Transcript 6 CBNormTheory.

CCP Graduate Seminar Series
Convergence and Bounded
Normative Influence Theory
A service of the
Communication Science & Research
Resource Group
Convergence
and Bounded Normative
Influence Theory
D. Lawrence Kincaid
Center for Communication Programs
Bloomberg School of Public Health
The Johns Hopkins University
Baltimore, Maryland 21202 USA
email: [email protected]
April 16, 2004
Bateson’s metalogue on knowledge
Father: I once knew a little boy in England who asked his
father, "Do fathers always know more than sons?" and the
father said "Yes." The next question was, "Daddy, who
invented the steam engine?" and the father said, "James
Watt." And then the son came back and with. . .
”but why didn't James Watt's father invent it?"
Daughter: It was because somebody else had to think of
something else before anybody could make a steam
engine. . . it means that knowledge is all sort of knitted
together, or woven, like cloth, and each piece of knowledge
is only meaningful or useful because of the other pieces."
Gregory Bateson (Steps to an Ecology of Mind, 1972).
Problem: INNOVATION
There is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of
success, nor more dangerous to manage than the
creation of a new order of things... Whenever his
enemies have the ability to attack the innovator they
do so with the passion of partisans, while the others
defend him sluggishly, so that the innovator and his
party alike are vulnerable.
Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince
(in Rogers, 1995, p. 1)
General
Communication
Theory
What is a theory?
• Theory is an explanation of how something
happens, based on observation and inference.
• Theory is a coherent set of hypothetical,
conceptual, and pragmatic principles that function
as a frame of reference for some field of inquiry.
A principle is a propositional statement about some
aspect of reality that provides a basis for reasoning
or a guide for action. A proposition is a
presupposition about reality, not a fact.
What is a theory?
• A theory is a collection of theorems. A theorem is
a proposition which is a strict logical consequence
of certain definitions and other propositions.
Two sources of validity:
• The logical validity of any theorem is ultimately
derived from assertions which are not proved but
simply assumed and terms which are not defined
but simply listed.
• In science, some of the terms must be related
extensionally to referents and at least some of the
assertions must be empirically verifiable.
What is Communication?
Communication is [feedback] process in which
two or more participants share information and
converge towards mutual understanding and
agreement, and take collective action.
A process is a change in state over time.
To form means to give something a particular
shape, to shape it into a certain state.
What is Communication?
Information is a difference that makes a
difference: a pattern of matter/energy which
affects uncertainty in a situation where a choice
exists among a set of alternatives.
Feedback, if observed over time and effective,
is a series of diminishing mistakes--a dwindling
series of under-and-over corrections converging
on a goal. If ineffective, the mistakes may
become greater, widening the range of incorrect responses ending in a breakdown.
What is Meaning?
Thought
Symbol
Referent
Ogden and Richard’s Triangle of Reference (1923)
Interpersonal Triangles of Meaning
A
Thought
Variety of
Meaning
Shared
within
Referent
Referent
Referent
Referent
Referent
Referent
Referent
Symbol
The context
of other
symbols
Within a
social context
Thought
B
Variety of meaning establishes a situation
in which a choice exists among a set of
alternatives: UNCERTAINTY
Which is implied by our definition of information:
Information is a difference that makes a
difference: a pattern of matter/energy which
affects uncertainty in a situation where a choice
exists among a set of alternatives.
Convergence and divergence as the increase
and decrease in shared meaning and perspective
A
B
Convergence
Divergence
A
Mutual
Understanding
B
What is Communication?
Convergence is the tendency of two or more
objects (individuals/groups) to move towards
one point, or for one object to to move towards
another. In communication, that common point
or goal is mutual understanding, agreement,
and collective action. Divergence is a tendency
to move away or further apart.
Understanding is an inherent and involuntary
aspect of information processing.
SMCR Model of Communication
(Berlo, 1960)
Source
message
Receiver
Channel
feedback
Where feedback is simply “knowledge of results”
Switchback Model of Communication
(Schramm, 1973)
A
encoding
Message1
decoding
encoding
Message2
A
decoding
encoding
Message3
And so forth. . .
B
A Convergence Model of Communication
(Kincaid, 1975)
Basic Components of the Convergence Model of Communication
PSYCHOLOGICAL
REALITY
A
Interpreting
PHYSICAL
REALITY
INFORMATION
Perceiving
PSYCHOLOGICAL
REALITY
B
Perceiving
Interpreting
Action
Action
Collective
Action
Understanding
Believing
Believing
Mutual
Agreement
MUTUAL
UNDERSTANDING
SOCIAL REALITY
A&B
Source: Kincaid (1979); Rogers and Kincaid (1981).
Understanding
Revised Model of the Convergence Model
with Emotional Response
PSYCHOLOGICAL
REALITY
A
Interpreting
PHYSICAL
REALITY
INFORMATION
Perceiving
PSYCHOLOGICAL
REALITY
B
Perceiving
Feelings
Feelings
Action
Action
Emotional
Response
Understanding
Interpreting
Emotional
Response
Collective
Action
Believing
Believing
Mutual
Agreement
MUTUAL
UNDERSTANDING
SOCIAL REALITY
and RELATIONSHIP
A&B
Understanding
Fundamental theorem of communication
In an informationally closed social system in which
communication among members is unrestricted,
the system as a whole will tend to converge over
time towards a collective pattern of thought and
behavior of greater uniformity (Kincaid, 1987).
Divergence would result if the system were open
to new information or to new participants and
information is restricted. Restriction = bounded.
Convergence within the system creates
divergence simultaneously with respect to other
social systems outside of its boundaries.
Bounded
Normative
Influence
The Paradox of Innovation
• Every innovation begins as a deviation from
existing social norms.
• Given the strong effect of social norms and
pressure, how can any innovation ever diffuse
to the point where it becomes a new social
norm?
• The seeming paradox of how a minority can
influence the majority has not been explained
well by prevailing social science theory.
Diagram of a social network based on
interpersonal communication links
The next slide shows a diagram of a communication
network of women in a Bangladesh Village.
• Each woman (node) is represented by a circle and a
unique identification number. Communication links
with other women are indicated by a straight lines.
• The diameter of the circle of each woman is
proportional to the number of direct links she has
with other women in the network
• The distance separating the nodes and their relative
positions are calculated and graphed according to
the number of links (steps) separating each woman
from every other woman in the network.
Network diagram showing the position, communication
links, and jiggasha group membership among the
women of a Bangladesh village
Jiggasha group members
Non-adopters
4
-3.5
-8
6
Graph of the distance among women in the communication network
of a Bangladesh village with uniform contraceptive status
Deriving a theory of normative influence
from fundamental communication theory
Examine the graph of women distributed spatially in a
communication network in the next slide.
1. About 30% have adopted contraception. If only
interpersonal communication occurs among women near
one another with direct links, do you think that over time
adoption would increase, decrease, or remain the same
based upon this initial state and communication theory?
2. What variables or factors would influence the
outcome? Why? Would adoption decline and disappear
eventually? If you think it would increase, to what
percent? Which women? (i.e., at what positions).
Non-adopters
Initial adopters
4
-3.5
-8
6
Figure 1. Graph of the distance among women in the communication
network of a Bangladesh village with initial contraceptive status
indicated
Computer Simulation
Based on Social Impact Theory
Social impact theory (Latane, 1996; Latane,
1981; Latane & Wolf, 1981) formalized this
convergence process by means of an explicit
mathematical model which takes into account
the location and distance between members of
the social system.
Social influence is "any influence on individual
feelings, thoughts, or behavior that is exerted by
the real, implied, or imagined presence or
actions of others"
Persuasive Impact
îp = No1/2((pici/di2)/No)
(1)
where the mean persuasive impact, îp, on each
individual in the network is directly proportional
to the persuasiveness, pi, of source i multiplied
by the frequency of communication of that
source, ci , and inversely proportional to the
square of the distance between source i and the
recipient, di2, divided by the number of opposing
sources, No.
Social Support
Persuasive impact is the sum of influence
brought to bear by those who favor one point
of view, while social support is influence from
those who support the other point of view,
defined similarly as:
îs = Ns1/2((pici/di2)/Ns)
2)
Stability or Change
At any given point in time is the net difference
between the average persuasive impact and
the average social support impact on each
individual in the system. Specifically, the
change of each recipient is the ratio of
persuasive impact to the degree of social
support:
if:
îp / îs > 1
then change will occur for that individual.
(3)
Outcome
Any individual whose average persuasive
impact is greater than his/her average
supportive impact (îp / îs > 1) will change to the
other side.
After the new state of each individual in the
network is calculated, the overall pattern of
opposition and support in the network is
changed. The new configuration is then used
in the next iteration (time interval) of the
simulation. This process repeats until the
system converges to a steady state in which
no further change occurs.
Non-adopters
Initial adopters
4
-3.5
-8
6
Figure 1. Graph of the distance among women in the communication
network of a Bangladesh village with initial contraceptive status
indicated
Non-adopters
Adopters after 2 iterations
4
Bounded
normative
Influence
With recruitment
at the edges
-3.5
-8
6
Figure 2. Distance and contraceptive status among women in the
communication network after two iterations of the simulation indicating
the emergence of a locally bounded, self-sustaining subgroup
Non-adopters
Adopters after 19 iterations
4
With oscillation at
the boundaries
Subgroup A
Subgroup B
-3.5
-8
6
Figure 3. Distance and contraceptive status among women in the
communication network after nineteen iterations of the simulation indicating
the final division of the village into two subgroups with behavioral oscillation
at the boundary
Total Village
Subgroup B
Subgroup A
1
Proportion of adopters
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
No. of iterations over time
Figure 4. Change in contraceptive status over twenty iterations of
the simulation by the total village and within the boundaries of its
two subgroups
Figure 5. Network diagram showing the MDS distance, communication
links, and jiggasha group membership among the women of a Bangladesh
village
Jiggasha group members
Random
Central
Peripheral
Constant Increase
Final Percentage of Adopters
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
20
60
40
(1000 simulations at 2.5% intervals)
80
100
Initial Percentage of Adopters
Figure 6. Graph of the final percentage by the initial percentage
of contraceptive adoption with three different starting distributions
in the communication network of the Bangladesh village (Fig. 5)
Random: High Communication
Constant Increase
Random: High Persuasiveness
Final Percentage of Adopters
100
80
Jiggasha
members
60
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
(1000 simulations at 2.5% intervals)
80
100
Initial Percentage of Adopters
Figure 7. Graph of the final percentage by the initial percentage
of contraceptive adoption in the communication network of the
village by three different communication strategies
The Principle of
Bounded Normative Influence
Bounded normative influence is the
tendency of social norms to influence
behavior within relatively bounded, local
subgroups of a social system rather than
the system as a whole.
Source: Kincaid, 2004
• As long as a minority maintains its majority
status within its own, locally bounded
portion of the network, then it can survive,
recruit converts in the near surround, and
establish its behavior as the norm for the
network as whole.
• The process is accelerated when the
minority subgroup is centrally located in
the network and communicates more
frequently and persuasively than the
majority.
Convergence and Bounded Normative
Influence Theory
References
Berlo, D. K. (1960). The Process of Communication. New York: Holt,
Rinehart, and Winston.
Kincaid, D. L., & Schramm, W. (1975). Fundamental Human
Communication. Professional Development Module. Honolulu, Hawaii:
East-West Center Communication Institute.
Kincaid, D. L. (2004). From innovation to social norm: Bounded normative
influence. Journal of Health Communication, 9: 37–57, 2004.
Kincaid, D. L. (2002) Drama, emotion, and cultural convergence.
Communication Theory, 12 (2): 136-152.
Kincaid, D. L. (1987). The convergence theory of communication, selforganization and cultural evolution. In D. L. Kincaid (Ed.) Communication
Theory: Eastern and Western Perspectives. New York: Academic Press.
Latane, B. (1981). The psychology of social impact. American Psychology, 36,
343-365.
Rogers, E. M., & Kincaid, D. L. (1981). Communication Networks: Toward a
New Paradigm for Research. New York: The Free Press.