Transcript POLI 209: Analyzing Public Opinion

Attitude Stability and
Attitude Change
April 18, 2011
Objectives
By the end of this meeting, you should be able
to:
a) Describe the main theories of individual
attitude change.
b) Argue whether or not public opinion is
sufficiently informed or thought-out to
make important choices.
c) Discuss the contrast in aggregate and
individual-level opinion stability.
Think About in Groups
a) How much attention should the average
individual pay attention to politics?
b) What does survey research show about
most individuals and their level of
political sophistication?
The Lack of Awareness
a) “In late 1986…when George Bush was halfway
into his second term as vice-president of the
United States, 24 percent of the general public
either failed to recognize his name or could not
say what office he held.
b) People at this level of inattentiveness can have
only the haziest idea of the policy alternatives
about which pollsters regularly ask them to state
opinions, and such ideas as they do have must
often be relatively innocent of the effects of elite
discourse” (Zaller 1992, 16).
Micro Level Opinion
a) 1960: The American Voter (Campbell,
Converse, Miller, & Stokes)
b) Based on data from 1956 found that public
broke down roughly into:
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12% Ideologues
42% Group Benefit
24% Nature of the Times
22% No issue content
Micro Level Opinion
a) Most voters are unable to name their
elected representatives or the positions
that national political figures hold
b) Voters are also unable to identify other
countries even those that have been
extensively covered in the media
Knowledge and Opinions
a) While American voters are generally poorly
informed, differences in information levels are
related to certain differences in opinions
b) Generally, better informed voters are more likely
to favor more liberal attitudes on social and
foreign policy issues than less well informed
voters.
c) On the other hand, less well informed voters are
more likely to favor a more liberal attitudes
towards government spending than the more
well informed.
Depth of Opinions
a) Generally opinions are not deeply held
within the public
b)
1964: The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics
(Converse) found:
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Lack of opinion “constraint”
a) Low association (tau) between individuals’
attitudes toward similar issues (e.g., employment,
education, federal housing).
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Opinion “instability”
a) For some issues, only 20% of the public have stable
attitudes. The rest, “non attitudes”
b) Panel Study
Does ideological
inconsistency
imply
irrationality?
Depth of Opinions
a) Partisanship is by far the most stable
opinion/attitude, but it can be thought of
as more of a personal identifier
b) Many people hold strong opinions on a
small number of issues
c) Abortion is one of the most stable attitudes
d) Experiments where people are exposed to
counterarguments frequently found
changes in opinions
Depth of Opinions
a) Converse is known for positing the idea of
non-attitudes (sometimes referred to as a
top of the head response)
b) Other explanations for response
instability:
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Measurement error
Response probability
c) Which of these is most troubling for
democracy?
The Problem of Ideology
a) Ideological terms like liberal and
conservative are frequently used by
academics, pundits and newspapers as a
way to categorize issues, approaches and
attitudes
b) These labels are very different by country
c) Despite their prevalence most voters are
uncomfortable with the terms and
frequently use them incorrectly
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American Voter (1960)
Stimson
Partisanship
a) Most Americans (roughly 9 out of 10)
classify themselves as partisan either
strong, weak or leaning
b) Generally stronger partisans tend to be
better informed and hold stronger and
more extreme attitudes towards issues
c) Citizens are able to differentiate the parties
on the issues and the sense that parties are
further apart on the issues is growing in
the electorate
Party Identification
a) Psychological attachment or ‘affective
orientation’ (American Voter)
b) ‘Running Tally’ (Fiorina)
Converting Information into
Opinions
a) Functional theories: Katz
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Utilitarian
Ego defense
Knowledge
Value-expressive
b) Functional theories: Downs (1958)- voters use
instrumental rationality or use a cost/benefit
analysis when it comes to opinions
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How would this work?
Does it seem likely to occur this way?
Converting Information into
Opinions
c) Learning Theory
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Hovland, Janis, Kelly
Transfer of affect
On line processing (Lodge, Steenbergen and Brau)
d) Elaboration Likelihood Model
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Central route
Peripheral route
e) Receive-Accept-Sample (Zaller)
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What does it mean for survey design?
Discussion
a) Is the American public informed enough
to make the necessary political choices?
b) How do people with low levels of political
information make political choices?
c) Why is the public so poorly informed?
d) Paradox of aggregate-level opinion.
For Next Time
a) Read Clawson & Oxley, Chapters 11 & 12
b) Which would you rather have: Elected
officials who stick to their campaign
promises rigidly or elected officials who
make policy decisions based on public
opinion polls? Why?
c) Given the evidence in chapter 11, would
you say public policy in the U.S. is a clear
reflection of public preferences? Why or
why not?