Transcript history of international relations, 1945-1991

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS, 1945-1991
DÉTENTE ON STANDBY
THE SECOND COLD WAR, NEW ARMS RACE, THE
REAGAN DOCTRINE AND FIRST STEPS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE COLD WAR
ANDRÁS JOÓ PhD
CORVINUS 2015
AIMS OF THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION
• REAGAN ADMINISTRATION WAS AWARE OF THE FRAGILE STATE
OF THE USSR
• HARDLINE POLICY TO PUSH ITS ENEMY TOWARD COLLAPSE?
• UNPRECEDENTED MILITARY BUILDUP
• THE INTRODUCTION OF THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE
(SDI)
• TOUGH RHETORIC
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE SECOND COLD WAR
• RONALD REAGAN DENOUNCED THE SOVIET UNION
AS AN IMMORAL “EVIL EMPIRE”
• HEIGHTENED THE COLD WAR TENSIONS
• APPROVED MASSIVE INCREASE IN MILITARY SPENDING
• ENDED ARMS CONTROL NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE
SOVIETS
• PURSUED AGGRESSIVE POLICY TO ROLL BACK SOVIET
INFLUENCE IN THE THIRD WORLD
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE SECOND COLD WAR AND REAGAN’S AIMS
• REAGAN MOVED AGAINST DÉTENTE AND BEYOND
CONTAINMENT
• THE OBJECTIVE OF ENCOURAGING LONG-TERM POLITICAL AND
MILITARY CHANGES WITHIN THE SOVIET EMPIRE
• FACILITATE A MORE SECURE AND PEACEFUL WORLD ORDER
• ADVOCATED A NEW AGGRESSIVE POLICY
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE SECOND COLD WAR AND REAGAN’S AIMS
• A CENTRAL INSTRUMENT FOR PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE
SOVIET UNION WAS REAGAN’S MASSIVE DEFENSE BUILD-UP
• RAISED DEFENSE SPENDING FROM $134 BILLION IN 1980 TO
$253 BILLION IN 1989
• RAISED AMERICAN DEFENSE SPENDING TO 7 PERCENT OF GDP
• DRAMATICAL INCREASE OF THE FEDERAL DEFICIT
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE SECOND COLD WAR
• THE “SECOND COLD WAR” PROVED SHORT-LIVED
• THE SOVIET UNION BEGAN TO PURSUE POLICIES AIMED
AT IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES
AFTER MIKHAIL GORBACHEV CAME TO POWER IN 1985
• WITH THE SOVIETS MAKING MOST OF THE CONCESSIONS,
THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION REACHED
IMPORTANT ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS IN 1987 AND
AFTER
• AT THE END OF REAGAN’S TERM COMMUNISM IN
EASTERN EUROPE COLLAPSED
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE NEW COLD WAR - A STAR WAR? - SDI
• THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION
INTENSIFIED THE MILITARY BUILD-UP
AND INCREASED MILITARY
SPENDING ENORMOUSLY
• MARCH 1983: THE SPACE
DEFENSE INITIATIVE (SDI),
KNOWN AS STAR WARS
• VISIONARY PROJECT TO CREATE AN
ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM THAT
WOULD REMOVE THE NUCLEAR
SWORD OF DAMOCLES FROM
AMERICA’S HOMELAND
• EXPERTS STILL DISAGREE ABOUT THE
LONG-TERM FEASIBILITY
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE SDI WAS INTENDED TO DEFEND
THE UNITED STATES FROM ATTACK
FROM SOVIET ICBMS BY
INTERCEPTING THE MISSILES AT
VARIOUS PHASES OF THEIR FLIGHT
SDI WOULD REQUIRE EXTREMELY
ADVANCED TECHNOLOGICAL
SYSTEMS
SYSTEM WOULD TIP THE NUCLEAR
BALANCE TOWARD THE US
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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REAGAN’S AIMS
• RE-ESTABLISH US MILITARY SUPERIORITY
• USE THE ARMS RACE TO PLACE GREAT STRAIN ON
THE SOVIET ECONOMY
• INCREASE US STRENGTH BEFORE ENGAGING IN
ARMS CONTROL NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE
SOVIET UNION
• NEGOTIATIONS ON STRATEGIC WEAPONS (START)
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE THIRD WORLD
• REAGAN FOLLOWED A CONFRONTATIONAL POLICY TOWARD THIRD
WORLD REGIMES HE DEEMED HOSTILE AND INCREASED MILITARY AND
OTHER ASSISTANCE TO PRO-US THIRD WORLD REGIMES
• EL SALVADOR
• NICARAGUA
• GRENADA
• AFGHANISTAN
• ANGOLA
• CAMBODIA
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE REAGAN DOCTRINE
• THE DOCTRINE PROPOSED U.S. ASSISTANCE FOR
ANTICOMMUNIST FORCES WHO CHALLENGED THE SOVIET
UNION OR ITS CLIENTS
• REAGAN LAUDED ’FREEDOM FIGHTERS’
• USE OF PROXIES AND SMALL PARAMILITARY UNITS
• US BACKED MUJAHIDEEN GUERRILLA FIGHTERS
• IN AFGHANISTAN THE KREMLIN EXPERIENCED A VIETNAMSTYLE QUAGMIRE OF ITS OWN
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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NICARAGUA
• IN NICARAGUA, THE WHITE HOUSE SUPPORTED THE CONTRAS,
WHO WERE FIGHTING AGAINST THE REVOLUTIONARY
SOCIALIST SANDINISTA REGIME
• CIA TRAINING FOR CONTRAS
• CONSTRUCTION OF MILITARY BASES IN NEIGHBORING
HONDURAS
• CONGRESS SUSPENDED MILITARY AID TO THE CONTRAS IN
1984, WHICH PROMPTED REAGAN OFfiCIALS TO EXPLORE
COVERT AVENUES OF ASSISTANCE
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR
• LINKAGE OF TWO OTHERWISE VASTLY DIFFERENT FOREIGN
POLICY PROBLEMS
• HOW TO SECURE THE RELEASE OF AMERICAN HOSTAGES HELD
BY IRANIAN-BACKED KIDNAPPERS IN LEBANON AND HOW TO
SUPPORT THE CONTRA REBELS FIGHTING AGAINST
NICARAGUA’S CUBAN-STYLE SANDINISTAS?
• PUBLIC OPTIONS WERE LIMITED
– REAGAN HAD RULED OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEGOTIATING WITH
HOSTAGE TAKERS, CONGRESS REFUSED TO ALLOW MILITARY AID
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR
• IN AUGUST 1985 REAGAN APPROVED A PLAN TO SELL 500
TOW ANTITANK MISSILES TO IRAN, VIA THE ISRAELIS, IN
EXCHANGE FOR THE RELEASE OF AMERICANS HELD BY
TERRORISTS IN LEBANON (REAGAN DENIED IT)
• IN NOVEMBER 1985, THERE WAS A PROPOSAL TO SELL HAWK
ANTIAIRCRAFT MISSILES TO IRAN
• OPPOSED TO THE ADMINISTRATION’S STATED POLICY (DISSENT
WITHIN US GOV.)
• ILLEGAL UNDER U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL LAW
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR
• MISSILES AND SPARE PARTS WERE EXPORTED TO IRAN BY THE END
OF 1986
• SECRET FUNNELING OF THE FUNDS FROM THE MISSILE SALES TO
SWISS BANK ACCOUNTS OWNED BY THE NICARAGUAN CONTRA
REBELS
• A CONGRESSIONAL LAW PASSED IN OCTOBER 1984 SPECIFICALLY
FORBADE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT FROM SUPPORTING ANY
PARAMILITARY GROUP IN NICARAGUA
• TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
• LATER INVESTIGATIONS SUGGESTED NUMEROUS ACCOUNTING
IRREGULARITIES
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR
• LEBANESE MAGAZINE, ASH-SHIRAA, REVEALED THAT THE
AMERICANS HAD BEEN SELLING MISSILES TO THE IRANIANS
• REAGAN RESPONDED WITH A TELEVISED STATEMENT IN
WHICH HE DENIED DEAL
• REAGAN APPOINTED AN INDEPENDENT COMMISSION TO
INVESTIGATE THE AFFAIR
• LATER COURT CASE, ELEVEN WERE CONVICTED
• BUSH PARDONED SIX OTHER PERSONS IMPLICATED IN THE
IRAN-CONTRA SCANDAL
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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IRAN-IRAQ WAR
• SEPTEMBER 1980 – AUGUST 1988
• TWO OTHER INCIDENTS INVOLVING THE UNITED STATES
• ON 17 MAY 1987, IRAQI AIRCRAFT ATTACKED IN THE PERSIAN
GULF THE U.S. NAVY FRIGATE STARK, EVIDENTLY BY MISTAKE,
RESULTING IN 37 U.S. DEAD
• IN THE SECOND, ON 3 JULY 1988, THE CREW OF THE U.S.
CRUISER VINCENNES MISTOOK AN IRANIAN AIRLINER FOR AN
ATTACKING MILITARY AIRCRAFT
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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Iran Air Flight 655 was an Iran Air
civilian passenger flight from Tehran
to Dubai that was shot down by the
the United States Navy guided
missile cruiser USS Vincennes on 3
July 1988
The attack took place in Iranian
airspace, over Iran's territorial
waters in the Persian Gulf, and on
the flight's usual flight path
The aircraft, an Airbus A300 B2-203,
was destroyed by SM-2MR surfaceto-air missiles fired from the
Vincennes
All 290 on board, including 66
children and 16 crew, died.
This attack ranks ninth among the
deadliest disasters in aviation
history
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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STILL AN IDEOLOGICAL CONFLICT?
• THE COLD WAR IS OFTEN PORTRAYED AS A CONFLICT
BETWEEN TWO COMPETING IDEOLOGIES:
• CAPITALISM VS COMMUNISM
• THE USSR SYMBOLIZED COMMUNISM (THE IDEOLOGY OF MARXISMLENINISM),
• THE USA STOOD FOR LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM
• OR: A BATTLE FOR SUPREMACY BETWEEN TWO POWERFUL
COUNTRIES PURSUING THEIR OWN INTERESTS
IDEOLOGY WAS MERELY A TOOL?
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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NEW ARMS RACE
• Reagan charged that the Soviet Union had been
engaging in “the greatest military buildup in the
history of man” and that it was “plainly ...offensive in
nature”
• WHITE HOUSE INITIATED THE LARGEST PEACE TIME MILITARY
BUILD-UP IN US HISTORY, WITH DEFENSE EXPENDITURES
CONSUMING MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OF THE FEDERAL
BUDGET BETWEEN 1981 AND 1985
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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NEW ARMS RACE
• THE SOVIET UNION WAS COMPELLED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE
1980S TO RAISE THE SHARE OF ITS DEFENSE SPENDING FROM 22
PERCENT TO 27 PERCENT OF GDP
• IT FROZE THE PRODUCTION OF CIVILIAN GOODS AT 1980 LEVELS
• REAGAN ADMINISTRATION APPEARED UNINTERESTED IN ARMS
CONTROL
– REJECTED THE UNRATIFIED STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TREATY (SALTII)
– PROPOSED THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TALKS (START)
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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SUNK-COST TRAP
• TENDENCY OF DECISION MAKERS TO
DEVOTE MORE EFFORT, E. G.
MONETARY, MANPOWER, AND OTHER
RESOURCES, TO A COURSE OF ACTION
TO RATIONALIZE ONE’S CHOICE
SELECTION AS RATIONAL, EVEN WHEN
THE DECISION IS A POOR CHOICE OR
NO LONGER RELEVANT
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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DID REAGAN HAVE A STRATEGY TO END THE ARMS RACE?
• SOVIETS DISMISSED START TALKS AS ONLY A GIMMICK, A FALSE
INITIATIVE
• CONTRADICTION BETWEEN REAGAN’S HAWKISH RHETORIC
AND HIS ANTI-NUCLEARISM
• LARGER VISION FOR U.S. COLD WAR POLICY, ONE THAT HE
DEVELOPED BEFORE TAKING OFFICE AS PRESIDENT
• SOUGHT NOT JUST TO MANAGE THE COLD WAR, BUT TO WIN
IT
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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REAGAN
• RELIGIOUS FAITH
• SPENT FIVE YEARS AS A LIFEGUARD
• BELIEF THAT HE HAD A MISSION TO
FULFILL IN LIFE
• AS AN ACTOR PERFORMED IN
ANTIWAR PLAYS
– PLANNED TO READ AN ANTI-NUCLEAR
POEM AT THE RALLY IN 1945, BUT
WARNER BROTHERS, THE STUDIO TO
WHICH REAGAN WAS CONTRACTED AS
A FILM ACTOR, INFORMED HIM THAT
HE COULD NOT PARTICIPATE
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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ANTI-NUKE AND ANTI-COMMUNIST
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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TACTICS VS STRATEGY TO TACKLE THE SOVIET
PROBLEM
• REAGAN ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCED IT WOULD HONOR
THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION (NATO) 1979
DECISION TO DEPLOY US INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR
MISSILES
• ANNOUNCEMENT PROMPTED PUBLIC PROTESTS
THROUGHOUT EUROPE
• THE ADMINISTRATION PUT FORWARD THE SO-CALLED ZERO
OPTION
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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ZERO OPTION
• SOVIET-AMERICAN RELATIONS WERE AT A VERY LOW POINT
• REAGAN PROPOSED THIS PLAN ON 18 NOVEMBER 1981
• HE OFFERED NOT TO PROCEED WITH THE DEPLOYMENT OF
PERSHING II AND CRUISE MISSILES – PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED ON
12 NOVEMBER 1979 AND DUE TO BEGIN IN 1983 – IF THE SOVIET
UNION WOULD REMOVE ITS SS-4, SS-5 AND SS-20 MISSILES
TARGETED ON WESTERN EUROPE
– ZERO OPTION CONSTITUTED THE BASIS OF THE INTERMEDIATE-RANGE
NUCLEAR FORCES TREATY, AGREED IN PRINCIPLE IN SEPTEMBER 1987
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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Korean Air Lines Flight 007
(also known as KAL007 and
KE007[note 2]) was a
scheduled Korean Air Lines
flight from New York City to
Seoul via Anchorage. On
September 1, 1983, the
airliner serving the flight was
shot down by a Soviet Su-15
interceptor near Moneron
Island, west of Sakhalin Island
All 269 passengers and crew
aboard were killed, including
Lawrence McDonald, a sitting
member of the United States
Congress. The aircraft was en
route from Anchorage to
Seoul when it flew through
prohibited Soviet airspace
around the time of a U.S.
reconnaissance mission
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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CLOSE TO CONFLICT
• IN NOVEMBER, NATO CONDUCTED A LARGE-SCALE MILITARY
EXERCISE IN EUROPE
• SIMULATED A NUCLEAR ATTACK ON THE USSR
• MOSCOW TOOK STEPS TO PREPARE THE SOVIET MILITARY FOR
A LARGE SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICT
• REORIENTATION BEGAN, BUT IT WAS SLOW
• REMAINED ICY UNTIL NOVEMBER 1985
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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SHIFT IN POLICY
• BY THE FALL OF 1983, SUPERPOWER RELATIONS WERE MORE
HOSTILE THAN AT ANY PERIOD
• NOVEMBER 1983 - THE PRESIDENT HAD ESTABLISHED AN
ADVISORY GROUP WHOSE PURPOSE WAS TO CHART A COURSE
TOWARD “CONSTRUCTIVE COOPERATION” WITH THE KREMLIN
• REDUCE THE RISK OF WAR, CONCERN ABOUT (ACCIDENTAL)
NUCLEAR CONFRONTATION
• NEGOCIATE FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH JETTISONED
• WHITE HOUSE HAD JETTISONED ITS CONFRONTATIONAL
APPROACH BY 1984
• BETWEEN 1984 AND 1988, THE GOAL WAS TO IMPROVE
SUPERPOWER RELATIONS
• STILL PRESSURE KEPT ON THE SOVIETS
• EXPLOIT THE ECONOMIC WEAKNESS OF THE USSR
• NO INTENTION TO BRING DOWN THE SOVIET UNION BECAUSE
OF FEAR OF INSTABILITY
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.
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