Transcript 7 Measuring the RAS model

Receive-Accept-Sample Model
an information-processing model
GV917
How do Citizens acquire information and
convert it into public opinion?
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Two Definitions:
1.
Considerations: any reason that might induce an individual to decide a
political issue one way or the other. Considerations, thus, are a
compound of cognition and affect—that is, a belief concerning an object
and an evaluation of the belief.
2.
Political messages:
a.
b.
Persuasive messages: arguments or images providing a reason for
taking a position or point of view; if accepted by an individual, they
become considerations.
Cueing messages: consist of ‘contextual information’ about the
ideological or partisan implications of a persuasive message. They
enable citizens to perceive relationships between the persuasive
messages they receive and their political dispositions, which in turn
permits them to respond critically to the persuasive messages.
Axioms of RAS Model
A1. Reception Axiom. The greater a person’s level of cognitive
engagement with an issue, the more likely he or she is to be
exposed to and comprehend—in a word, to receive—political
messages concerning that issue.
A2. Resistance Axiom. People tend to resist arguments that are
inconsistent with their political predispositions, but they do so
only to the extent that they possess the contextual information
necessary to perceive a relationship between the message and
their predispositions.
A3. Accessibility Axiom. The more recently a consideration has
been called to mind or thought about, the less time it takes to
retrieve that consideration or related considerations from memory
and bring them to the top of the head for use.
A4. Response Axiom. Individuals answer survey questions by
averaging across the considerations that are immediately salient
or accessible to them.
“True attitudes” vs “Opinion statements”
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The survey responses that people make within the
proposed model may reasonably be described as
attitudes or opinions, in that they represent people’s
true feelings at the moment of answering a given
survey question; they could not, however, be
described as “true attitudes,” in the technical sense of
the term, because survey responses are not assumed
to represent anything more than a single aspect of
people’s feelings toward a given attitude object.
Opinion statements, as conceived in this model, are
the outcome of a process in which people receive new
information, decide whether to accept it, and then
sample at the moment of answering questions.
Measuring ‘Considerations’ – The 2005
Pre and Post Election Surveys for BES
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What do you think is the most important
problem facing the country at the present
time?
Please write in:
___________________________________
___________________________________
___________________________________
___________________________________
The Reception Axiom
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Many issues or considerations are salient to the
public at any one time
The Reception Axiom means that people will pay
attention to new information about the issue they
think is most important to them during an election
campaign
This new information may or may not change their
minds, but the issue should still remain salient to
them
So a salient issue at the start of an election
campaign should still be salient at the end – But is
it?
Most Important Issue in the Pre-election
BES survey in 2005
aq2 Most Important Issue
Vali d
1 Asylum seekers
2 Britain s m embers hip
of the European Mon
3 Britain s relations with
the European Un
4 Law and order
5 Education
6 Environm ent
7 National Health Servi ce
8 Inflation, Prices
generall y
9 Public transport
10 Taxation
11 State of the econom y
12 Unemploym ent
13 My s tandard of l ivi ng
14 Price of petrol
15 War in Iraq
16 War agai ns t terroris m
17 Other (WRITE IN)
88 There are no
im portant iss ues
99 Don't know
Total
Frequency
552
Percent
18.6
Vali d Percent
18.6
Cum ulative
Percent
18.6
34
1.1
1.1
19.8
27
.9
.9
20.7
265
196
48
433
8.9
6.6
1.6
14.6
8.9
6.6
1.6
14.6
29.6
36.3
37.9
52.5
23
.8
.8
53.3
3
57
99
58
13
5
208
161
671
.1
1.9
3.3
2.0
.4
.2
7.0
5.4
22.7
.1
1.9
3.3
2.0
.4
.2
7.0
5.4
22.7
53.4
55.3
58.6
60.6
61.0
61.2
68.2
73.6
96.3
60
2.0
2.0
98.3
49
2959
1.7
100.0
1.7
100.0
100.0
Six Most Salient Issues in the Pre-election
Survey in 2005
Pre-election Issue Salience
Valid
Mis sing
Total
1.00 Immigration
2.00 Europe
3.00 Law & order
4.00 Education
5.00 NHS
6.00 Economy
Total
System
Frequency
552
60
265
196
433
197
1703
1256
2959
Percent
18.6
2.0
8.9
6.6
14.6
6.7
57.5
42.5
100.0
Valid Percent
32.4
3.5
15.5
11.5
25.4
11.6
100.0
Cumulative
Percent
32.4
35.9
51.5
63.0
88.4
100.0
Most Important Issue in the Post-election
BES survey in 2005
bq2a Most Important Issue Facing Country
Vali d
Mis sing
Total
1 Asylum seekers
2 Britain s m embers hip
of the European Mon
3 Britain s relations with
the European Un
4 Law and order
5 Education
6 Environm ent
7 National Health Servi ce
8 Inflation, Prices
generall y
9 Public transport
10 Taxation
11 State of the econom y
12 Unemploym ent
13 My s tandard of l ivi ng
14 Price of petrol
15 War in Iraq
16 War agai ns t terroris m
17 Other (WRITE IN)
18 Im m igration/People
com ing to Britain
88 There are no
im portant iss ues
Total
98 Refused
99 Don't know
Total
Frequency
213
Percent
7.2
Vali d Percent
7.3
Cum ulative
Percent
7.3
84
2.8
2.9
10.2
99
3.4
3.4
13.7
347
169
28
476
11.7
5.7
1.0
16.1
12.0
5.8
1.0
16.4
25.6
31.5
32.4
48.9
28
1.0
1.0
49.8
4
49
192
49
25
16
141
58
484
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1.7
6.5
1.7
.9
.5
4.8
2.0
16.4
.1
1.7
6.6
1.7
.9
.6
4.9
2.0
16.7
50.0
51.7
58.3
60.0
60.9
61.4
66.3
68.3
85.0
382
12.9
13.2
98.1
54
1.8
1.9
100.0
2897
1
61
62
2959
97.9
.0
2.1
2.1
100.0
100.0
The same six issues in the Post-Election
Survey
Post-Election Issue Salience
Valid
Mis sing
Total
1.00 Immigration
2.00 Europe
3.00 Law & order
4.00 Education
5.00 NHS
6.00 Economy
Total
System
Frequency
594
183
347
169
476
269
2038
921
2959
Percent
20.1
6.2
11.7
5.7
16.1
9.1
68.9
31.1
100.0
Valid Percent
29.2
9.0
17.0
8.3
23.3
13.2
100.0
Cumulative
Percent
29.2
38.1
55.2
63.4
86.8
100.0
Changes in Issue Priorities, Pre and Post
Election Surveys
Pre-Election versus Post-Election
% within preissues
preissues
Total
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Immigration
Europe
Law & order
Education
NHS
Economy
1.00
Immigration
64.7%
10.3%
12.4%
9.3%
14.8%
12.1%
30.5%
2.00 Europe
5.1%
46.2%
5.7%
11.2%
4.8%
7.1%
7.2%
postissues
3.00 Law
4.00
& order
Education
10.2%
2.1%
7.7%
5.1%
57.6%
5.7%
7.5%
49.7%
11.7%
6.6%
8.6%
2.9%
17.3%
9.6%
5.00 NHS
13.6%
10.3%
10.5%
14.9%
55.8%
12.9%
23.9%
6.00
Economy
4.3%
20.5%
8.1%
7.5%
6.3%
56.4%
11.5%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
The Implications for the Reception Axiom
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55 per cent of people who chose one of the top six salient issues in
the pre-election survey chose the same issue in the post-election
survey
This does not measure all the ‘considerations’ in people’s minds –
only the most important one.
But it shows how the saliency of considerations can vary quite a lot
over time – particularly during an election campaign
The Reception Axiom suggests that an issue should remain salient
– but there is a lot of change in perceptions of saliency
We don’t know from this if the issue ceases to be salient for the 45
per cent who change their minds, but clearly receptivity can change
as the issue priorities change
But the top two salient issues in the pre election survey (immigration
and the NHS) showed a lot more stability than the bottom two
(Education and Europe) – saliency promotes stability.
The Resistance Axiom
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People will resist arguments that are inconsistent with their
predispositions – but only if they think the message is relevant to
their considerations
As we have seen in the 2005 election immigration and asylum
seeking were the most important issues both before and after the
election
If we focus on respondents who thought immigration and asylum
seeking was the most important issue in the pre-election survey,
then the Labour partisans among them should be less critical of
the government on this issue compared with others
Why? Because they are more predisposed to support ‘their’
government – they will resist criticism of it.
Attitudes to Government Performance on Asylum
Seekers for those who thought the issue most salient in
the Pre-election Survey
aq4c Government Ha ndl e Asylum Seekers
Valid
Missing
Total
Frequency
2.00 Fairly well
19
3.00 Neither
28
4.00 Fairly badly
120
5.00 Very badly
385
Total
552
9.00 Don't know
0
552
Percent
3.4
5.0
21.8
69.8
100.0
.0
100.0
Valid Perc ent
3.4
5.0
21.8
69.9
100.0
Cumulative
Percent
3.4
8.4
30.1
100.0
How Partisanship influences Attitudes to
Asylum Seeking in 2005
Government Handling Asylum Seekers and Immigration by Labour
Partisanship
% within labpid
aq4c Government
Handle Asylum
Seekers
Total
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Fairly well
Neither
Fairly badly
Very badly
labpid
.00 Not
1.00 Labour
Labour
Identifier
2.7%
5.3%
2.5%
15.0%
20.3%
27.4%
74.5%
52.2%
100.0%
100.0%
Total
3.3%
5.1%
21.7%
69.9%
100.0%
Implications for the Resistance Axiom
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The people who attach great importance to
immigration/asylum-seeking do so because
they are worried about it, which makes them
critical of the government
However, a predisposition to support the
government as measured by Labour
partisanship mitigates the criticisms quite a
bit.
The Accessibility Axiom
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Recent ‘top of the head’ information should be very
important, particularly for people who are not very
interested in politics and so have few considerations
in their minds
During the 2005 election the Conservatives made a
lot of the immigration issue – so Conservative
partisans who weren’t that interested in the election
campaign should have been quick to cite
immigration as a key issue because it was at the
‘top of their heads’
How interested and uninterested Conservatives Reacted
to Immigration in the 2005 Election Campaign
Note: The Figures measure the percentages who were stable in their selection of immigration as the most important
issue before and after the election
80
70
60
50
Conservatives
Non-Conservatives
40
30
20
10
0
Interested
Not Interested
Implications for the Accessibility Axiom
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For those interested in politics both Conservatives and nonConservatives were equally stable in their choice of immigration
as the most important issue in the pre and post surveys (58%
and 57%)
However, for those not interested in politics Conservatives were
significantly more stable in their choice of immigration (76%) than
non-Conservatives (70%) though both were more likely to cite
the issue than the interested
Why? Because the uninterested Conservatives used the most
recent ‘top of the head’ considerations when answering the
question by following their party’s lead
Interested Conservatives were less likely to do this because they
had more considerations in their minds when responding to the
question.
The Response Axiom
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Individuals average across the considerations they
have in mind when responding to questions
If people have lots of considerations in their minds
because they are interested in politics and in the
election, then their responses should be relatively
stable – they are averaging across a lot of
information – and it is harder to change many bits of
information all at once
If people have few considerations in their minds
because they are not interested in politics then their
responses should be relatively unstable – they are
averaging across very few bits of information and so
their positions can easily change.
Response Stability and Interest in the
Election
Stability of Issues over Time by Interest in Politics
% within mipre
interes t
1.00 interested
2.00 not interes ted
Most important
iss ue in the
pre-election
survey
Total
Most important
iss ue in the
pre-election
survey
Total
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Immigration
Europe
Law & Order
Education
NHS
Economy
Immigration
Europe
Law & Order
Education
NHS
Economy
1.00
Immigration
57.6%
Most Important Issue in the Post-Election Survey
3.00 Law
4.00
2.00 Europe
& Order
Education
5.00 NHS
6.00
Economy
43.3%
61.5%
51.7%
55.8%
24.3%
70.9%
8.6%
19.6%
10.6%
23.3%
59.4%
14.0%
55.6%
45.6%
43.6%
51.8%
40.5%
4.4%
12.7%
6.9%
23.8%
52.5%
11.7%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Implications for the Response Axiom
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Opinions are more stable among those interested in
politics for Law & Order, Education, NHS and the
Economy than opinions for those not interested in
politics
But opinions are less stable among those interested
in politics for Immigration and Europe
As the discussion of the Accessibility Axiom showed
the latter could be explained by the campaign – the
Conservatives concentrated on immigration in
particular but were also Euro-sceptic and so the
issue remained salient for those not interested in
politics
What Difference Does Engagement Make?
The AV Referendum of 2011
The AV Referendum 2011
The Likelihood of Voting in the Referendum
The Likelihood of Voting in the Referendum
by Levels of Interest
Conclusions
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The different axioms in the RAS model lead to
different predictions about how people will
process and use information depending on their
predispositions and the context in which it
appears
An election campaign makes politics salient for
most people since they pay attention to it
But some are not interested in the election and
they react differently to new information in
comparison with those who are interested.
Levels of Interest in the AV Referendum of 2011
varied a lot and these had big effects on who
was likely to vote