST
EXPERT
CONSUMER
PUBLIC
knows
thinks
feels
believes
Fact-based:
hazard, probability
Value-based:
consequences, value
22
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Peter Sandman
“The risks that upset people
are completely different
than the risks that kill
people.”
23
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Perceptions of Risk
Risk = Hazard + Outrage
SOURCE: Peter Sandman
24
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Outrage Factors Affecting
Acceptability
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Catastrophic potential
Familiarity
Understanding
Controllability
Voluntary exposure
Effects on children
Manifestation of
effects
• Victim identity
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Dread
Trust in institutions
Media attention
Accident history
Equity
Benefits
Reversibility
Origin
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
A variety of risk comm approaches
High
Outrage
(fear, anger)
Outrage
Management
Crisis /
Emergency
Communication
Public
Relations
Precaution
Advocacy
Low
High
Hazard (danger)
26
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Goal: Reduce outrage so people don’t
take unnecessary precautions
High
Outrage
(fear,anger)
Outrage
Management
Crisis /
Emergency
Communication
Public
Relations
Precaution
Advocacy
Low
Hazard (danger)
High
27
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Goal: Increase concern for a real hazard
to motivate preventive action
High
Outrage
Management
Outrage
(fear,anger)
Crisis /
Emergency
Communication
Public
Relations
Precaution
Advocacy
Low
High
Hazard (danger)
28
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Goal: Acknowledge hazard, validate concern, give
people ways to act
High
Outrage
Management
Outrage
(fear,anger)
Crisis /
Emergency
Communication
Public
Relations
Precaution
Advocacy
Low
High
Hazard (danger)
29
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
How do we explain our work to others?
EXPLAINING QUANTITATIVE
DATA TO THE GENERAL
PUBLIC
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Three Things to Remember
• Motivation
• Simplification
• Orientation
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Motivation
• When people are
• Motivation
outraged numbers
– Reduce outrage
don’t help or hurt
– Make people want
to hear the
• How you explain
numbers
data is irrelevant
• Share power-give
people a decision to
• Outraged people
make based on the
do not want to hear
data
or believe the data
• Find out what
people are
interested in and
want to know
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Simplification
• Simplify language
• Simplify graphics
• Simplify content
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Simplify Language
• If the word is there to
impress—cut it
• If the word needs defining,
define it, then cut it out
• If you have to teach the
jargon introduce the
concept before the word
• When tension is high use
less jargon
• Ask your audience to stop
you if you use jargon they
do not understand
• Keep your sentence
structure simple
• Warn your audience about
difficult material
• Avoid words that have
technical meanings that
differ from their common
meanings
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Simplify Graphics
• Limit yourself to one
point per graphic
• Put the conclusion
right on the slide
• Use animation to
simplify complex
information
• Focus on bar graphs
and pie charts when
you can
• Stand in front of the
graphic rather than
behind it so you can
look at it with your
audience
• Use color to convey
meaning but
remember some
people are color
blind
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Simplify Content
• Stick to your main
points
• Provide three different
levels of complexity,
organized like an onion
–exec. sum., report,
appendices
• Include only details that
are needed to explain
your main points or to
avoid losing credibility
later
• Don’t skimp on nontechnical details like
history, politics or
context, do not leave
out information the
audience already knows
• Tell stories or at least
use concrete language
• Personalize-be a person
• Check nonverbal cues
for understanding
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Orientation
• Tell people where you are and where you
are going
• Use risk comparisons carefully
• Don’t tell more than you know
– Explain uncertainty
– The right attitude
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Tell People Where You Are Going
• Remind people of the
structure
• Use high level
organizers
• Use inductive rather
than deductive
reasoning
• Distinguish major from
minor points
• Test your technical
explanations if you can
• Acknowledge
preconceptions,
especially if you are going
to conflict with them
• Use “confidence limits”
not just in your statistics
but in your language
• Use more reasoning and
less evidence (words not
numbers)
• Use non-technical aids
like examples, anecdotes,
quotations and
comparisons
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Use Risk Comparisons Carefully
• They do not work with outraged people
• Bound all comparisons
– This is riskier than X less risky than Y
• Never use low outrage high hazard risks
to compare to high outrage low hazard
risks
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Explaining Uncertainty
• Don’t wait to be
confronted
acknowledge
uncertainty up front
• Put bounds on the
uncertainty
• Clarify that you’re
more certain about
some things than
others
• Explain what you
have done or are
doing to reduce
the uncertainty
• If the remaining
uncertainty is very
small or very
difficult to reduce
further, say so
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Explaining Uncertainty
• Explain
conservativeness
• Report everybody’s
estimates
• Don’t hide behind
uncertainty
• Don’t perpetuate
uncertainty
• Never say there is
no evidence of X
when you have not
done the study that
tests the possibility
• Stress that finding
out for sure may be
less important than
taking appropriate
precautions now
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Explaining Uncertainty
• Acknowledge that people disagree about
what to do in the face of uncertainty
• Get people involved in reducing
uncertainty themselves
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Right Attitude
• Don’t give too much guidance on what to
think or feel
• Don’t get too technical or distant
• Leave the audience free to understand the
data and draw the conclusions they want
to draw rather than the conclusion you
want them to draw.
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
For Effective
for Effective
Risk Communication
Message Development
• Risk & crisis communication is an
ongoing process
• Communicate all of the risk
–
–
–
–
Existing risk
Residual risk
Transformed risk
Transferred risk
44
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
MEANS OF COMMUNICATING
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Flood Risk Management
10-yr Floodplain Occupant
Time in
floodplain
10 years
25 years
30 years
75 years
100 years
Probability of 1 or
more floods
65.132%
92.821%
95.761%
99.963%
99.997%
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Participation Continuum
Inform the
public
Listen to
the public
Engage in
problem solving
Develop
agreements
Know what you want to do!
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Some “To” Techniques
• Briefings
• Exhibits and
displays
• Feature stories
• Repositories
• Mailings
• Media interviews
• Media kits
• Talk shows
• News conferences
• Newsletters
• News releases
• Newspaper inserts
and
advertisements
• Panels
• Presentations
• PSA’s
• Symposia
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Some “From” Techniques
• Advisory group or
task force
• Charette
• Coffee Klatch
• Computer
simulation
• Consensus building
• Field trip
• Focus groups
• Hotlines
• Interviews
• Large group/small
group meetings
• Shared Vision
Planning
• MCDA
“ Building Strong “
http://www.svp.iwr.usace.army.mil/
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Internet
• To
• From
– Information repository
• Data, models, reports
– Publish information
about events
– Hotline
– Up-to-minute
information
– Chatroom, discussion
boards
– Multi-media
– Interactive
– Downloads
–
–
–
–
–
–
“ Building Strong “
Web conferencing
Wiki spaces
Virtual communication
Interactive websites
Listserv
Shared spaces
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Learn Online
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Chat Rooms
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Baltimore
Croatia
Cameroon
“ Building Strong “
Rome
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
A Wiki World
Anyone can contribute
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Young people grow up working this way.
You may read the newspaper, watch TV and listen to radio
but they blog, email, IM, text message, send photos, Podcast,
use the Internet, learn online, file share, work collaboratively.
This is not the future it is the present.
Web 2 is interactive, it is a global shared workspace.
Why not CorpsSolvers?
Put a problem “out there” and ask people to solve it. Ask for data, ideas,
Offer prize money for a solution you use. Seek feedback in a running
discussion board or chatroom.
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
We wrote an article collaboratively in the wiki
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
It took 52 tries over six months.
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
It was published
here this spring
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
The Way People Work Is Changing
•
•
•
•
Open-all are welcomed
Peered-no one is in charge
Shared-communal ownership
Global-worldwide
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Open and Shared
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Experiment, Innovate, Collaborate
• Spread your wings and fly
• Experiment with new technologies
• Vary your approach
“ Building Strong “
Delivering Integrated, Sustainable,
Water Resources Solutions
Questions?
“ Building Strong “