Transcript A review of risk perception methodologies and empirical

A review of risk perception
methodologies and empirical
studies focused on risks from
chemicals released from
consumer products/articles
Martin Clauberg, CRisk
C
Holger Schütz, Peter M. Wiedemann
Carlos delPozo, Demosthenes Papameletiou
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Problem statement
• Applications of emerging technology will
be (and are currently) incorporated into
various consumer products / articles.
– classified as chemicals; unintended release is of interest
• Risk management requires sound risk
assessments and interdependant upon
effective risk communication strategies.
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Problem statement (2)
• Risk communication failures can be costly
– Recalls, loss of trust, societal fragmentation (eg GMO)
• With so much at stake, how can risk
management be successful without a proven
(evidence-based) risk communication approach?
• Tools and support are needed for risk
managers and decision-makers to develop
effective risk communication strategies.
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EC Project Overview / Tasks
•
European Commission’s Health & Consumer Protection
DG and Joint Research Center (JRC-IHCP) are
addressing this challenge  EIS-ChemRisks
1. Literature search

Compile an extensive literature database on risk perception in
risk communication studies, with a strong focus on applied or
applicable methodological aspects.
2. Questionnaire survey

Create and conduct a questionnaire survey to obtain information
which has not been published to date from key stakeholders in
academia, public authorities, non-governmental organizations,
and industry.
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EC Project Overview / Tasks (2)
3. Risk perception reference database

Merging the results of tasks #1 and #2 together into a
web-accessible knowledge-based database, whereby
the information is categorized and indexed.
4. State of the art report

To draft and finalize a “state of the art” report that will
review the information and knowledge obtained from
the previous tasks.
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Task 1. Literature Search
• So far no bibliographic database is available
that is specific to the topic of risk
perception studies applicable to risk
communication about chemicals in
consumer products / articles.
• Literature search in ISI Web of Science®,
Ingenta Connect®, Medline, and other
bibliographic resources available on the
Internet.
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Task 1. Literature Search (2)
• The literature was searched for and grouped
into four thematic areas:
– general methodology to survey risk perception,
– specific risk perception surveys on chemical
risks,
– review of current use of risk perception
knowledge in risk communication and decision
making related to the safety of chemicals, and
– specification of R&D needs.
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Task 1. Literature Search for General Methodology to Survey Risk Perception
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Task 1. Literature Search for Specific Risk Perception Surveys on Chemical Risks
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Task 1. Literature Search - Results
• In toto, the searches yielded 699 candidate references,
– of which 583 were identified in the search for the general
methodology of risk perception studies
– and 114 candidate references were found pertaining to risk
perception of chemicals, whereby some references have
overlapping classifications.
• Of the candidate references, 440 were deemed not
relevant to our specific topic.
– This quite large number of false positive results indicates that
despite the development of advanced search strings, expert
input in the selection process is and will continue to be
necessary.
• The remaining literature was supplemented with
additional 129 references from our databases.
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Task 1. Literature Search - Conclusions
• Large number of references on risk perception studies per se,
but only few (and outdated) studies exist on chemicals in
consumer products
• No specific bibliographic database on the subject exists to date,
existing databases – be they academic or commercial – do not
provide satisfactory coverage, dedicated risk perception
subject categories, nor acceptable search results.
• Automated updates utilizing the search strings developed in
this project should be able to capture new studies, but will also
result in proportionally high rates of false positive results
which will require the input and review of a content expert.
Categorization and keyword assignment must also be
performed by a subject matter expert.
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Task 2. Questionnaire Survey - Objectives
• To find “gray literature”
• To obtain information on the exemplary opinions
regarding the current state-of-the-art and practice of
risk perception studies in risk communication of
selected representatives from:
– the regulatory community,
– industry,
– non-governmental organizations,
– and consultants
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Task 2. Questionnaire Survey - Results
• Emailed to over 300 organizations across Europe,
who were specifically selected for their known
involvement with risk perception or risk
communication issues of consumer products.
• Very low questionnaire return rate of less than 20
questionnaires – although most participants that
were contacted (email and telephone interviews)
were clearly enthusiastic about the topic of the
study.
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Task 2. Questionnaire Survey – Results (2)
• On the basis of the small sample of returned
surveys, the results suggest that:
– very few gray literature items appear to exist,
– while most organizations are aware of the potential
significance of risk perception studies for risk communication,
it is treated as an “implicit knowledge” issue,
– only few organizations have dedicated staff with sufficient
expertise to address risk perception study results and that the
majority of responding organizations do not feel that adequate
internal or external motivation, e.g. regulatory requirement, is
present.
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Task 2. Questionnaire Survey – Conclusions
• Future efforts to obtain input from organizations
that apply risk perception studies should occur
with the expressed support of national or EU
authorities.
• May need to expand the schedule and funding to
allow for individual face-to-face interviews at the
different organizations.
• This could also serve as an initial starting point for
the development of a European network of expert
stakeholders on evidence-based risk perception
studies in risk communication of chemicals in
consumer products/ articles.
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Task 2. Questionnaire Survey – Conclusions (2)
• Such a network development should go hand-inhand with the development and expansion of
competency centers at national and European
authorities.
• These competency centers could also serve as
focal points for further methods evaluation &
improvements, as well as training and guideline
development, which were identified as needs by
the respondents in our survey.
• Clearly, more evidence-based risk perception
studies are sorely needed in the area of chemicals
in consumer products.
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Task 3. Risk Perception Reference Database
Classification
• Type of source document
• e.g. journal article, book
• Underlying methodology
• e.g. psychometric paradigm, intuitive toxicology
• Study type
• e.g. experimental, qualitative
• Target groups
• e.g. consumers / lay persons, gender differences
• Chemical issue
• Endpoints
• perceptions, attitudes & beliefs, behavior
• Special focus
• e.g. social amplification, cross-cultural
• R&D research needs
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Task 3. Risk Perception Reference Database
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Task 4. State-of-the-Art Report
• Introduction of the risk perception research field
• Approaches
–
–
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Psychometric paradigm
Cultural theory of risk
Stigma approach
Intuitive toxicology approach
Mental model approach
• Current perspectives on risk perception
– Role of affect in risk perception and
– Influence of personality traits
• Risk perception of consumer products containing
chemicals
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Task 4. State-of-the-Art Report (2)
• Discussion of approaches
– methodological requirements
– usefulness for understanding risk perception
– and for informing strategies for risk communication
• Our evaluations were performed with the specific focus
of chemicals released from consumer products/articles
in mind. Within this constraint (could be considered
subjective) we evaluated the methods with objective
characteristics.
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Psychometric Paradigm
• Methodology
– Survey, multiple hazards, multiple risk characteristics
• Usefulness for understanding risk perception
– Yields useful information on how different hazards are
perceived (on average) in regard to a specific set of risk
characteristics
• Usefulness for informing strategies for risk
communication
– “Risk” may mean to lay people more than probability
and severity
– Provides little information on how to design risk
communication strategies
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Cultural Theory of Risk
• Methodology
– Survey, little empirical support for (theoretical)
values orientation groups
• Usefulness for understanding risk perception
– Not useful
• Usefulness for informing strategies for risk
communication
– Not useful
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Stigma Approach
• Methodology
– Survey, free associations: images
• Usefulness for understanding risk perception
– Not applicable to all risks, but emphasizes the
role of affect in risk perception
• Usefulness for informing strategies for risk
communication
– Calls attention to the limits of providing factual
information
– Emphasizes the role of contextual information
(framing)
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Intuitive Toxicology
• Methodology
– Surveys, scientific toxicology  intuitive understanding
• Usefulness for understanding risk perception
– Provides information where and how much lay perceptions
diverge from scientific toxicology
– Thus, intuitive toxicology can provide a lot of insight about why
laypersons think that certain substances are hazardous, and how
they belief toxicological effects ‘operate’.
• Usefulness for informing strategies for risk
communication
– Provides an instructive starting point for designing risk
communication strategies, as it points to the critical issues that
have to be addressed in the risk information.
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Mental Model Approach
• Methodology
– Focuses on the causal relationships between the various
elements which constitute a risk
– Expert model – lay model
• Usefulness for understanding risk perception
– Particularly helpful for understanding the reasoning of
laypersons about a risk
– Does not address the evaluative aspect of risk perception
• Usefulness for informing strategies for risk
communication
– Helps to identify the critical points where expert and lay
models about a risk diverge
– Problematic if no unequivocal expert assessment exists
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Confounding issue of uncertainty of
“expert” views
• As Rob Goble mentioned, uncertainty is an
important topic to contend with in risk
communication, especially if different experts
disagree.
• Little has been done to address this challenge in
risk communication strategies.
• New book by Wiedemann & Schuetz from IMBA
project: “The Role of Evidence in Risk
Characterization”, Wiley-VCH (www.wiley.com)
• http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/prod
uctCd-3527320482.html
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Few Studies on Risk Perception of Consumer
Products Containing Chemicals
• Only one study found focusing specifically on
chemical consumer products
• 3 studies investigating consumer products, including
some chemical items
• Chemicals are included as risk items in some of the
“general” risk perception studies
• Data outdated
• Eurobarometer surveys
– What affects health (Eurobarometer 272a, 2007)
– Likelihood of being affected by various risks
(Eurobarometer 238, 2006)
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State-of-the-Art Review – Conclusions
• With the exception of cultural theory, which possesses
only little empirical support, all approaches make useful
contributions to our understanding of risk perception.
However, the approaches differ with regard to their
specific focus:
– If the interest is in comparing different (groups of)
hazards/risks with regard to particular risk characteristics, the
psychometric paradigm offers an adequate methodology. In
particular, it allows the inclusion of risk characteristics that
are related to affective aspects of risk, which are increasingly
considered to be important in recent research. In this regard,
the stigma approach offers a useful orientation.
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State-of-the-Art Review – Conclusions (2)
– If the interest is in understanding the beliefs
underlying intuitive risk judgments, intuitive
toxicology and the mental model approach are
appropriate. They can be used to explore the lay
understanding of important toxicological concepts and
principles and to uncover the causal reasoning that
leads people to their risk judgments.
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State-of-the-Art Review – Conclusions (3)
• The available research so far indicates that risk
perception of consumer products containing chemicals is
not qualitatively different from risk perception of other
hazards.
• However, the number of empirical risk perception
studies of chemical consumer products is quite limited.
• In addition, the existing risk perception studies on that
issue are older, if not outdated, thus strengthening the
call for new research.
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State-of-the-Art Review – Conclusions (4)
• For designing risk communication strategies for
chemical consumer products the intuitive toxicology
and the mental model approaches appear most
promising, as they are concerned with knowledge
structures, which are to be addressed in risk
communication.
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Policy recommendations & call for research
• Further empirical research is needed in order to base
chemical risk communication (CRC) policies on a
reliable platform.
• Theory driven research designs should be applied in
order to get meaningful data that help to improve risk
communications.
• Social science research should be conducted in close
cooperation with toxicologists in order to avoid
misconceptions in risk perception and communication
studies.
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Policy recommendations & call for research (2)
• Based on our project an EU CRC-database should be
implemented on the Internet; maintained and
extended for quick access to reliable CRC
information.
• More effort should be put into surveying the
knowledge about and use of CRC among various
stakeholders.
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