Transcript PPT Slides --February 3 - Peace and Conflict Studies

PACS 2500
Introduction to
Peace and Conflict Studies
Guy Burgess
Co-Director
Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado
UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635
[email protected]
Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess
Have/Have-Not Complexity
Estimate the Percentage of
“Explained Variance” associated
with each factor.
Systemic Problems
•
Prison Industrial Complex
•
Poverty Capitalism
•
Cheating Advantages
•
Automation
•
Technological Advance
•
Kludgeocracy
•
Employer's Market (Fear
Economy)
•
Problems at the Top
•
Natural Selection
•
New Class Differences
•
Superstar Effect
•
Money Addiction
•
Boundless Greed Rationalization
•
Zero-Sum Thinking
•
Concentration of Wealth
•
Discrimination
Problems at the Bottom
•
Family Disintegration
Lack of Compassion
•
Withdrawal from the Workforce
•
Underperforming Schools
•
Low Educational Expectations
•
Tax Structure
•
Scarcity Thinking
•
Red Tape Regulations
•
Crime
Groups
Front
Door
1
3
5
Door
2
4
6
Amnesty International
http://act.amnestyusa.org/eaaction/action?ea.client.id=1839&ea.campaign.id=34661&ea.tracking.id=ActivismLevels_UrgentActionNetwork~Count
ry_SaudiArabia~MessagingCategory_CensorshipandFreeSpeech~MessagingCategory_PrisonersandPeopleatRiskPrisonersofConscience
Religion Partisanship
http://www.pewresearch.org/facttank/2015/01/29/the-political-divide-onviews-toward-muslims-and-islam/
Secularists
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/opinion/david-brooks-building-better-secularists.html?_r=0
Transforming Capitalism
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/opinion/david-brooks-how-to-leave-a-mark.html
Population Map
https://twitter.com/Sida/status/562230360868937729/photo/1
Conflicts and Disputes
 Conflicts – underlying, long-running, tensions
between the parties based on differing
interests with respect to distributional issues,
moral questions, status, and identity.
 Disputes – episodes within the context of the
larger conflict that may be resolved by
agreement or various types of legal, political,
military or other power contests.
Conflicts and Disputes
The Football Analogy
Disputes are the plays and conflict is the game
with special rules: 1) the game never ends, and
2) the goal is to keep the ball at your opponents end
of the field.
Abortion Dispute History
A partial list of major abortion-related disputes in the United States and
associated shift in aggregate social policies.
Pro-Choice
Pro-Life
Abortion prohibition laws
Abortion legalization efforts (state-level)
Roe v. Wade
GOP decision to focus on the abortion issue
Pro-Choice interest group organization
Pro-Life interest organization
Pro-Life Supreme Court appointments
Pro-Choice Supreme Court appointments
Threats abortion providers
State-level abortion restriction legislation
Many other disputes in various arenas
Climate Change Dispute History
More Favorable to
Environmental Interests
More Favorable to
Pro-Fossil Interests
Kyoto Protocol – 1997
IPCC Gore Nobel Prize – 2007
Copenhagen Conference – 2009
US Stimulus/Alternative Energy – 2009
Climategate Controversy – 2009+
CAFE Agreement – Summer 2011
?
Keystone XL Pipeline Permits – 2013 ?
Conflicts and Disputes
 The underlying conflict is intractable and
cannot be resolved in the near (or even long)
term.
 Dispute episodes within the context of that
conflict are, however, routinely resolved by
power contests (or, sometimes, agreement).
 The cumulative effect of these resolved
disputes determines the “outcome” of the
larger conflict for the moment.
 The underlying conflict is only “resolved”
when there is no significant challenge to the
prevailing situation (outcome) for an
extended.
Conflict Stages (Resolution Model)
Conflict Stages (Victory Model)
Defeat of
One Side
-------------------------Repression and Latent
Hostility
----------------------------------
Conflict as a Breaking Wave
You have to deal with all stages simultaneously.
Conflict Phases
Copyright 2003 © by Guy and Heidi Burgess
Ripeness
Death
And
Destruction
Ripeness / Hurting Stalemate
How Much Violence Have You Prevented?
Life History of a Conflict
Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of
Peace Press, 1996), p. 38.
Ripeness as Time Appropriate Intervention
1 2
3
4
1
Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of
Peace Press, 1996), p. 38.
Moral
(Culture-based)
Conflict
Framing – Things Don't Make Sense...
Unless Viewed from the Right Angle
Outerbridge’s Law
< Outerbridge Crossing Named for Mayor Outerbridge
When the answer is obvious and wrong!
W.F. Ogburn / Cultural Lag
Culture Matters
It’s about much
more than tastes in
food!
Culture and Conflict
Finger Jestures
Soles of Your Shoes
Japanese Business Cards
CAOCL
War and Anthropology
http://www.counterpunc
h.org/2009/12/01/huma
n-terrain-systemsanthropologists-and-thewar-in-afghanistan/
Cross-Cultural Conflict Stories




In your travels (and in your community)
what cultural misunderstandings have
you encountered?
Of these, which one's had the potential to
cause or contribute to serious conflict?
How did you handle the situation?
How should you have handled the
situation?
1905 Revolutionary Ideas


Einstein – Relativity
Sumner – Folkways
Cultural Differences
Within group
differences
Between group differences
Within group
differences
Nature Vs. Nurture
Culture vs. Personality
Culture


High Context - uses implied meanings
which arise from the setting
Low Context - focuses on literal
meanings of words, independent of
setting
Note: this distinction does not describe a dichotomy, but
rather poles on a continuum.
Kurt Lewin Resolving Social Conflicts
Americans
Europeans
"There is nothing so practical as a good theory"
Culture



Inner-directed cultures
see virtue in individual
achievements, whereas
Outer-directed
cultures see virtue in
relationships and
process
Tradition-direct
cultures see virtue in
the way that things have
always been done
Fate and Personal Responsibility

Personal responsibility


Extent to which we feel ourselves to be the
masters of our lives
Fate

Extent to which we see ourselves as subject
to things outside our control
Perception of Time and Space

Monochronic


Polychronic


Linear quantitative time, most
common in the northern and
western hemispheres -- “time
is money”
Cyclical time w/ unraveling
and unlimited continuity, most
common in southern and
eastern hemispheres
Space

Differences in comfortable
distance between people
Culture
Some values that vary cross-culturally concern:
 Power – its appropriate distribution and source
 Achievement – what it consists of
 Hedonism (Fun) – what it is and how
important it is
 Stimulation – what its acceptable forms are
 Self-direction – degree to which this is
possible and desirable
Culture
Other values that vary cross-culturally include:
 Universalism/Particularism – degree to
which things are seen as connected/seperated
 Benevolence – its importance
 Traditions – what they are and their
importance
 Confirmation – its importance and sanctions
to enforce it
 Security – the forms it takes
Culture


Collectivists see group allegiances most
important
Individualists see themselves as
separate individuals
What is the fundamental social unit?
Collectivist vs. Individualist

Republicans

Collective



Individualistic



Military traditions
National interests / patriotism
Free market
Freedom
Democrats

Collective



“It takes a village”
“Socialized ___________”
Individualistic

Civil rights
Tolerance / Coexistence
Liberals Vs. Conservatives
Boulder, Another One Party Town
Conservative Scholar
Demise of Local Political Reporting
Political Selection
 Political selection
 “Survival of the fittest”
 Survival of the most
powerful
 If one side does it the
other has to do it
 Since they all do it, it’s a
non issue
 Folks who don’t do it, you
never hear from
Charles Darwin
Hidden Persuaders II
http://www.economist.com/node/21530076
Wag the Dog
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNo0BicRM8k
Higman / Lasswell Propaganda I
Stimulae: Events, Ads, Speeches
Attitudes
Individual Thought Processes
Opinions: Votes, Support
Higman / Lasswell Education II
Stimulae: Events, Ads, Speeches
Attitudes
Individual Thought Processes
Opinions: Votes,
Support
Higman / Lasswell Propaganda III
Stimulae: Events, Ads, Speeches
Attitudes
Individual Thought Processes
Opinions: Votes, Support
Higman / Lasswell Propaganda IV
Stimulae: Events,
Ads, Speeches
Attitudes
Individual Thought Processes
X
Opinions: Votes,
Support
Focus Groups
Mark Udall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_V4POLXJV8
Cory Gardner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjSgV_18EIw
Mark Udall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaTojwO1eHc
Cory Gardner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT6KEv2HK-Q
FactCheck.org
Al Frakin
True,
False,
or
Weasel
Game
If the Facts Aren’t on Your Side,
Attack the Wonks / Fact Checkers
Or, get your
own fact
checker
“We’re not going to let our campaign be
dictated by fact-checkers”
How do you encourage and support quality fact
checking?
Campaign Finance
http://www.propublica.or
g/article/campaignfinance-free-for-all-howwe-got-to-this-point
Koch Brothers
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/us/politics/kochs-plan-to-spend900-million-on-2016-campaign.html
Guiding Principle: Compassion
Karen Armstrong
“That which is hurtful to you, do not do to others.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCG4qryy1Dg
John Stewart
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpUcD9WEC4w