Transcript New Groups & the Future

Colombia: Empowerment of
non-violent Groups & the Future
Former hostage Marcos Baquero (kidnapped 2009), center top, embraces
his wife Olga Lucia Tao, right, after he was released by the Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC, in Villavicencio, Colombia, Wednesday
Feb. 9, 2011. Baquero, member of the municipal council of San Jose del
Guaviare
1991 Constitution:
A New Beginning
• National Executive
– President elected by
a plurality (every four
years)
– Re-election initially
prohibited
• Liberal and
Conservative party
leaders fear an
independent political
leader
• Concern with
dictatorship
• Protecting the
Presidential Palace
1991 Constitution:
A New Beginning or not?
Traditional Political Elite continues to dominate
the national executive
2002 – Uribe breaks hold of Liberal &
Conservative Parties on the presidency
2004 - Uribe gains approval for reelection of the
president
• Uribe’s success with pacification
• Discrediting of Liberal & Conservative political parties
Senate of Colombia (2010)
Composition by Political Party .
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Partido de la U: 28 senadores.
Partido Conservador: 23 senadores.
Partido Liberal: 17 senadores.
Partido de Integración Nacional: 9 senadores.
Partido Cambio Radical: 8 senadores.
Polo Democrático Alternativo: 8 senadores.
Partido Verde: 5 senadores.
Movimiento Mira: 3 senadores
Institutions: Legislative Power –
1991 Constitution
• National Legislature
– Congress (more
powerful than
under 1886
Constitution)
• House –
– by departmental
constituency,
– proportional
representation
• National Congress
Political Institutions: Constitution
of 1991
• Judiciary
– Code law system
typical of Latin
America
– Remains
weakest of the
three branches
of government
– Office of National
Procurator –
separated from
the courts
New Palace of Justice Building
Changes in Political Institutions:
Departments
• Departmental Governors traditionally
named by the national executive
• Constitution of 1991
– Initially kept the traditional system of
appointed departmental governors
– Popular pressure forced move to direct
election
– Plurality in one department-wide election
Government Machinery – other
features
• 1991 constitution made efforts to
decentralize power to the Departments
– Plans for revenue sharing
– Value added taxes
• Municipal Government
– Popular elections of mayors
– Municipal Councils strengthened
Non-governmental
organizations
• Proliferation in 1990’s
– Most commonly encompass middle classes
– Support for Colombian NGO’s strong in
Europe and the USA
• Influence on policy making is limited
Traditional Groups
• Roman Catholic church
– Historic conservatism
– Efforts to mediate
violence relatively
ineffectual
– Camillo Torres & worker
priests
Traditional Groups
• Association of large
industrialists (ANDI)
– Founded in 1944
– Leading advocate of free
enterprise in Colombia
– Interests of members
overlap with large
agricultural producers
Traditional Groups
• National
Federation of
Coffee
Growers
(FEDECAFE)
– Founded in 1927
– Dominated by
larger coffee
producers/exporte
rs
Organized Labor
• Labor Federations
– CTC (Confederation of Colombian Workers)
• Founded in 1935
• Ties to the Liberal Party
– UTC (Union of Colombian Workers)
• Founded during presidency of Conservative Mariano Ospina
(in 1946)
• Surpassed CTC in 1950’s
– CSTC (Syndical Confederation of Workers of
Colombia)
• Became Colombia’s largest labor federation in 1980’s
• Largely independent from the political parties
• Most aggressive of the three in upholding worker rights
Policy Making and the “New
Actors”
• Peasants
– not well organized
– Displaced and cluster around large cities
• Urban poor
• Drug Dealers
– Large cartels broken apart due largely to
international pressure
– After the Cartels?
Policy Making and the “Violent
Groups (anti-establishment
elements )
• Guerrillas
– FARC
– ELN
– M19 (largely
destroyed)
• FARC guerrillas in Putumayo
where Plan Colombia is
being implemented
Paramilitary Groups:
AUC (violent pro-establishment)
• Formed initially by large land owners for
protection against the insurgents
• Ranks of AUC filled by same kinds of
individuals who were in the surgency
• Often turned against large land owners
and siezed property for themselves
USA Offers Counterinsurgency
Assistance - 1999
• Colombia supplies 90% of the United
States’ Cocaine
• Main Refinery for Latin American drugs
• FARC. ELN, and AUC are continuous
threats to peace and prosperity in
Colombia and the United States
• U.S.A. Interest:
– Prevent drug traffickers from taking over
– Preserve a stable democracy
• “Accepts “Plan Colombia”
1999
• Military to military
relationships strengthened
– Equipment provided to
Colombian military
– U. S. “trainers” teach
counterinsurgency tactics
• Pastrana policy of providing
sanctuaries for insurgents
worsens the situation
• Conservative political party
loses credibility
• Wins election of 2002
by promising to be hard
on violence and drugs
• Close alliance with
President Bush
• No sanctuaries
• Increased commitment
of central government
to fight FARC and ELN
Results of Uribe Policies
• Homicides both individual and massacre down by
19.2% and 62% respectively
• Drug trading set record lows and believe that half
of cocaine did not make it to the market
• Many FARC, ELN and Parliamentary leaders
have been captured
• Reports of success must be taken with a “grain of
salt” (In terrorist’s best interest – and on occasion
that of the government – not to reveal
unfavorable information)
Álvaro Uribe Vélez
Success in restoring order: Key issue in 2006 Presidential
election
• Campaigning for the 2006
presidential elections in
Bogotá, Colombia.
Summary: Results of 28 May 2006 Colombian presidential election
Parties - Candidates
Álvaro Uribe Vélez - Colombia First (Primero Colombia)
Votes
%
7,363,421
62.20
Carlos Gaviria Díaz - Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democrático Alternativo)
2,609,412
22.04
Horacio Serpa Uribe - Colombian Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Colombiano)
1,401,173
11.84
Antanas Mockus Sivickas - Indigenous Social Alliance Movement (Movimiento Alianza Social Indígena)
146,540
1.24
Enrique Parejo González - National Democratic Reconstruction (Reconstrucción Democrática Nacional)
44,610
0.38
Álvaro Leyva Durán - National Movement for Reconciliation (Movimiento Nacional de Reconciliación)
22,039
0.19
Carlos Arturo Rincón Barreto - Colombian Community and Communal Political Movement (Movimiento Politico Comunal
y Comunidad Colombiano)
20,477
0.17
11,607,672
98.05
230,749
1.95
11,838,421
100.00
Total votes for candidates
Blank votes
Total valid votes
Null votes
Unmarked ballots
136,326
84,041
Total votes cast (turnout 45.1%)
12,058,788
Registered voters
26,731,700
Criticism of “Plan
Colombia”
• Leftist governments question the real objectives
behind the Plan(i.e. oil and natural resources)
• US help intended to suppress the peasants and
strengthen exploitative ruling elites
• Despite over a million acres of coca plants being
destroyed, the same percentage of cocaine is
supplied to the United States as was supplied
when Plan Colombia began in 2000
No Third Term: End of the
Uribe Era
• Supreme Court rejects referendum
proposal to to allow for a second
reelection of President
• Liberal & Conservative political parties
unable to regain traction
• Contenders
– Party of U
– Greens
Presidential Run Off Election
(June 20, 2010)
Juan Manuel Santos
Antanas Mockus
Party of the U
Green Party
Bogotá
Bogotá
Sergio Fajardo
Angelino Garzón
9,028,943
69.13
3,587,975
27.47
The Future of Political Order in
Colombia
• Capture of Mono
Joyoy Sept. 2010
(Víctor Julio Suárez Rojas)
• Will the gains in
political order be
consolidated?
• Role of the United
States
Other Critical Questions for
Assessing the Political Future
of Colombia
• Can the poor be integrated into national
public life?
– Displaced peasants
– Slum dwellers
• Will the political system become more
responsive?
• Can the economy be diversified?
• Will relations with Venezuela & other South
American states improve?