Transcript Trimble_Scheleur

Working With Respondents to
Improve Inventory Statistics
Author: John Trimble
U.S. Census Bureau
Presenter: Anne Russell
U.S. Census Bureau
Overview
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Why this project?
Process used
Issues uncovered
Engaging respondents
Solutions
Final results
Why this project?
• Study of the Supply Chain
• Increased separation between physical
and financial ownership of inventories
• Inventories important component of
GDP
• Questions about inventory reporting
Study Inventory Questions Across
the Economic Surveys
• Three monthly surveys
• One quarterly survey
• Four annual surveys
• The 5 year Economic Census
NAICS sectors covered: retail, wholesale,
manufacturing, mining, construction,
and selected service industries
Plan to Study Inventory Statistics
• Examine and compare inventory questions across
different programs.
• Conduct Respondent Debriefing Interviews
• Meet with the major data users, Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA)
• Compare what respondents are reporting with data
user needs and expectations.
• Design new inventory questions.
• Test and implement new designs.
Major Inconsistencies Found
• Inventories owned wherever held vs.
inventories in the United States
• Three ways of defining United States:
– 50 states and the District of Columbia
– Including Puerto Rico and U.S. territories
– Excluding foreign trade zones
Respondent Debriefing Interviews
– Preliminary Findings
• Companies report values directly from their
books. (all 29)
• Adjustments are not being made to conform
to our include and exclude instructions.
(28/29)
• Inventories on an ownership basis,
regardless of where held. (all 29)
• Companies including inventories outside of
U.S. (12 of 29)
What Does The Bureau of
Economic Analysis Want Included
in Inventory?
• Value of Inventories in the 50 states
and the District of Columbia.
• Value of Inventories located in foreign
trade zones in these areas.
Preliminary Inventory
Recommendations
• Collect inventory in a manner
consistent with company record
keeping.
• Ask companies to report inventories on
an ownership basis, wherever held.
• Ask for inventories outside of the 50
states and the District of Columbia in a
separate question.
Respondent Debriefing Interviews
– Final Findings
• Companies report values directly from their books.
(all 55)
• Adjustments are not being made to conform to our
include and exclude instructions. (53/55)
• Inventories on an ownership basis, regardless of
where held. (all 55)
• Most companies follow generally accepted
accounting principals (GAAP).
• Include/excludes conform to GAAP, except
instruction to exclude inventory outside U.S. (17/55
include inventory outside U.S.)
Developing A New Approach
• Getting the help of cognitive experts
and CPA’s to improve the inventory
questions.
• Asking for information companies
readily have in their books.
• Less reliance on respondents reading
and following the directions.
Meeting BEA Needs With More
Accurate Inventory Measures
• How do we measure inventory in the
United States when companies record
inventory on a wherever held basis?
• Ask for inventory in a way that is most
consistent with standard accounting
practices.
• Also ask for what portion of reported
inventory is outside the United States.
Standard Inventory Questions in
Economic Programs
• Standard titles and wording
• Consistent inventory collection
methodology
• Uniform definitions
• Adapt standards to the needs of each
Census program collecting inventory
Testing New Inventory Questions
• Designs for each survey tested in two
rounds of cognitive interviews
• Changes to wording and layout made
during the interview process as we
applied what we learned
• Small pilot test conducted on final
version of questions after cognitive
interviews
Item 4 Value of Inventories
Item 5 Inventory By Valuation
Method
Item 6 Inventory Outside of The
United States
Implementation of New Questions
• First use of new designs in the 2005 Annual
Retail Trade Survey and the 2005 Annual
Wholesale Trade Survey
• Introduction of new designs for the Annual
Survey of Manufacturers scheduled for 2007
• All programs collecting inventories in the
2007 Economic Census to also use the new
designs
2005 Annual Retail Trade and 2005
Annual Wholesale Trade
Percent of Inventories not in the United
States reported by companies doing
business in the United States:
• Wholesale Trade
• Retail Trade
3.5 percent
0.1 percent
Inventory Collection Conclusions
• Most respondents will report readily available
data from their books.
• Respondents don’t adjust book figures to
comply with special instructions.
• Without oversight, survey questions can
evolve differently in different surveys.
Improving Inventory Collection
• Conduct respondent debriefing interviews
• Redesign questions to best fit respondents
record keeping practices.
• Conduct cognitive interviews with
respondents to test new questions.
• Review programs to assure common data
collection approaches where practicable.
Thanks!
Author: John Trimble
[email protected]
Presenter: Anne Russell
[email protected]