Transcript George HW Bush

Elections recap
1980s-2000s
1980 Election
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1980
• Incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter
vs. Former California Governor Ronald Reagan.
• Reagan, aided by the Iran hostage crisis and a worsening
economy at home, won the election in a landslide,
receiving the highest number of electoral votes ever won
by a non-incumbent presidential candidate, and became
the 40th President of the United States.
• Republicans won control of the United States Senate for
the first time in 28 years. This election marked the
beginning of what is popularly called the "Reagan
Revolution."
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1984
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1984
• Incumbent President Ronald Reagan, the Republican candidate, and
former Vice President Walter Mondale, the Democratic candidate.
• Reagan was helped by a strong economic recovery from the deep
recession of 1981–1982.
• Mondale ran a liberal campaign, supporting a nuclear freeze and the
Equal Rights Amendment (ERA).
• He spoke against what he considered to be unfairness in Reagan's
economic policies and the need to reduce federal budget deficits.
• Mondale chose U.S. Rep. Geraldine A. Ferraro of New York as his
running mate, making her the first woman nominated for that position
by a major party.
• Reagan carried 49 of the 50 states and the national popular vote,
Reagan received 58.8% to Mondale's 40.6%. No candidate since then
has managed to equal or surpass Reagan's 1984 electoral result.
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1988
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1988
• 22nd Amendment – only two terms so…
• Reagan's Vice President, George H. W. Bush, won the
Republican nomination, while the Democrats nominated
Michael Dukakis, Governor of Massachusetts.
• Bush capitalized on a good economy, a stable international
stage, and on Reagan's popularity, while Dukakis's campaign
suffered from several miscues such as the Willie Horton TV ad
and riding awkwardly inside a tank. The result was a third
consecutive Republican landslide.
• Willie Horton Ad
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"By the time we're finished, they're going to wonder
whether Willie Horton is Dukakis' running mate."
1988
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1992
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1992
• The United States presidential election of 1992 had three
major candidates: Incumbent Republican President
George H. W. Bush; Democratic Arkansas Governor Bill
Clinton, and independent Texas businessman Ross Perot.
• Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by
breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes,
and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy,
was less important following the end of the Cold War
and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East
after the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War.
• Clinton won the popular vote. The election was a
significant realigning election after three consecutive
Republican landslides, as the Democratic Party picked up,
but only carried four states in Clinton's native South.
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1996
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1996
• The election of 1996 was between the Democratic President
Bill Clinton of Arkansas and the Republican, former Senator
Bob Dole of Kansas. Businessman Ross Perot ran as candidate
for the Reform Party.
• Clinton benefited from an economy which recovered from the
early 1990s recession and a relatively stable world stage.
Compared to the 50-year-old Clinton, then 73-year-old Dole
appeared especially old and frail, as illustrated by an
embarrassing fall off a stage during a campaign event. Dole
further enhanced this contrast on September 18 when he
made a reference to a no-hitter thrown the day before by the
“Brooklyn Dodgers”, a team that had left Brooklyn for Los
Angeles four decades earlier. On November 5, 1996, President
Clinton went on to win re-election with a substantial margin in
the popular vote and electoral college.
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2000
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2000
• The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Republican
candidate George W. Bush, then-governor of Texas and son of former president George H.
W. Bush (1989–1993), and Democratic candidate Al Gore, then-Vice President. Ralph Nader
ran as a third party candidate (Green Party). Many say that he took much-needed votes
away from Al Gore.
• Gore campaigned as a champion of “working families” while Bush campaigned
“compassionate conservative”
• The election was noteworthy for a controversy over the awarding of Florida's 25 electoral
votes, the subsequent recount process in that state, and the unusual event of the winning
candidate having received fewer popular votes than the runner-up.
• Later research showed that by the standards requested by the Gore campaign in their
contest brief and set by the Florida Supreme Court, Bush would have won the recount.
However, had the Gore campaign asked for a full, statewide recount the same research
indicates that Gore would have probably won the recount by about 100 votes statewide,
consequently giving him Florida's electoral votes and victory in the Presidential election.
• Closest since 1876, first to be decided by supreme court
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2004
2004
• In the United States presidential election of 2004 Republican Party candidate and incumbent
President George W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate
John Kerry, the then-junior U.S. Senator from Massachusetts and Vietnam Veteran. Foreign
policy was the dominant theme throughout the election campaign, particularly Bush's
conduct of the War on Terrorism and the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
• Bush focused his campaign on national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader and
contrasted Kerry as a "flip-flopper." Bush's point was that Americans could trust him to be
tough on terrorism while Kerry would be "uncertain in the face of danger." Bush also sought
to portray Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal" who was out of touch with mainstream
Americans. One of Kerry's slogans was "Stronger at home, respected in the world." This
advanced the suggestion that Kerry would pay more attention to domestic concerns; it also
encapsulated Kerry's contention that Bush had alienated American allies by his foreign policy.
• According to one exit poll, people who voted for Bush cited the issues of terrorism and moral
values as the most important factors in their decision. Kerry supporters cited the war in Iraq,
the economy and jobs, and health care.
• “Red” = republican and “Blue” = democrat for counties and states begins around this time
2008
2008
• Democrat Barack Obama, then the junior United States Senator from Illinois,
defeated Republican John McCain, the senior U.S. Senator from Arizona.
Obama received 365 electoral votes, and McCain 173. The popular vote was
69,456,897 to 59,934,814, respectively. Obama received the most votes for a
presidential candidate in American history.
• During the presidential election campaign, the major-party candidates ran on
a platform of change and reform in Washington. Domestic policy and the
economy eventually emerged as the main themes in the last few months of
the election campaign after the onset of an economic crisis.
• Nine states voted for a different party than they did in the 2004 election. Each
had voted for the Republican nominee in 2004 and contributed to Obama's
sizable Electoral College victory.
• This was the first U.S. presidential election since 1952 in which neither major
party nominee was the incumbent president, nor the incumbent vice
president. This also was the first U.S. presidential election in which an African
American was elected, as well as the first in which an African American won
the nomination of one of the two major parties.
2012
• As the incumbent president, Obama secured the Democratic nomination
with no serious opposition. The Republican Party was more fractured; Mitt
Romney was consistently competitive in the polls, but faced challenges
from a number of more conservative contenders whose popularity each
fluctuated
• Debate centered largely around sound responses to the Great Recession in
terms of economic recovery and job creation
• Other issues included long-term federal budget issues, the future of social
insurance programs, and the Affordable Care Act. Foreign policy was also
discussed including the phase-out of the Iraq War, the size of and spending
on the military, preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and
appropriate counteractions to terrorism.
2012
2012
Themes of Modern Elections
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Partisan Politics
Campaign Spending
TV Ads (“Going Negative”)
Selection of VP
Importance of debates?
VP debates
Conventions
Changing demographics (Latino and Asian growth especially)
Gay rights, minority rights, women’s issues
Role of Colbert, etc.
Mid-term elections
1980---2012
-from “Greatest Generation to baby boomers
- 2 Vietnam veteran candidates lose
• 2016—possible contenders – Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush (too early to tell)