Transcript Kalabagh Conflict Resollution

IEP National Seminar on Water Storage
by Large Dams
April 30,2005
Conflict Resolution Techniques for
Kalabagh Dam
Dr.Javed Yunas Uppal
Asim Javed Uppal
Pakistan Foundation For Advancement of
Engineering & Technology
www.pfaet.com
www.pfaet.org
www.pfaet.com.pk
World’s Largest Sweet Water
Reservoir
Kalabagh Dam Issue
Statement of the Problem
Kalabagh Dam, though technically sound
and potentially beneficial project, and has
attracted financing, yet
regionally,politically and publicly,
the project has failed to establish
a total win- win situation.
People Against People
Objective of Intervention
An intervention addressing to the needs of
all stake holders; public at large, influentials,
experts and international parties, is to be
planned implemented and monitored on
tasks such as advocacy, opinion and attitude
building, and most of all the techniques of
conflict resolution.
An effective action plan, its execution and
monitoring cannot be performed without
identifying the correct roles that the major
causal parameters play in this matter, and
without understanding their dynamics.
DEFINITION OF CONFLICT
“Conflicts are defined as interactions of
interdependent people who see their goals as
incompatible.”
Conflicts around dams come from a number of
sources; especially from the real and perceived
distribution of costs and benefits, disparities in
social and economic power, the roles of different
institutions, and specifics of project location and
design.
Involvement and Conflict Dynamics
Involvement programs are needed to assist all
stakeholders in a conflict that has traditionally
had little dialogue previously. With limited
dialogue, such groups may either refrain from
participation, or conversely, escalate rapidly the
tactics they use to be heard.
Both situations are detrimental to meaningful
involvement and to peaceful resolution of
conflict.
A conflict resolution system includes:
 psychological
 rules
and regulations
 processes,

and cultural expectations
for administrative
governance structures.
A conflict resolution system has a series of
linked steps to respond to current
grievances, needs and conditions as well
as learning from participants to create new
approaches and values.
From a statistical data, it can be found as
to what quantitative and associative
relationships exist between the major
causal parameters and the resulting
resolution of the conflict.
Typical Cases
The following are some parallel scenarios
elsewhere in the world

Scenario-1
Ref: Edelman, et al. 1990
Lesotho Highlands Water Project
Partnering A National Dialogue was established for the
Treaty Review Process which involve a collaborative team
approach to construction and management of large facilities.
Instead of the normal adversarial contractual relationship,
the cooperative management team works together to design,
choose common objectives, and implement a co-operative
partnership for evaluating progress and solving problems
Lesotho Highlands Development Authority in Conjunction
with local authorities set up a Conflict Resolution Mechanism
at the community level to handle disputes. The Authority reports
that chiefs were empowered to deal with administrative and
dispute issues at the village level on a day-to-day basis.
At the engineering/dam construction level, Dispute Review
Boards have been utilized.
Possibility of Our Farm Lands
Scenario 2:
Yarmuk River Project
Ref: Bingham. 1997
Mediation is the intervention into a negotiation by an
acceptable impartial third party that has no authority to make
or enforce a decision to assist parties in reaching their own
mutually acceptable reconciliation, settlement of issues, or
agreement. Mediators have been used for a number of
international cross-boundary water disputes (e.g. for the
Yarmuk River) and in North America for many types of facility
siting, but relatively rarely in other parts of the world
UNDERLYING STATE OF AFFAIRS
The stakeholders in the Kalabagh issue are:
 The
people of the provinces
 the politicians
 the experts and the authorities
 leaving aside the international parties
The levels of the sensitivity to the issue and
the mindsets of these groups can be
pictured from the following description:
People:
• Jobs, work and rising prices are the main
worries
• Easily prone to any kind of propaganda
•
Any thing touching ethnicity, caste religion
or tribe must be repelled
•
Least knowledge of facts about Kalabagh
Dam and its effects
•
Least botheration of technicalities involved
in the project
Politicians:

Must gain power and importance and must raise
issues touching peoples’ nerves

Must be seen doing and serving good to own
people no matter what it may be

Least knowledge of administrative procedures
and constraints or government priorities
 Least
knowledge of facts about Kalabagh
Dam and its effects
 Least
botheration of technicalities involved
in the project
Experts
 Living
in their own narrow fields having
pride in own selves. World outside is nonentity
 Promotions,
pay scales, and pleasure of
the boss is paramount
 Lack
of team spirit or working with others,
or respecting others differing view points
 Knowledge
of only the Dam and little
knowledge of its impact in entirety
 Most
technical knowledge is restricted to
its own compartment
Authorities
 Born
to rule because of special talent and
connections. Must exercise authority
without sharing
 Promotions,
pay scales, and pleasure of
the boss is paramount. Extra curricular
income is a right too
 Public
is a non-entity. Politicians are goofs.
Only authorities know what is best for the
people
 Knowledge
of the Dam just for discussion
of the elite
 Technicalities
are matters of lower
intellect. Great minds are above them
What are the various ways for conflict
resolution
 Negotiation
 Agenda
Setting
Processes for Handling Conflicts
 Collaborative
Problem Solving
 Fact-finding
 Mediation
 Partnering
 Arbitration
 Incentives
Agreement
for
Adhering
Parties
to
an
A system thinking approach can be helpful in
this regard.
Dynamics of the system can be postulated
by a Computer model using Vensim
software package.
 Vensim
System Dynamics Approach
A System Dynamics Approach is best
suited to understand the phenomenon,
and to bring forward any intervention
round to quantitative control.
The System Dynamic Approach is a
procedure of conceiving the most plausible
governing parameters, building up their
interactive equations, and processing
them simultaneously, to plot the time line
effect on the resultants.
VENSIM MODEL
Vensim model can help with
 a) detailing out options for solutions
 b) monitoring a process once put in
place
 c) execution and control
Vensim model parameters do not
necessarily need to be derived from
statistical data.
 The
model should be put together such
that it makes sense in the first place
and be reviewed thoroughly
 Then
once the model presents a
solution,then we can 'set values of the
parameters using practical judgment
and parametric performance analysis
given objectives'
Then we can set the process in place
and use statistical data gathering to a)
monitor the performance of the process
and b) refine the model parameters and
improve fidelity if needed.
A lot of analysis of options can be done
using parameteric sensitivity analysis.
The strength of the model really lies in
how well it was put together to start
with
Fixing the process would involve:
a) Curb unfounded propaganda
b)
Care & concern atmosphere
c)
Authorities conduct
d)
Campaign for awareness of people
Factors




Factor S: Societal Acceptance
Rejection according to a set of
values.
Factor E: Emotional Control
Release Cushion
Factor A: Ability to act and get away
with it.
Factor I: Existence of early Indicators
Intervening Mechanism
Measurement
 Favourable
opinions expressed per year
 Expressions Per Year
Source of Information
 News
Paper
 Clippings
 Protestations
 Reporting
 Questionnaires
Evaluate Relative Influence
 Compare
Localities where strong
acceptance/rejection forces exist with those
where they do not.
 Compare
localities of greater emotional
stress with those of lesser emotional stress.
 Compare
localities where prejudice exists
with those where this does not exist.
 Compare
localities where there are more
communications and interventions with
those where they are none.
1.Calculation of Conflict Pressure
Factors
Magnitude
of Conflict
Place -1
Where
Societal
Conflict is
maximum
Place -2
Where
Societal
Conflict is
minimal
Number of
People
attributed
to Conflict
Pressure
Societal
Conflict
Factor
3000
2600
400
400/2800
=0.14
Method of Relating Results with Actions
1. Calculation of Awareness Campaign Factor
Place -1
Where
Awareness
Campaign
Has Been
Maximum
Magnit- 3400
ude of
conflict
Place -2
Where
Awareness
Campaign
Has been
Minimum
Number of
Awareness
People/Year Campaign
Attributed to Factor
Awareness
Campaign
4000
-600
-600/3700
=-0.16
Vensim Modeling Outputs
Be One Think One Act One
THANK
YOU