Transcript Doomsday Clock and Nuclear Age

Doomsday Clock
Bulletin of atomic scientists
www.thebulletin.org
About the clock:
• Established in 1947,
after the U.S. used
atomic weapons in
WWII.
• Method of reading
nuclear danger.
• The closer to
midnight, the more
dangerous the world
becomes.
What is the threat based on?
• First and foremost, nuclear weapons.
Greatest threat to mankind!
• But it also includes climate-changing
technologies and new developments in the
life sciences.
History of clock
• 1953 | Two minutes
to midnight
The United States
and the Soviet Union
test thermonuclear
devices within nine
months of one
another.
• Two countries now
have nukes!
History continued…
• 1963 | Twelve
minutes to midnight
The U.S. and Soviet
signing of the Partial
Test Ban Treaty,
tensions ease after
Cuban Missile Crisis.
• Any treaty to reduce
number of weapons
will move clock back!
History…
Who’s laughing now
Nixon?
• 1968 | Seven
minutes to midnight
France and China
acquire nuclear
weapons. Great
Britain also has
nukes.
History…
• 1969 | Ten minutes
to midnight
The U.S. Senate
ratifies the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation
Treaty.
• What is the NPT
Treaty?
Treaties are Law
Based on NPT• Signed by 170 countries.
• Big 5 committed to
eliminate their nukes and
to other countries
committed to NOT
developing weapons.
• Did not sign, Cuba, South
Africa, Israel, Pakistan,
India, Brazil & Argentina.
Non- Proliferation Treaty
History…
• 1974 | Nine minutes
to midnight
SALT talks reach an
impasse; India
develops a nuclear
weapon.
You gotta
be kiddin’
me!!!
History…
• 1984 | Three
minutes to midnight
The arms race
accelerates.
• Reagan continues
defense spending
increases; including
developing more
nuclear weapons.
I love
my
military
History…
• 1991 | Seventeen
minutes to midnight
The United States
and the Soviet Union
sign the START
Treaty.
• End of Cold War!
• Furthest ever from
midnight.
Man, Rocky’s
Speech worked!!
Boris, I’m
glad we are
friends now.
Drastic reductions after
Cold War!
History
• 1998 | Nine minutes
to midnight
India and Pakistan
"go public" with
nuclear tests.
India’s goin’ down!!!!
You too? That’s
It, I’m gonna go
Fast…
History
• 2002 | Seven
minutes to midnight
The U.S. announces
it will withdraw from
the Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty.
• Terrorists seek to
acquire and use
nuclear and biological
weapons.
Excuse me, how can I get
To the nearest black market?
History
• 2007/ Five Minutes
to Midnight
• North Korea tests a
bomb. Now the North
Koreans have
weapons!
• Axis of Evil!
• 2012, N. Korea still
has nuclear weapons!
North Korea becomes a
nuclear power?
2012, some believe Iran has
nuclear weapons?
Iran says NO Weapons!
Others believe they are
developing technology..
World’s Nuclear Arsenal
2010
• The world's combined stockpile of nuclear
warheads remain at a very high level:
more than 22,000.
• Of these, some 4,800 warheads are
considered operational, of which nearly
2,000 U.S. and Russian warheads are on
high alert, ready for use on short notice.
Best estimates based on FAS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
#8:
#7:
#6:
#5:
#4
#3:
#2:
Pakistan: 90-110 nuclear warheads
India: 80-110
Israel: 80
China: 240
Great Britain: 225
France: 300
USA: 8,500
FAS- Federation of American Scientist
#1 Nuclear Power
• #1: Russia
11,000 warheads.
MAD- Mutually Assured
Destruction- Russia &
U.S. had so many
nukes they could not
attack each other!
2010/ 6 MINUTES TO
MIDNIGHT
• International cooperation
rules the day. Talks between
U.S. & Russia. Start V
Treaty.
• Barack Obama becomes the
first U.S. president to
publicly call for a nuclearweapon-free world.
• The dangers posed by
climate change are still
great, but there are pockets
of progress.
Why do countries want nuclear weapons?
Deterrence
Power & International Prestige
Alliance building
International Atomic Energy
Agency
Inspectors
• The programs of the
IAEA encourage the
development of the
peaceful applications of
nuclear technology
• Provide international
safeguards against
misuse of nuclear
technology through IAEA
Inspectors.
Reports to the United
Nations