Transcript The 15 Fastest Warming LMEs

TOWARD ECOSYSTEM BASED
ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT
OF LATIN AMERICAN AND
CARIBBEAN SEA LARGE MARINE
ECOSYSTEMS
LAC SYMPOSIUM ON LMEs
Cancun, 7-8 September 2015
Kenneth Sherman
NOAA - NMFS
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Large Marine Ecosystems are Naturally Formed
Coastal Ocean Management Areas
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ECOLOGICAL CRITERIA
USED TO DETERMINE
AREAL EXTENT OF LMES:
• Bathymetry
• Hydrography
• Productivity
• Trophodynamics
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4
Seminal LME
Published Volumes
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80% OF THE WORLD’S FISHERIES CATCHES ARE
PRODUCED IN 66 LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
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LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN LMEs
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Courtesy of Villy Christensen, UBC, Fisheries Centre
ESTIMATED
SOCIOECONOMIC VALUE
OF LMEs
Goods and Services Contribute
$12.6 Trillion Annually to the
Global Economy
Costanza et al. , NATURE, Vol. 287/ 15 May 1997
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Climate change
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Introductions
3
Mechanical
habitat
destruction
Human
expansion
Altered
ecosystems
2
Pollution
1
Fishing
“Then”
(from Jackson et al., Science vol. 293, 27 July 2001)
“Now”
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LMEs are Global Centers of
Effort to Introduce Ecosystem
Based Management (EBM)
Practices
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ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT:
A PARADIGM SHIFT
FROM
TO
Individual species
Ecosystems
Small spatial scale
Multiple scales
Short-term perspective
Long-term perspective
Humans: independent of
ecosystems
Humans: integral part of
ecosystems
Management divorced from
research
Adaptive management
Managing commodities
Sustaining production potential
for goods and services
From:
Lubchenco J. 1994. The scientific basis of ecosystem management: Ecosystem management: Status
and potential: 103rd Congress, 2d session, Committee Print. U.S. Government Printing Office,
Superintendent of Documents. 33-39
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LME – EBM Practices are Focused on :
• Sustaining fisheries
• Controlling pollution
• Restoring habitats
• Coastal planning
• Adaptation to climate change
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Five LME Assessment Modules
• Productivity
• Fish and Fisheries
• Pollution and Ecosystem Health
• Socioeconomics
• Governance
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5 MODULES WITH INDICATORS
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Ecosystem Based Management of LMEs
Supported by Agreed Upon Coastal Ocean
Goals of 3 UN Environmental Summits
• 1992 Rio “Prevent, reduce, and control degradation
of the marine environment so as to maintain and
improve its life support and productive capacities”
• 2002 Johannesburg “Encourage the application by
2010 of the ecosystem approach”
• 2012 Rio +20 “We therefore commit to protect and
restore the health, productivity, and resilience of
oceans and marine ecosystems….”
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FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE IS AVAILABLE TO
LAC COUNTRIES FOR EBM-LME
PROJECTS FROM GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
FACILITY TRUST FUND CONTINGENT ON
SUCCESSFUL GRANT PROPOSALS
INCLUDING:
• TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC
ANALYSIS (TDA)
• STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN (SAP)
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GEF International Waters
Operational Strategy
Supports
New
Paradigm
• Ecosystem-based LME
Restoration Actions
•TDA/SAP Priority Actions
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GEF Financial Support For Planning &
Implementing EBM Goals in LMEs
1995-2014
$3.15 billion
2014-2018
$2.86 billion
Total EBM/LME
support to developing
countries
$6.01 billion
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Engaging with partners
• 5 UN Agencies
–
–
–
–
–
UNDP
UNEP
UNIDO
FAO
IOC UNESCO
• 2 NGOs
– IUCN
– WWF
• 2 Global Financial Institutions
– Global Environment Facility
– World Bank
• 110 countries moving toward ecosystembased sustainable development
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22 LMEs with GEF-Supported EBM
Projects since 1994
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Mr. Zhanhai Zhang, Director-General, Department of International Cooperation,
State Oceanic Administration, China, and Mr. Sang-Pyo Suh, Director, Economic
Organization & Environment Division, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade,
Republic of Korea, signed the statement of agreement approving the SAP at an
endorsement ceremony in China. Representatives from UNDP/GEF, the project
manager, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea participated as
observers of the signing.
Benguela Commission
Signing of the Interim Agreement in
2006; Angola signed in 2007.
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Yellow Sea LME SAP: carrying capacity, ecosystem services,
and regional targets that maintain services
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Going Forward 2014 - 2018
Assist LME Network in EBM coordination and integration of an
estimated $2.86 billion in GEF supported EBM projects in:
Fisheries recovery and sustainability
Pollution and ecosystem health
Habitat Recovery
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
Integrated Coastal Management (ICM)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
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N inputs and transport by rivers to
Large Marine Ecosystems.
Natural
N2-fixation
Crop
N2-fixation
Fertilizer
Sewage
Atmospheric
Deposition
Manure
Symbols for diagram courtesy of the Integration and Application Network
(ian.umces.edu/symbols), University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science.
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DIN inputs to LMEs from land-based
sources predicted by the NEWS DIN
model
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(Figure from Lee and Seitzinger( 2009).
Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen in a Businessas-usual (BAU) Forecast
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Accelerated
Warming of
the World’s
LMEs in 61 of
63 LME
Assessments
The 15 fastest
warming LMEs
around the
globe
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From Behrenfeld et al. 2007
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Estimate of
2040 – 2060
primary
production
change (Pg-C
deg-1 yr-1 )
The global
effects of
climate warming
on primary
productivity are
projected by
latitude for the
years 240-2060.
The primary
productivity
The 15 Fastest
change
(Pg C
Warming
deg-1year-1) and
LMEs (1982temperature
increase,2006
is
shown above for
six Atlantic
Ocean
Circulation
models.
Modified from
Sarmiento et al.
2004.
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LMEs
Bordering
GEFEligible
Countries
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
SUM
LME Name
Insular Pacific Hawaiian
California Current
Gulf of California
Pacific Central American
Gulf of Mexico
Caribbean Sea
Southeast US Continental
Shelf
Humboldt Current
South Brazil Shelf
East Brazil Shelf
Canary Current
Guinea Current
Benguela Current
Agulhas Current
Somali Coastal Current
Arabian Sea
Red Sea
Bay of Bengal
Gulf of Thailand
South China Sea
Sulu-Celebes Sea
Indonesian Sea
North Australian Shelf
Northeast Australian Shelf
East Central Australian Shelf
West Central Australian Shelf
Northwest Australian Shelf
East China Sea
Kuroshio Current
5-yr mean
Fisheries biomass Fisheries biomass
fisheries biomass yield status - %
yield status - %
in tonnes
fully exploited
overexploited
6,121.00
1
54
634,669.00
N/A
N/A
134,297.00
45
48
788,191.00
42
18
987,865.00
36
60
370,231.00
40
58
89,216.00
10,617,103.00
130,669.00
127,969.00
2,229,215.00
1,010,453.00
1,307,649.00
295,364.00
58,961.00
2,486,227.00
129,206.00
3,062,147.00
676,304.00
6,454,043.00
1,207,946.00
2,392,818.00
159,572.00
36,310.00
29,095.00
54
N/A*
20
40
72
71
50
30
45
84
88
83
37
83
82
88
78
46
18
26
N/A*
40
48
6
24
8
32
50
11
10
15
50
13
17
12
18
30
64
19,079.00
62,842.00
4,339,890.00
823,035.00
40,666,487.00
75
59
77
48
10
18
21
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30° North to 30°
South
Circumglobal Belt of 29
LMEs at Risk from Projected
Primary Productivity
Declines
29 LMEs annually produce
40.6mmt or 50.7% average
annual biomass yields
20 LMEs border GEF eligible
countries
16 LMEs are subjects of
present or completed GEFLME EBM projects
FAO Precautionary Principle
implementation Serves as a
Mitigation Option
*Annual limits on total allowable
catches for dominant pelagic species
are presently in place for the
Humboldt Current.
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“Integrated research,
monitoring, training,
and outreach
programs at the
large-marineecosystem scale are
urgently needed in
every large marine
ecosystem.”
J. Lubchenco foreword, “Lessons from the Ice Bear”
p.xiii in Ecosystem-based Management for the Oceans,
K. McLeod and H. Leslie, eds. 2009, Island Press.
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