Transcript Folie 1 - Jonathan M. Powell

American Foreign &
Defense Policy
Early Thoughts…
Sam Adams
• “Even when there is a necessity of military
power…a wise and prudent people will always
have a watchful eye over it”
Early Thoughts…
Elbridge Gerry
• “standing armies in time of peace are
inconsistent with the principles of republican
governments, dangerous to the liberties of a free
people, and generally converted into destructive
engines for establishing despotism”
Early Thoughts…
Alexander Hamilton
• “a dangerous and expensive undertaking”
Early Thoughts…
James Madison
• A standing military force…will not long be safe
companions to liberty. The means of defense
against foreign danger have always been the
instruments of tyranny at home.
Civil-Military Problematique
The very thing that is designed to protect a polity
can become its greatest threat
Civil-Military Problematique
The very thing that is designed to protect a polity
can become its greatest threat
Solutions?
The Reality of Foreign Policy
Early U.S. Foreign Policy was a mixture of
• Realism (Pursuing American Interests) and
• Idealism (Carrying Out American Ideals)
with a strong rejection of traditional Imperialism.
• Instances of Realism:
• Barbary Wars (1801 – 1805; 1815)
• Louisiana Purchase (1803)
• War of 1812
• U.S. Mexican War (1846 – 1848)
Interests Win #1: The Barbary Wars
• Ideal: Not having an external military presence
• Event: North African Berber States captured U.S.
ships for slaves and ransom.
• Problematic: In 1800, more than 15% of the federal
budget was used for tribute payments.
• Action: Improve the U.S. Navy
Interests Win #2: The Louisiana Purchase
• Ideal: The President should be passive
• Event: French offer to sell Louisiana to U.S.
• Practical Goals: Get Europeans out – and avoid
entanglement in European conflicts
• Washington’s Farewell Address
• The Monroe Doctrine (1823)
• Problematic: This was a huge opportunity, too
good to pass up
A Case for Pragmatism: The Louisiana Purchase
Action: Jefferson makes the Purchase
Interests Win #3: The War of 1812
• Chesapeake – Leopard Affair
• Despite clear political interests, a sense of humiliation contributed to
the U.S. declaration of war against the United Kingdom.
Ideals Win #1: The Quest for Mexican Oil
• Interest: The United States needed petroleum
• Event: Mexico nationalizes petroleum industry in
1938, making it harder to get oil, and British wanted to
invade
• Tempting: Seized oil will be cheaper
• Problematic: Seizure violates the ideal of voluntary
trade
• Idealistic Action: The U.S. restrains Great Britain and
negotiates oil trade with Mexico
Ideals Win #2: The Suez Canal Controversy
• Interest: The United States want to keep global trade
going.
• Event: Egypt nationalizes the Suez Canal in 1956,
potentially choking off 10% of global trade; Britain,
Israel and France invade.
• Tempting: Western control would be more convenient
• Problematic: Seizure violates the ideal of Good
Neighbor policy
• Idealistic Action: The U.S. restrains military action
Also a Conflict between Politics and the People
• Politicians like Wilson knew that the public dislikes
Interventionism – making it difficult to balance interests and
ideals
1916 Campaign on Peace
Prepare for War
Joining the Rest of the World – the End of Isolationism
• Beginning with Franklin D. Roosevelt – the United States
reevaluate their role in the World:
• Political Elites start to see Isolationism as
problematic
• The United States have a shared responsibility for
mankind
• U.S. Power as a force for good in the World
• Switch from Quincy Adams "Americans should not go abroad to
slay dragons they do not understand in the name of spreading
democracy“ – to Idealism
The American Century
• 1945 puts the Unites States into a position of unique
opportunity:
• First, a global power shift from
VS.
•With the defeat of Fascism, the World is split between the U.S. led
West and the Communist Block under the Soviet Union (behind the
“Iron Curtain”).
Full Engagement replaces Isolationism
• With the exception of the United States, the Industrial World
laid in ruins after WWII.
• Used power to build institutions to preserve global peace:
• The United Nations (UN)
• The World Bank
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
• General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
(GATT), which became the World Trade
Organization (WTO)
• The Marshall Plan
• Engagement should replace War.
This Policy led to mixed results
Some initiatives were clearly a success:
• The reconstruction of Europe
• Globalization
• The prevention of Nuclear War
• Victory in the Cold War
• “Idealistic” Wars – Humanitarian Intervention
(Middle East, Balkans,…)
Others, however, were less successful:
• No Third World War, but a Third World’s War
• Instability due to rapid decolonization
American Hegemony ruled the day
• No decision on a global scale can be made without
U.S. consent.
• The U.S. are the only state that can almost immediately
project power (military, political, economic)
everywhere on the globe
• In short: From refusing to join the World System, the
United States became its main proponent
• The U.S. are (were?) the global “Ordnungsmacht – the
Order Maker
Being the World’s superpower comes at a price!
• Strong military buildup
Ultimately, on what does U.S. Power rest?
• Is it this?
Or this?
• No, the answer to this question is in everyone’s
pocket.
The true source of American Power
More than just a currency!
• Backed up by the power of the U.S. economy
• Ticket to economic security (global reserve
currency)
Made possible by the strength of the U.S. Economy
U.S. Power is waning
• Economic power is declining:
• From being the world’s biggest creditor,
beginning with the seventies the nation
became the world’s biggest debtor.
• By 2020, the U.S. will spend more on debt
interest than on its military.
• By 2015, Interest payments to China alone
will cover the cost of the Chinese army.
If Money drains, Power drains
• U.S. dependence on others reduces its ability
to act as the global order maker.
• It will become harder to push for American
ideals like
• Democracy
• Human Rights
• Capitalism
on a global scale.