Transcript Data Link & CNS/ATM: The Business View

Data Link & CNS/ATM:
A Business Perspective
Presented by Forrest Colliver
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
1
Problems never turn out to be
all that new…
“ There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more
doubtful of success than to initiate a new order of
things. For the reformer has enemies in all those
who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm
defenders in all those who could profit by the new
order. This lukewarmness arises from the incredulity
of mankind who do not truly believe in anything new
until they have had actual experience with it. ”
Niccolo Machiavelli c. 1513.
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
2
Aeronautical Data Link:
A Business Perspective
Challenges & Opportunities


What is the role of “communications” in the evolution of
airspace operation and efficiency ?
What happens if we do nothing to improve & evolve today’s
communication environment ?
The Data Link Business Decision-Making Process


Why invest in data link ?
Where to the opportunities lie ?
What does data link implementation imply ?

New services, procedures, systems
Why is data link deployment so slow ?
What can be done to get things moving ?
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
3
The Challenge
Communications & CNS/ATM
Navigation
Communications
ATC/AOC
Operations &
Control Centers
Surveillance
Graphic: FANS-IS
Communication is a cornerstone of Air Traffic
Management, as are Navigation & Surveillance
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
4
The Challenge
CNS enables ATM
C
N
S

Increased Use of Automation

Improved Flow Management

More Flexible Tactical Control
Graphic: FANS-IS
Improved ATM Operations
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
To move from air traffic
control toward real
airspace management,
collaborative planning
among airspace users &
managers becomes
essential, both prior to
and during the flight…
RELIABLE
COMMUNICATION
REDUCES
CONTROLLER &
PILOT WORKLOAD
5
The Challenge
ATC voice communication today…
VHF Voice
HF Voice
Air Traffic Services
Graphic: FANS-IS
VHF Transmitter
HF Transmitter
And concerning voice, little has changed since the 1940s…
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
6
The Challenge
ATM data link today…
CFMU
DCL
ATIS
FANS-1
Other
ATSOs
ACARS
Graphic: FANS-IS
ATSO
AIS/MET
National Networks
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
Today’s ATC data
communication is
“evolutionary”, not
“revolutionary”…
AFTN/CIDIN
7
The Opportunity
The ATC Communication Problem…
Today’s air/ground communication infrastructure is saturated

Reliance on voice communications impacts controller/pilot efficiency
 Communication tasks represent at least 1/3 of controller workload today
 Miscommunications complicate pilot workload and overall system efficiency

Poor efficiency leads to increasing mean flight delays
 Increasing mean flight delays leads to inability to maintain schedules
 Failure of scheduled operations means missed passenger and crew
connections, aircraft in wrong locations, increased cost of operations…

No relief expected from traditional AOC voice/data frequencies, since
they are saturated as well…
BOTTOM LINE
 Unreliable communication contributes to flight delays: via missed
clearances/acknowledgements, comprehension errors…
 Without improved communications, operating costs mount, and
increased airspace efficiency through such means as reduction of
miles-in-trail, etc., becomes nearly difficult to achieve.
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
8
The Opportunity
… and beyond ATC/AOC,
communication demands only increase
Airspace Management
ATC/ATM
AOC
APC/AAC
Aircraft Operations
Passengers / Commerce
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
Airspace &
aircraft operations
depend on reliable
ATC/ATM & AOC
communication,
but in addition,
passengers have
communication
needs as well…in
other words,
“surplus”
communication
capacity is
UNLIKELY
9
The Opportunity
What will motivate investment ?
What drives the need for improved communications ?


ATC/AOC voice/data spectrum saturation overall
Airspace operational inefficiency due to reliance on voice
communication for both routine & non-routine procedures
What happens if we do nothing ?



Growth in aircraft operating costs based on ever-increasing flight
delays, due to operational inefficiencies
Limits on expansion of services (i.e. additional flights) due to
saturation of continental airspaces (North America, Europe)
Limits on operational use of data link (AOC & ATC) due to
frequency saturation, and to unavailability of cost effective
alternatives to current VHF systems
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
10
The Opportunity
How can we meet this challenge ?
Solution to VHF spectrum congestion:



Improved VHF data links (VDL/2, VDL/3)
Alternative data links (in today’s world, SATCOM & HFDL)
Transition of routine voice procedures (ATC & AOC) to data
Solution to ATC communication inefficiencies:

Transition of routine voice procedures (ATC & AOC) to data
 Common Denominator:
Transition of routine voice procedures (ATC & AOC) to
data
A business opportunity lies in supply of technology &
services to offer new & improved data links, along with the
provision of air/ground controller/pilot data link
communications.
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
11
Business Decision-Making
But is this really an opportunity ?
Relationship of operational efficiency to communication capacity
and procedures has been well-established, during the past decade


FAA Controller/Pilot Data Link Study (1995, 1996)
Eurocontrol Controller/Pilot Data Link Studies (1998)
Data link cost/benefit analyses exist, including work in progress
within RTCA FFSC: all show “cost-avoidance” benefits of data link


North American & European C/AFT Studies (complete)
RTCA FFSC CPDLC Benefits Study (in progress)
Issues:



Standardizing cost per flight hour for cost/benefit modeling
Benefits allocation to investor/pioneers
Achieving a critical mass in level of equipage to ensure that benefits
can be delivered in designated airspaces
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
12
Business Decision-Making
Key Conclusions
1. For at least the European & North American
airspaces, implementation of controller/pilot data
link provides an essential tool for improvements in
airspace efficiency, given the attainment of a
suitable equipage level in each of those airspaces.
2. These improvements in efficiency are expected to
lead to direct reductions in delays, and will enable
operational procedures supporting a greater number
of aircraft within these airspaces.
3. However, to enable individual airline investment
business cases, benefits (i.e. reductions in delays,
increases in airspace capacity) must be allocated to
investors.
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
13
Finding Quantifiable Benefits
What services offer benefit?
Nature of data link applications define the benefit, as well
as the cost…
Focus of CNS/ATM and ATN today is Controller/Pilot Data
Link Communication (CPDLC), a voice replacement
service requiring reliable air/ground data link support
Future evolution: collaborative decision making


Controller and pilot act more as “manager” than “tactician”,
reducing workloads and improving performance
Communication capabilities allow exchanges between air &
ground computers for pilot/controller decision support
Current Applications (in-service time frame: 2002-2008)


Initialization of contact & transfer of communications
Management & control of aircraft movements
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
14
Finding Quantifiable Benefits
Specific Benefits of CPDLC
Reduced congestion on voice channels, improved allocation of
voice capacity to tactical needs
Additional means of communication between pilots and controllers,
the “second channel” for routine & strategic communications…
More dynamic and efficient air/ground information exchange
Improved distribution of workload among control team members &
Flight Deck Personnel
Reduced pilot-controller communication errors resulting from
misunderstood instructions, readback/hearback problems, and
stepped-on clearances
HOWEVER, THE REAL BENEFIT OF CPDLC IS REDUCED
CONTROLLER WORKLOAD, WHICH OFFERS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE SYSTEM CAPACITY
WHILE IMPROVING SAFETY OF OPERATIONS
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
15
Finding Quantifiable Benefits
So why are CPDLC, CNS/ATM, ATN,
VDL, etc. so hard to implement ?
First, technology is NOT the problem, since CNS/ATM and
ATN solutions have been prototyped, field-validated, and
standardized at the ICAO, RTCA, EUROCAE, IATA, etc.
levels for much of the past decade.
The real issue is the justification of costs based on
benefits, on a per-stakeholder or per-organization basis


Cost/benefit studies so far have shown various positive levels of
economic benefit for the civil aviation stakeholders as a whole,
but attempts by many (if not all) organizations to construct
“micro-scale”, or single-stakeholder, business plans for data link
have largely failed.
No stakeholder wants to invest without clear individual return,
and the situation is made worse if the investment actually
benefits a competitor, which is often the case illustrated by the
various data link cost benefit studies
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
16
Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link
The Investment Model
Data link is indeed a costly revolution…



Aircraft must be fitted with data link computers, radios, displays,
input/output devices, etc.
ATC & AOC operational centers must be fitted with data link
computers, displays, input/output devices, communication links
Data links themselves must be upgraded to provide digital data
communication capabilities end-to-end
To relate the costs of these upgrades to the benefits:



Aircraft operators must justify their investments based on an
offset cost reduction per delay-minute avoided
ATC & AOC operators must justify their investments based on
safety and efficiency enhancements
Communication service providers must justify their investments
based on revenue projections for the services offered
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
17
Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link
…and the associated deadlock
So far, this model has been sufficiently complex that only
the pioneers have been willing to move forward…
Obviously, the preceding investment model is simplified,
since many factors play into an organization’s decision to
invest in new technology
However, looking at the investment model and the
benefits model side-by-side, it is evident that the problem
must be broken down to be manageable
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
18
Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link
The technical view (1/2)
For tangible data link application benefits, the
communication network must offer:


Reliable & highly-available communication service
Predictable, error-free, in-sequence message delivery
 In this context, the ATN goes beyond current ACARS and
FANS-1/A support models for simple one-message
clearances to offer support for full airspace management,
enabling benefits such as reduced separation and/or
preferential routing
 Certification view is that in this context, a communication
system failure would be considered to be “major”
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
19
Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link
The technical view (2/2)
For benefits related to aircraft movement control




Controller & pilot workload must be reduced
Controller/pilot messaging integrity must be assured
Controller/pilot message sequencing must be assured
Network availability must be predictable
Allowable system failure probability: < 1 in 105

Based on protection against “major” failure threat
Given that both technical performance & failure probability
standards are met, aircraft movement control benefits can be
achieved through an evolution from today’s “one message”
model toward actual “air traffic management”
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
20
Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link
Data Link Certification
Data link certification requires a paradigm-shift, since
data link is inherently end-to-end


Both air & ground components contribute to RCP
Nature of contribution depends on service context
Many players are involved in process:




Airframe & avionics manufacturers
Civil aviation & aircraft operating authorities
Communication service providers
Standards bodies (ICAO, RTCA/EUROCAE, AEEC, etc.)
Most comprehensive model for ATN services:


Developed by RTCA SC-189/EUROCAE WG-5
To be taken in context of safety & hazard analyses
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
21
Implementation of CNS/ATM Data Link
So how do we manage data link
investment & implementation ?
Quantify delay-reduction benefits by region and by operator to
induce aircraft operators to invest

Where direct benefits do not exist per operator, derive/invent other
financial incentives, such as preferential routing between favored
city pairs; etc.
Quantify capacity improvements by region to induce ATC
authorities to invest
Quantify operational enhancements by region and by operator,
to induce aircraft operations centers to equip
Agree with service provider on implementation arrangements to
induce SP to upgrade.
Develop a regional implementation plan, including appropriate
planning for certification, managed by an implementation team
representing all involved stakeholders
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
22
18-19 September 2001
ATN2001 (London)
23