Transcript Disaster Preparedness: Concepts, Guidance, & Research

Perspectives on Risk Perception
Kathleen Tierney
Natural Hazards Center
University of Colorado at Boulder
Was*IS Workshop
July 18, 2007
Topics for Discussion
• Myths and misconceptions about risk
perception and assessment
• Factors affecting perceptions of risk
During “normal,” non-crisis times
During emergencies
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Myths and Misconceptions Regarding
Risk Perception and Assessment
• Scientists and experts really
understand risk better than laypeople
• Lay perceptions of risk are erroneous
and irrational
• Risk is a property inherent in things
and processes (nuclear power,
weather events, etc.)
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Myths and Misconceptions
• Since risks can be compared in terms
of their likelihood, members of the
public are misguided, irrational, and
worried about the wrong things, AKA,
“Your chances of being struck by
lightning are 5,000 times more likely
than _____________ “
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Alternative Ways of Viewing the Issue
• Risk is a social construct; both experts and
the public act on the basis of sociallyconstructed claims, perceptions and
assessments of risk
• Rather than being inherent in things and
processes; risk is ultimately the
consequence of societal and institutional
dynamics. Thus risk is socially created (for
more, see Tierney, “Toward a critical
sociology of risk,” “From the margins to the
mainstream? Disaster research at the
crossroads”)
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Alternative Ways of Viewing the Issue
• Because risks are socially
constructed—that is, produced
through social behavior, activities,
and processes—risk comparisons are
inherently invalid
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:
Perceptions as Affected by
• Perceived properties of different risks (Slovic
et al., “Rating the risks”)
• Mental models of risk and danger: How and
why do we think we are we at risk?
(Fischhoff, Morgan, and others)
• Cognitive heuristics: availability, anchoring,
etc. (Slovic, Kunreuther, etc.)
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:
Perceptions as Affected by
• Personality characteristics and world
views:
Fatalism
Locus of control
Religiosity
Risk avoidance, aversion
Invincibility: “It won’t happen to me”
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:
Perceptions as Affected by
• Social relationships and network ties
• Information-seeking and information sources
• Socioeconomic characteristics of individuals
and groups
Gender
Race and ethnicity
Social class
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:
Perceptions as Affected by
• Attitudes regarding the institutions that
manage risk (Freudenburg and
“recreancy”; “the white male effect”)
• Emotions (recent work by Slovic)
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:
Perceptions as Affected by
• Broader social processes:
Claimsmaking and social problem
construction: interest groups, social
movements, opinion leaders,
lawmakers
Issue attention cycles (Downs, “Up
and down with ecology”)
Media coverage and agenda-setting:
the “rhetoric of risk”
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Factors Affecting Risk Perception
in Crisis Contexts
• Factors discussed earlier remain in
play, influence both perceptions and
behaviors during crisis events
• Additional factors come into play in
crisis-specific contexts
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Crisis-Specific Factors
•
•
•
•
•
Normalcy bias
Prior experiences—or lack thereof
Environmental cues—or lack thereof
Milling and information-seeking
Properties of crisis-related messages:
clarity, specificity, consistency,
certainty/uncertainty
• Properties of crisis-related message sources:
trust vs. mistrust, credibility, believability, etc.
• Organizational, institutional responses
www.colorado.edu/hazards
Exercise: Let’s discuss
• Avian flu
• Climate change
• Hurricane Katrina warning, evacuation
• Color-coded terrorism warnings
• Nuclear-related risks
www.colorado.edu/hazards