Transcript Supporting Propaganda

Islamic State: Insights from
Strategic Subcultures Theory
and Combatting Terrorist
Propaganda
ALEX BURNS ([email protected])
SPS SYMPOSIUM, 28TH OCTOBER 2015
PHD CANDIDATE, SCHOOL OF POLITICS & SOCIAL INQUIRY, MONASH UNIVERSITY
2015 Thesis Milestones

Mid-Candidature Review Panel (26th October 2015).

Research training in intellectual property rights and business development.

35,000 words draft working notes written in 2015.

Focus on Process Tracing as main methodology: identify causal mechanisms (e.g. cultural
transmission, social learning, and folklore).

Identification of possible areas for future research.
Research Methodology

Small-N case study using “heuristic” approach: existing literature versus strategic
subculture explanations (George & Bennett 2005).

Selection of deviant and extreme cases (Gerring 2012).

Process tracing that identifies the causal mechanisms and processes that link X1 (terrorist
organisation exists and rapidly grows) and Y1 outcome (survival over a significant time
period and carries out successful terrorist campaigns) (George & Bennett 2005; Brun &
Pedersen 2013; Bennett & Checkel 2015).

Qualitative data coding (causation / narrative / thematic) of primary and secondary
sources (Saldana 2013; Weller & Barnes 2014; Guest, MacQueen & Namey 2012).

Beginning of database / codebook for Large-N future research.
Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder

Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on
Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union

“Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of
thinking . . . a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral
patterns . . . that places them on the level of “culture” rather
than mere “policy” . . .” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v)

“Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by
organizations.” (Snyder 1977: 9).

“Strategic subculture: . . . a subsection of the broader strategic
community . . . Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes.”
(Snyder 1977: 10).
Islamic State as Proto-Strategic Subculture


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Decision Elite / Senior Leadership

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s elevation to IS leadership in 2010

Deputies (for Iraq and Syria), Shura Council, and military leader

Able to regenerate despite air bombing campaigns / drone attacks
Strategic Vision

Re-establish the Caliphate declared on 29th June 2014 in Mosul, Iraq

Geographic control of areas of northern Iraq and Syria
Military Strategy

Urban attacks to spark sectarian conflict with Shia and Alawi Muslims (Lister 28)

Attrition / psychological warfare campaigns against Iraqi national forces (Lister 29)

Acquisition of Iraq Army and United States Army equipment for force projection
Islamic State’s ‘Shell-State’ Strategy

Loretta Napoleoni (2014: 32) contends that Islamic State is
using a ‘shell-state’ strategy to set-up the administrative
and legislative structure of a nation-state

Control of oil refinery and water infrastructure in northern
Iraq and Syria

Geopolitical integration of Sunni Muslim communities

‘Shell-state’ strategy enables comparative analysis with
Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations

Possible comparative analysis with Michael G. Findley,
Daniel L. Nielson and J.C. Sharman’s Global Shell Games:
Experiments in Transnational Relations, Crime and Terrorism
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014)
Understanding Political Propaganda

Political Propaganda “is a kind of speech that
fundamentally involves political, economic, aesthetic or
rational ideals, mobilized for a political purpose”
(Stanley 2015: 52)

Supporting Propaganda uses “emotional or other
nonrational means” to anchor political ideals (Stanley
2015: 53)

Undermining Propaganda corrodes political ideals
(Stanley 2015: 53)

Media sources and schools in liberal democracies are
“a site or mechanism for the production of
propaganda” (Stanley 2015: 54)
Islamic State’s Propaganda

Islamic State uses Supporting Propaganda and
information control to promote its Caliphate vision and to
attract new recruits

Islamic State’s jihadist decapitation and torture videos
use fear conditioning to target the Iraq Army and
Western audiences as a form of the Social Learning
mechanism (Hoppitt and Laland 2013: 54-55)

Genocide-like targeting of religious and minority groups
including Alawites, Yazidis, and Druze

Response from Western writers like Jay Sekulow
(American Centre for Law and Justice) fits a Threat
Escalation microfoundation of strategic culture (Dr Alan
Bloomfield, UNSW)
Combatting Terrorist Propaganda

FY2015-16 Federal Budget the Australian Government
committed $A21.7 million for the next four years “to limit
the impact of extremist narratives on domestic
audiences” (Commonwealth of Australia 2015: 62)

Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) approaches
(Australian Government 2015; Monash University GTReC
2010-2013; Tahiri and Grossman 2013; Lentini 2012)

Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s “Death Cult”
rhetoric (Lentini 2015) as Undermining Propaganda

Sentiment analysis (Liu 2015) and computational analysis
(Subrahmanian et al 2013) methods to examine
Supporting Propaganda examples in social media

Understand propaganda in a possibly multipolar world
Case Study Provisional Findings

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Strategic subculture framework focuses on Islamic State’s rapid growth

Re-establishing the Caliphate illustrates a State Emulation strategy

Social Learning mechanism is key to jihadist recruitment / training and combat readiness

Cultural Transmission and Folklore mechanisms underpin social media strategy

Islamic State’s leadership is publicly known and can be profiled ‘at a distance’
Great Power response provides test of national strategic cultures

Islamic State has exploited meso- and macro-level weaknesses in Iraq government; 2011-present
Syrian civil war and Assad regime; and United States foreign policies on Iraq and Syria

United States proxy war strategy using Free Syrian Army and other actors has been unable to halt
Islamic State’s recruitment or use of social media networks to mobilise Westerners

Russian air bombing campaign in October 2015 reflects Jack Snyder’s original research in 1977

Spillover effect of Syrian refugee flows into EU countries (Greece, Austria, Germany)
Discussion