Transcript Post-Genomics and the Future of Human Societies: A Foresight

Post-Genomics and the
Future of Human Societies: a
Foresight Approach
Excerpts from “DNA Analysis for Human Health in the PostGenomic Era - An APEC-wide Technology Foresight Study
24 January 2004
Bangkok, Thailand
Dr. Nares Damrongchai
Policy Researcher
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
National Science and Technology Development Agency, Thailand
1
Background
April 2003, Human Genome Project officially declared
complete.
 But...
Reaping the rewards and reducing the dangers of
technological advances demands careful consideration
of 2 dimensions. First, how various socio-economic
environments lead to differences in the pace and
direction of technological innovation and diffusion, and
second, what the implications are of the uses and spread
of new technologies for economy and society
OECD 1998 21st Century Technologies
2
Integration of Post-Genomics into the Society
•Intellectual property
protection
•Transparency
•International standards
•Capital markets
•Legal and regulatory
PUBLIC
infrastructure ensures
benefit to individuals and
POLICY
society
Translation
Human
populations
and societies
PostGenomics
Research
Development
of Products
and Services
•Development of new
technologies
•Basic research at public
and private academic
institutions
•Education and training
Healthcare
System
•Clinical trial
•Insurers
•Manufacturing and
marketing or
distribution of
products and services
•Pharmacies
•Hospitals
•Medical
professionals
PRIVATE
SECTOR
Adapted from David W. Beier, Life Sciences Innovation Value Chain, 2003. 3
APEC-wide Foresight Study on
“DNA Analysis for Human Health
in the Post-Genomic Era”
Proposing Economy: Thailand
Co-sponsors: Canada; Japan;
Philippines; Chinese Taipei and USA
Period: mid 2002 to 2003
4
Project Roadmap
2002
NOV
Overview
Paper
2003
APR
MAY
AUG
Foresight
Support
And
Organization
Position Papers
Core Group Meeting
3-4 APR, BKK
Issues Papers
Web-based
National Surveys
APEC-wide Meeting
in Bangkok
ISTWG Meeting
Preliminary findings
2004
JAN
PostForesight
APEC Ministerial
Meeting, mid OCT
Final Report,
DEC 2003
5
Technological Developments and
New Research Approaches in “PostGenomics” Era
SNPs Analysis
Microarray
Bioinformatics
Proteomics
Pharmacogenomics
Rational Drug Design
Gene Therapy
Population Genomics and Linkage Studies
Genetic Profiling
6
CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region
The success and failure of scientific and
technology promises. This also includes the
speed and cost involved in the development
and application of the technology.
7
CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region
Social influence. Each society may have
similar or different attitudes based on social,
ethnic, religion backgrounds as well as the
interpretation of human right and human
dignity issues. This depends on the
structure and mechanism to educate the
public, the open discussion and the
mobilization of public attitudes.
8
CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region
The effects or perception of impacts of
genomics to societies and the environment.
This is a combination of the benefit, risk,
adverse effect, past-experience of the
societies, cost and accessibility.
9
CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region
Regulation of genomic
research and their
applications. These
regulations can be based on
safety, economic, or ethical
reasons. For example,
embryonic stem cells are
regulated on the research
end, and cloning on the
application end.
10
CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region
The demand of the
genomics-related health
products. This is related
to the success and the
varieties of products (risk
screening, diagnostics,
intervention or
therapeutic tools as the
results of genomic
research).
CC:
11
CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region
The genomics related business involvement.
This include public policy to promote
investment in genomics and the different
business environment in each economy.
12
CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region
Intellectual property management. In terms
of protection of innovation and
development as well as the accessibility and
distribution of knowledge.
13
“Uncertainties”
A
B
C
A clear enough future
Alternate futures
?
A range of futures
True ambiguity
14
“Scenarios”
strategy
prosperity
strategy
Scenario 1
strategy
trends
Scenario 2
strategy
2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551
crisis
Scenario 3
strategy
strategy
15
“Scenario building”
“Presenting the draft”
16
“We discovered
the secret of life"