Transcript Juvenile Arrest Rates 1980-2009 - Dr. Jeffrey A. Butts, New York, NY

Juvenile Arrest Rates 1980-2009
National Arrest Estimates Calculated with Data from the
FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program
October 25, 2010
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
John Jay College of Criminal Justice
City University of New York
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Data Source and Methods
The national arrest estimates presented here (as well
as the per capita rates based upon those estimates)
were calculated by the Justice Research and
Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal
Justice using data released in 2010 by the Uniform
Crime Reporting Program (UCR) of the Federal Bureau
of Investigation (FBI).
The FBI collects annual information on arrests made
by law enforcement agencies throughout the United
States. Data are collected from jurisdictions
containing a majority of the U.S. population, typically
between 70 and 80 percent of residents nationwide.
The primary publication of UCR data, Crime in the
United States, is based upon data from those police
agencies able to participate fully in the UCR program
each year. Full participation requires that agencies
submit their data to the FBI on time and their data
must cover all arrests for a minimum number of
months during the year. For 2009, the jurisdictions
that participated fully in the UCR program
represented 78 percent of the national population.
Nearly all of the arrest statistics generated by the FBI
are based on this sample.
The FBI calculates just one national estimate for each
major offense. It does not calculate national
estimates for different age groups. To present
national arrest estimates for various groups and to
calculate per capita arrest rates for those groups, this
presentation relies on the FBI’s estimate of total
arrests for each major offense. It uses the data
reported by UCR-participating jurisdictions to
determine the proportion of arrests for each offense
that involved individuals of various ages. That
proportion is then applied to the FBI’s national
estimate for each offense. Arrest rates are
determined by dividing each national arrest estimate
over the appropriate population data from the U.S.
Bureau of the Census.
These estimation procedures were first developed by
Dr. Howard Snyder, now with the Bureau of Justice
Statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile Arrests for Key Offenses
Violent Index Offenses
Property Index Offenses
• Murder
• Robbery
• Aggravated Assault
• Forcible Rape
• Burglary
• Larceny-Theft
• Motor Vehicle Theft
• Arson
Other Offenses
• Weapon Offenses
• Drug Law Violations
This presentation concentrates on the major crime categories,
including the 8 offenses in the Violent and Property Crime Indices,
Source: John Jay College
arrest estimates using
data from Crime
in thedrugs.
United States, 1980 through 2009.
and calculations
2 otherof national
key offenses,
weapons
and
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile Arrests Nationwide
Historic Decline
Low Point
High Point
Total Arrests
Rebound
Recovery
1995
2004
2006
2009
2,745,000
2,202,000
2,219,600
1,923,500
Violent
Index estimate 147,700
100,700
86,300
The
national
for total number of91,100
juvenile arrests
(i.e., all arrests
Murder
3,300
1,100
1,300
1,200
involving
youth
under
age
18
nationwide)
fell
below
2
million
in
2009;
the
Robbery
55,500
25,300
35,000
31,800
first time
this has happened
since 1984. 60,400
Aggravated
Assault
83,500
60,800
50,200
Forcible Rape
5,500
4,200
3,600
3,100
Property Index
737,400
452,300
404,700
421,800
Burglary
Larceny-Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson
135,800
510,600
80,500
10,500
81,600
323,500
39,300
7,800
83,900
278,100
34,600
8,100
75,600
320,700
20,000
5,400
Weapons Offenses
56,300
40,500
47,200
34,100
Drug Offenses
189,800
193,900
196,700
171,600
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile Arrests Nationwide
Historic Decline
Low Point
High Point
Rebound
Recovery
1995
2004
2006
2009
Total Arrests
2,745,000
2,202,000
2,219,600
1,923,500
Violent Index
147,700
91,100
100,700
86,300
Murder
3,300
1,100
1,300
1,200
The national
the number of juvenile
in the Violent 31,800
Robbery estimate for
55,500
25,300 arrests 35,000
Aggravated
83,500
60,400
60,800
50,200
CrimeAssault
Index (i.e., murder,
robbery, forcible
rape, and aggravated
assault)
Forcible Rape
5,500
4,200
3,600
3,100
fell in 2009 to the lowest level since 1987.
Property Index
737,400
452,300
404,700
421,800
Burglary
Larceny-Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson
135,800
510,600
80,500
10,500
81,600
323,500
39,300
7,800
83,900
278,100
34,600
8,100
75,600
320,700
20,000
5,400
Weapons Offenses
56,300
40,500
47,200
34,100
Drug Offenses
189,800
193,900
196,700
171,600
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile Arrests Nationwide
Historic Decline
Low Point
High Point
Rebound
Recovery
1995
2004
2006
2009
Total Arrests
2,745,000
2,202,000
2,219,600
1,923,500
Violent Index
147,700
91,100
100,700
86,300
Murder
3,300
1,100
Robbery
55,500
25,300
The
estimated
number
of
juvenile
murder
arrests
Aggravated Assault
83,500
60,400
nearly
the 30-year
low seen in 2004.
Forciblematched
Rape
5,500
4,200
1,300
35,000
nationwide
60,800in
3,600
2009
1,200
31,800
50,200
3,100
Property Index
737,400
452,300
404,700
421,800
Burglary
Larceny-Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson
135,800
510,600
80,500
10,500
81,600
323,500
39,300
7,800
83,900
278,100
34,600
8,100
75,600
320,700
20,000
5,400
Weapons Offenses
56,300
40,500
47,200
34,100
Drug Offenses
189,800
193,900
196,700
171,600
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
The 2004-2006 growth in violent crime arrest rates now appears to
have been a modest fluctuation in a relatively stable pattern.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Viewed over the long term, the rate of juvenile arrests for murder
between 2000 and 2009 should be described as relatively stable .
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile arrest rates for robbery are worrisome compared with the
low point of 2004, but the rate fell between 2008 and 2009.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Aggravated assault arrests among juveniles flattened out between
2004 and 2006, then continued to decline through 2009.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile arrest rates for forcible rape have been falling since 1991.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile arrest rates for the four offenses included in the Property
Crime Index increased after 2006, but dropped from 2008 to 2009.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Burglary arrest rates among juveniles may have started to stabilize
after nearly three decades of decline.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile arrest rates for larceny-theft began to grow after 2006, but
were relatively unchanged between 2008 and 2009.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Motor vehicle theft arrests among juveniles continued the stunning
rate of decline that started in the late 1980s.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Arson arrests among juveniles fell sharply from 2006 to 2009.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
After disturbing increases between 2002 and 2006, juvenile
arrests for weapon offenses returned to their 2002 level.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Juvenile drug arrests generally dropped after 1997, but arrest rates
in the 2000s were substantially higher than those of the 1980s.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Arrests by Age
Under Age 15 (Ages 10-14)
Juveniles
Ages 15-17
Ages 18-24
Adults
Age 25 and Older
Arrests of juveniles are often compared with those of adults, but it
is informative to break these age groups into four categories.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Viewed in this way, juveniles under age 18 appear to be responsible
for much of the 1985-1995 increases in violent crime.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
When arrests are divided into four age groups, it is easier to see
what really happened during the rise and fall of violent crime.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
The changing pattern of violent crime arrests involved juveniles
under age 18 and young adults ages 18 to 24.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
As was apparent in the changing rate of arrests, robbery shows a
different pattern, one which deserves more attention.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
The changes in robbery arrest rates are more pronounced among
15-17 year-olds than among 18-24 year-olds.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
Summary of National Trends
• Juvenile arrest rates are trending downward, according to the most
recent national data.
• After the historic decline in violent crime from 1995 through 2004,
arrest rates in some offenses grew slightly for one or two years.
• Juvenile arrest rates then generally began to fall again after 2006.
• When all four offenses in the Violent Crime Index are considered
together, arrest rates in 2009 were at their lowest point since 1980.
• The small increase in juvenile murder arrests after 2004 appears
to have stopped and murder arrests now appear to be stabilizing.
• The juvenile arrest rate for robbery grew sharply from 2004 to 2006,
but it too may have begun to stabilize, although at a level still higher
than the historic lows reached during the early 2000s.
• The rate of juvenile arrests for aggravated assault continued its
15-year decline, reaching a level not been seen since the mid 1980s.
• The juvenile arrest rate for weapon offenses also fell between 2006
and 2009, reaching the previous low point of 2002.
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net
For more information:
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
Executive Director
Research and Evaluation Center
John Jay College of Criminal Justice
City University of New York
555 West 57th Street
New York, NY 10019
(212) 237-8486
[email protected]
Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009.
Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm ).
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
www.jeffreybutts.net