Transcript Public Opinion - Politics, Politics, Politics

Public Opinion
Understand Political Attitudes and Behavior
Man, Politics & Government
• Man by his nature is a
political/social animal
• Hobbes argues that we
formed civil society to
avoid the fear and
conflict of the state of
nature
Freedom versus Order
• Abraham Maslow
– Hierarchy of Needs
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Biological/Physiological
Safety
Community/Belonging
Esteem
Self-Actualization
– Democracy arises after
all other needs met
– Disruption of basic
needs prevents
democratization
Freedom versus Order
• Erich Fromm
– Escape from Freedom (1941)
• Man fears the responsibility
that comes with freedom
• Accepts the certainty and
“protection” that is provided
by totalitarian leaders who
promise security, order and
prosperity
• May explain support for
Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Taliban, or
other totalitarian regimes or
cults
Freedom versus Order
• B.F. Skinner
– Free will and selfdetermination are an
illusion
– Behavior is controlled by
one’s environment
– Control the environment
and you control behavior
– Society shapes and
determines behavior
through a system of
rewards and punishment
– Walden Two is Skinner’s
view of a utopian society
Freedom versus Order
• Vaclav Havel
– Czech poet/playwright
• Largo Desolato
• The Power of the Powerless
– Citizens comply with
totalitarian regimes because
they fear punishment
– Yet, they pretended to be free
– 1980s and 1990s saw
revolutions in Poland and
Czechoslovakia
• Velvet Revolution in 1989
resulted in Havel’s election as
President of the new Czech
Republic
Freedom versus Order
• Natan Sharansky
– Soviet dissident along with
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn challenged
totalitarian rule in the Soviet Union
– Case for Democracy (2004)
• Free states and fear states
• Fear states have
– True believers
– Doublethinkers
– Dissidents
• Dissidents need support to challenge
government
• US foreign policy should promote the
expansion of democracy
• This is component of the Bush
Doctrine
– Arguably makes the case for
intervening in Iraq to topple
Saddam Hussein
American Struggle:
Freedom versus Order
• Freedom and Equality
– Our two most cherished values
• No class system to reinforce
inequality
• Minimal socialist movement
• Education reinforces values
• Order
– Demand for order increases in
times of stress (siege mentality)
• Patriot Act
• School Dress Codes
• Corporal Punishment
Application of Values
• Freedom
– Restrictions on Free Speech
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Communists in the 1950s
Anti-war speech in the 1960s
Nazi March in Skokie
Opposition to the War in Iraq
– Dixie Chicks
• Equality
– Equality under the law
• Racial Profiling
• Death Penalty
– Political Equality
• Disenfranchisement of voters
• Power of money in politics
– Economic Equality
• 40 million Americans live in poverty
• 45 million Americans lack health insurance
and millions of Americans are underinsured
Political Participation
and Public Opinion
• Social Scientists attempt to understand why we behave the
way we do
• Research/Experiments on political behavior
– Adorno and the F-Scale
– Milgram and Obedience
– Zimbardo and the Stanford Prison Guard Study
Understanding Attitudes and Behavior
• Attitudes may be viewed as
learned tendencies to evaluate
some object, person or issue
• Attitudes are the product of
beliefs and values
– Beliefs are what you believe to true
or false
– Values are what you believe to be
good or bad
• For example, If I asked your
opinion of Barack Obama
– Your brain calculates an attitude
based on your belief and value
system
• Studies suggest response is a
cognitive response based on
emotional framing
Selective Perception
• You screen information based on its compatibility with your belief and
value system
– A loyal Democrat will believe positive news stories concerning Barack Obama as well
as negative stories about John McCain or Sarah Palin
– Similarly, a loyal Republican will believe reports critical of Barack Obama and dismiss
stories critical of John McCain or Sarah Palin
• In fact, individuals will go so far as to watch only news programs that
reinforce their belief and value system
– Democrats watch MSNBC (Matthews, Olberman and Maddow)
– Republicans watch FOX News
Political Ideology
• Political Ideology is a cohesive set
of values and beliefs that form a
general philosophy about the role
of government
• In the U.S., we talk in terms of left
and right or liberal and
conservative
– Liberals support a strong national
government to protect the poor,
the elderly, children, the
environment, consumers and
workers
– Conservatives support a strong
national defense, a national
morality, deregulation, a small
national government regarding the
economy and support a shift in
power from the national
government to state governments
Public Opinion
• Public Opinion is the
aggregate of attitudes
about issues, events or
personalities
Political Socialization
• Political Socialization is the
induction of individuals into
the political culture through
the learning of the underlying
beliefs and values that the
political system is based on
• Individuals are “taught” these
values by agents of
socialization that include
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Family
Social Groups
Education
Prevailing Political Conditions
Government
Media
Family
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Provides the initial and strongest
orientation towards government
What we learn is influenced by differences
in family background
Party ID is formed at home
– Mom and Dad both Republican the child
probably Republican
– Mom and Dad both Democrat the child
probably Democrat
– Mom a Democrat and Dad a Republican the
child will probably be a Democrat or
Independent
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Corporal punishment at home is believed
to promote authoritarian personality
– Obedience
– Respect for Order
– Respect for Authority
Social Groups
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Social Groups
– Involuntary
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Race
Gender
– Voluntary
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Peer groups
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Political parties
Interest groups
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School
Work
Greenpeace
NOW
NAACP
LULAC
NRA
Christian Coalition
Group identity provides shared
experiences or “training” with regard
to values and beliefs
– Hitler mobilized the Hitler Youth
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Model German
Paramilitary Training
Social Groups
• Race
– Significant attitudinal differences between
whites and blacks (See Gallup Black/White
Survey)
– African Americans
• Liberal Values
– More support for government programs that
promote equality
– More likely to recognize discrimination
– Less likely to support the death penalty
– Less likely to support military action (i.e.,
Vietnam, Iraq)
• Conservative Values
– Less support for Gay Rights
– Less support for Abortion
– More support for school prayer
• Voting Trends
– Voted Republican from 1865 to 1960s
– Voted Democrat (90-98%) since 1964
– Republicans are attempting to use social issues
(i.e., gay rights) to drive a wedge between
African Americans and Democrats
Social Groups
• Age
– Older Americans generally
more conservative on social
issues such as abortion and
gay rights plus they more
likely to vote and engage in
politics
– Younger Americans (under
the age of 30) are generally
more liberal on social issues,
but are less likely to vote or
engage in political action
• This trend may be changing
with the nomination of Barack
Obama
• Young voters were very active
in the primaries and caucuses
Social Groups
• Religion
– Protestants (50%)
• Largest segment of the population
• Large number of denominations
• Evangelicals are very conservative and vote
Republican
– Southern Baptists
– Christian Coalition
– Moral Majority
– Catholics (25%)
• Have identified with the Democrat party since
the mid to late 1800s
– Gangs of New York
– Irish Democrats
• Republicans are trying to use social issues
(abortion, gay rights) to drive a wedge or
create a cleavage issue that will bring Catholics
to the Republicans
– Jews
• Traditionally aligned with the Democrats on
social issues
Social Groups
• Gender
– Gender Gap refers to the differences
between the political behavior between
men and women
• Men are slightly more likely to vote Republican
(55% to 45%) based on “force” issues
– Guns
– War
– Crime
• Women are slightly more likely to vote
Democrat (55% to 45%) based on compassion
issues
– Social issues
– Protection of children, the poor and the
environment
– However, gender is not a very good
predictor as other variables must be
considered
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Income
Education
Religion
Community
Social Groups
• Income
– Low Income voters generally
support Democratic Party
Candidates
– Middle Income voters are
mixed and other variables
must be considered to predict
voting behavior
– Upper Income voters
generally support Republican
Party Candidates
– Republicans used wedge
issues to pull Southern White
voters from Democratic Party
beginning in 1980 (Reagan)
turning the South Red
Social Groups
• Region
– Northeast is Blue
– South is Red
• Blue from 1865-1980
• Red since Reagan
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Lower Midwest is Red
Upper Midwest is Blue
West is Red
Far West is Blue
• Community
– Urban is Blue
– Suburban is Red
– Rural is Red
Education (K-12)
• Promotes common set of civic values
• K-12 supports authoritarian values
– Discipline
– Obedience
– Conformity
Education (College)
• College promotes democratic
values
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Free Speech
Forum for Ideas
Tolerance
Promotes political participation
• Knowledge of the System
• Knowledge about Issues
• Knowledge about Candidates
Political Conditions and History
• Events during
maturation shape view
of government
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Great Depression
World War II
Vietnam War
9/11
Government
• Governments promote
support for the system
– Nationalism is the belief that
a people who occupy the
same territory share
something that makes them
superior to others
• Nazi Germany was nationalism
run amuck
– Nationalism promoted
• History and Myths
• Movies
• Sporting Events
– Olympics
– World Cup
– Ryder Cup
Measuring Public Opinion
• George Gallup believe
polling could produce
truer democracy
• Polls now used by
politicians, media,
interest groups to
demonstrate support
for issues or candidates
Measuring Public Opinion
• Designing a Survey
– Identify population
– Take random sample
• Sample Size (N) should be between
1000 and 1500
• Should be representative of general
population
• Types of Surveys
– Straw Polls have respondents call
to voice opinion
– Stratified Sample uses census data
for selected geographic areas to
establish representative sample
• Used for National Polls and Exit Polls
• In 2004, undersampling of
Republican voters resulted in the
media making an incorrect prediction
that Kerry was ahead on election day
Measuring Public Opinion
• Methods
– In Person
• Costly
• Interviewer influence
– Mail
• Low response rate
• Unable to clarify
– Telephone
• Most Common
• Number of Problems
– Homes without phones
– Answering machines or
Caller ID
– Refusal to answer
– Multiple household
members
Measuring Public Opinion
• Validity and Reliability
– Does it measure what we
think it is measuring
– Can it be reproduced over
time
• Problems
– Poor question format
– Faulty ordering of
questions
– Vocabulary bias
– Ambiguity
– Limited response choices
Measuring Public Opinion
• Margin of Error
– Product of the sample size
– With an N of 1000 to 1500
the margin of error will be
+/- 3
– For example, poll shows
Obama ahead 55% to 45%
with a margin of error of 3
• The support for Obama is
really between 58 and 52%
• The support for McCain is
really between 48 and 42%
Measuring Public Opinion
• Halo Effect
– Respondents claim to have
voted when in reality they did
not because it is the socially
expected answer
– Respondents give the social
expected answer regarding
racial, gender, or policy issues
• Leads to overestimation of
support for women’s issues
amongst men
• Leads to overestimation of
support for Obama amongst
whites
• Leads to overestimation of
support for regulation of
pornography
• Leads to underestimation of
racism
Measuring Public Opinion
• Salient Issues
– Issues that the
respondent really care
about
• Abortion
• Bailout
• Health Care
– Responses are more
stable on salient issues
than those of little
interest to the
respondent
Measuring Public Opinion
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Push Poll is a survey designed to push
a respondent to a given position
rather than measure attitudes
Provides information that forces
respondent to reconsider position
– In 2000, survey done in South Carolina
suggested that John McCain had a black
child
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In fact, the child was adopted from an
orphanage run my Mother Theresa
The statement was designed to incite
racial attitudes
– In 2008, statements that Obama is
Muslim or that he does not wear a flag
pin
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Designed to incite post 9/11 attitudes
amongst voters
Push polls are considered unethical
Measuring Public Opinion
• Bandwagon Effect is the
tendency for voters to
support the winning
candidate
• Underdog Effect is the
tendency for voters to
support the challenger
– George W Bush in 2004
– Hillary Clinton in NH 2008