Transcript Ten Discplines of a Successful Forecaster

Ten Disciplines of a
Successful Forecaster
Meteorology 415
Fall 2011
Discipline 1

First examines and studies
observations and analysis
– Reviews satellite / radar imagery
– Looks at large scale and regional surface
observations
– Locates thermal advection patterns and
jet stream circulations
Discipline 2
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Looks at details of analysis fields,
focusing on the ‘unexpected’
– Searches for clouds / echoes in nontypical places
– Examines surface reports for the ‘odd’
report(s)
– Watches for ageostrophic components of
upper air fields
Discipline 3

Keeps continuity with weather pattern
– Rarely forgets about weather

Develops a daily briefing routine
– Touches base often with ‘data’

Reviews satellite and surface reports
– Generally ‘in touch’ with regime

Looks at ‘ancillary data’ to confirm it
Discipline 4

Probes weather data / analysis
– Asks questions ‘why’ are:
Clouds configured the way they are
 Radar echoes taken on certain shape
 Surface observations showing this
temperature, wind or dewpoint gradient
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Discipline 5

Allows ‘Guidance’ to become the
reward of a thorough observation
review
– Waits to look over a variety of analysis
before seeing what the models show
– Understands where to look for ‘problems’
with the guidance based on the ‘obs’
Discipline 6

Applies conceptual models to forecast
challenges
– Keeps a mental notebook of types of
fronts, jet stream disturbances, etc.
– Adjusts conceptual models to actual
occurrences

FRONTS ARE REALLY WAVES LIKE THE TIDE
Discipline 7

Faithfully reviews past forecasts (no
matter how painful) to glean insights
into the ways of the atmosphere –
– Looks at specific errors and asks ‘why this
happened the way it did?’
– Searches for answers beyond the trite:
“The models led me astray”
Discipline 8

Becomes increasingly consistent with
forecasting
– Makes a point to review the internal
consistency of a prediction
– Adjusts probabilities to fit a likely scenario
– Learns when to hedge and when to go
for the fences
Discipline 9

Keeps a log/journal of lessons learned
– Progresses from model bias issues
– Identifies own biases
– Perceives new texture to atmospheric
circulations
– Gains broader overview of the forecast
problem
Discipline 10

Broadens learning beyond ‘me’ against
the models
– Learns the value of consensus
– Gains insight into use of ensembles
– Reads new material on forecasting (online modules)
– Keeps a good sense of humor!