Transcript Iranian Hostage Simulation

HOSTAGE SIMULATION
The King of Illyria had been the supporter of American
foreign policy through the administration of six presidents of
the United States. America needs his country's oil. At
home, he has jailed and killed those who have not
supported him for the past thirty years. He fled to the
United States for political asylum and medical treatment for
his cancer after he was overthrown. In turn, his supporters
are now being jailed and killed. The people of Illyria hold
America responsible because the CIA helped the King gain
power through a coup against their wishes.
HOSTAGE SIMULATION
…continued…
A group of 450 students demonstrate against their former
leader. They take over the American Embassy and seize
sixty-six Americans as hostage. They demand the return of
the King. The Illyrian government initially tries to persuade
the students to release the Americans. It supports
international law that diplomats cannot be held for any
reason. This is very unpopular with the Illyrian people. As a
result, a new government takes power that shares the
demands of the students: "Return our former leader or else!"
You are the President of the United States. What are you going to do
about this crisis?
Choose one of these five options for the situation and explain your choice.
Option 1: Return the leader to the Illyrian students.
This action all but ensures the violent death of the leader. Explain - Why did you
reach this decision? What are your risks in returning the leader?
Option 2: Wait and hope the Illyrians will back down.
Explain - Why did you reach this decision? What are your risks in waiting?
Option 3: Engage in a military strike against the Illyrian students.
Note this is a high -risk situation militarily. Difficult and dangerous terrain and climate
isolate the regime. No bordering country will let you operate a base. Explain - Why
did you reach this decision? What are your risks in using the military?
Option 4: Implement a secret rescue mission of the hostages.
Explain - Why did you choose this option? What are the risks involved in a covert
rescue mission?
Option 5: Engage in a trade embargo against Illyrian.
Explain - Why did you choose this option? What are the risks in starting a trade
embargo?
OPTION
#1 – Give the
King Back
#2 –
Wait and Hope
#3 – Military
Strike
#4 – Secret
Rescue Mission
#5 – Trade
Embargo
PROS
CONS
THE REAL SITUATION
In 1979, Iranian revolutionaries led by the Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini, an anti-American Moslem cleric, overthrew the
Shah. When he fled to the United States, where President
Carter admitted him to receive medical treatment, student
mobs stormed the American Embassy in Teheran. They took
hostages and demanded the return of the Shah to stand
trial. While the Iranians eventually released most of the
women and African Americans, the remaining fifty-two
Americans were held as hostages pending the return of the
Shah, and his assets, to Iran. The revolutionaries claimed the
assets were stolen from Iran with the help of the United
States. These fifty-two American prisoners were held for more
than a year; they suffered solitary confinement, beatings, and
terrifying mock executions.
THE REAL SITUATION
…continued…
During the year of captivity, Carter, who had refused to return the
Shah to Iran or apologize for past U.S. aid to his regime, was
unable to gain the hostages' release through diplomatic
means. He attempted to isolate Iran economically, freezing Iranian
assets in the United States and urging other nations to sever trade
ties to Iran. Carter's standing in the opinion polls sank as the crisis
continued. In desperation, he mounted a rescue raid which failed
and embarrassed him. The political reaction led to congressional
votes for increased military expenditures and a presidential
election campaign issue that helped doomed Carter's reelection
efforts. Carter continued his intense efforts to free the hostages
and finally succeeded in late 1980, too late to benefit his
presidential election effort. In fact last minute delays, and perhaps
deliberate stalling, prevented the hostages from actually being
freed until some minutes after Ronald Reagan was inaugurated.
QUESTIONS TO PONDER
Did Carter make similar or different decisions from
you? Compare your decision to Carter’s; explain their
similarities and differences.
Would you change your mind knowing what you do
now about the outcome? Is it possible for a President
to go back and change his/her mind? What are the
difficulties involved in making such an important
decision?