Transcript Presentation

Wildland Fire Decision Support System and
the 2009 Implementation Strategy for the
Federal Wildland Fire Policy:
Air Quality Tools and Opportunities
Pete Lahm – Forest Service
Fire and Aviation Management
2009 Implementation Strategy
• Every wildland fire will be assessed following
a decision support process that examines
the full range of responses.
• The system currently under development to
support this is the Wildland Fire Decision
Support System (WFDSS).
NIXON WEATHER STATION (#020113)
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
• A decision support and documentation
system – not a decision making system,
Average
60
Maximum
Bridger-Knoll Fire, 6/20/96, ERC 48
• Meets all current operational plan
preparation needs,
Mt. Emma Fire, 6/3/99, ERC 19
Minimum
50
1999
30
20
10
DATE
10/30
10/9
10/23
10/2
10/16
9/25
9/4
9/18
9/11
8/28
8/7
8/21
8/14
7/31
7/3
7/24
7/17
7/10
6/26
6/5
6/19
6/12
5/29
5/22
5/15
5/8
0
5/1
ERC
40
• Meet national, interagency wildland fire
management needs.
Management Response Principles
• Every unplanned wildland fire will receive a
management response,
• Every response is developed from the full
range of tactical responses,
• Responses may vary in time as well as in
space,
NIXON WEATHER STATION (#020113)
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
• Management responses must meet FMP and
Land and Resource Management Plan
objectives.
Average
60
Maximum
Bridger-Knoll Fire, 6/20/96, ERC 48
Mt. Emma Fire, 6/3/99, ERC 19
Minimum
50
1999
30
20
10
DATE
10/30
10/9
10/23
10/2
10/16
9/25
9/4
9/18
9/11
8/28
8/7
8/21
8/14
7/31
7/3
7/24
7/17
7/10
6/26
6/5
6/19
6/12
5/29
5/22
5/15
5/8
0
5/1
ERC
40
2009 Fire Season
National Acres Burned
Year-to-date
10-yr average
5.7M
6.4M
About 90% of 10-yr ave
with Alaska accounting
for 3M acres
Principles of Decision Support
• Decision support processes provide information
used by managers when they are making
decisions,
• Decision support does not replace decision
making,
• Decision support information comes from a
variety of sources, ranging from experience to
quantitative analysis procedures, science,
NIXON WEATHER STATION (#020113)
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
Average
60
Maximum
Bridger-Knoll Fire, 6/20/96, ERC 48
• Decision support information has applications
across a range of scales and concentrations.
Mt. Emma Fire, 6/3/99, ERC 19
Minimum
50
1999
30
20
10
DATE
10/30
10/9
10/23
10/2
10/16
9/25
9/4
9/18
9/11
8/28
8/7
8/21
8/14
7/31
7/3
7/24
7/17
7/10
6/26
6/5
6/19
6/12
5/29
5/22
5/15
5/8
0
5/1
ERC
40
What is Needed?
• Better risk characterization:
• Risk identification
• Quality risk-informed decision making:
• Risk acceptance - achieving objectives?
• How is success measured?
• Resource use and tactical decisions:
• “speed, agility, and focus” - “overwhelming mass”
• potential for success – mobility = decreasing resources
when the probability of containment is low – increasing
resources when the probability of containment is high.
•
•
•
•
Better accountability,
Measures of performance,
Decision command and control
Reporting
What is WFDSS?
• A system that:
NIXON WEATHER STATION (#020113)
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
• Is consistent with accepted models of risk-informed
decision making,
• presents a risk characterization in support of wildland
fire decision making.
• makes risk characterization intuitive, logical, relevant,
understandable, and accessible.
• assembles, consolidates, and presents information to
decision makers.
• can easily share information among approved users.
Average
60
Maximum
Bridger-Knoll Fire, 6/20/96, ERC 48
Mt. Emma Fire, 6/3/99, ERC 19
Minimum
50
1999
30
20
10
DATE
10/30
10/9
10/23
10/2
10/16
9/25
9/4
9/18
9/11
8/28
8/7
8/21
8/14
7/31
7/3
7/24
7/17
7/10
6/26
6/5
6/19
6/12
5/29
5/22
5/15
5/8
0
5/1
ERC
40
• An analytic – deliberative process that is an
iterative, information-goal directed process.
• Web-based with mapping & reporting functions
What is WFDSS Used For?
• To improve strategic decision making for
all wildland fires,
• To simplify support to decision making,
• To document decisions and rationale,
• To simplify decision documentation
process and sharing of analyses and
reports.
• Interrelationships with other databases and
information sources,
• LANDFIRE
• ROSS
• ISUITE
• FPA
When is WFDSS Used?
• Eventually on every wildland fire.
• For planning purposes prior to ignition and for
environmental planning and project planning.
• Implementation schedules will vary among
agencies (2010 should have all FLM’s using it).
WFDSS Process and Events
Land and
Resource Mgmt
Plan
Response
Level 1
Response
Level 2
Response
Level 3
Fire Management
Plan
•Begins at time of
ignition
•Extended action and/or
resource benefit objectives
•Most detailed analysis
and planning
•Initial action
•More detailed analysis and
planning
•Detailed Course of
Action – may include
long-term considerations
•No decisions
•Basic analysis
•Developed Course of
Action
•Preplanned
actions/decisions
•Decision(s)
•Decision(s)
WFDSS Subsection Areas
Information
Situation
Objectives
Course of Action
Validation
Decision Summary
Periodic Assessment
WFDSS Framework
Reports
Periodic
Assessment
Information
Decision
Summary
Situation
WFDSS
Implementation Actions
Validation
Course of Action
Objectives
WFDSS Air Quality Tools Integration
WFDSS
AQ Portal
Various Air Quality Tools
Goals:
• To provide “one-stop” portal access to
the most useful and relevant air
quality tools
• To use data from WFDSS to drill-down
into existing tools for relevant
information
• To modify tools as necessary to better
serve WFDSS needs
• To avoid the need for duplicate entry
of information
• To provide help and how-to-use
instructions
8 Tools Identified
• Includes climatologies, current
conditions and forecasts
• Many give fire-specific, customized
information
• More can be added
Split by meteorology
and smoke impact
tools:
• Increasing complexity as one
proceeds down the page.
Fire Information
• Fire Location information passed from
WFDSS
• User can also set Fire Location on
page (through Google Maps app or
Lat/Lon)
• More information from WFDSS to be
passed in later versions
Tools
•
•
•
•
•
Smoke Guidance Point Forecast
Smoke Guidance Maps
RAWS Wind-roses
Current Air Quality Monitoring Data
Climatological Ventilation / Mixing
Height Statistics
• Probablistic Smoke Impacts based on
Climatology
• Custom While-you-wait Trajectories
• Custom While-you-wait Fuels, Fire
Consumption, and Smoke Impact
Modeling
• Each Tool briefly explained on website
• What is this? & How can I use it?
information provided for each tool
• Tools labeled and searchable based
on characteristics to help quickly
identify what you are looking for
• Tools provided by USFS AirFire,
DRI/CEFA, FCAMMS, STI
Closer Look
• How does it work?
• WFDSS sends information (currently fire location) to a portal website
• The website converts this information into forms understandable by the
various tools and drills into the tool to show relevant information
• Users can upload the resulting maps, etc… back into WFDSS
• What kinds of output is available?
• Text summaries, maps and other graphics
• Forecasts, real-time monitoring, and climatological summaries
• What can this output be used for?
• Long list of user generated potential uses
WFDSS Text Air Quality Forecast (active)
Smoke Guidance Point Forecast
•7 day point specific forecast in 12 hour steps
•mixing height speed and direction, ventilation rate, Haines Index
Product Delivery
• Web based
• Animation loops
• Forecast grid of individual forecasts
• Raw data output for GACCs (via FTP)
• Maps available by GACC
• Google Earth overlay (coming soon)
Example mixing height map
Example ventilation rate map
Example transport wind map
RAWS Windroses
• Climatological wind directions
• Based on nearest RAWS station
• Daytime and nighttime treated separately
• Single click results from WFDSS portal
RAWS Windroses
Daytime
Nighttime
Ventilation Climate Information
System (VCIS)
• Climatological Mixing Height and Ventilation
Index
• Based on 40-yr model run
• AM and PM treated separately
• Single-click results from WFDSS portal
VCIS Example Output
SMARTFIRE Trajectories
• On the fly trajectories
• Single click results from WFDSS portal
SMARTFIRE Trajectories
Custom, while-you-wait fuels, consumption, and smoke
dispersion modeling.
Uses NWS NAM meteorology and the BlueSky
Framework.
2009 Implementation Strategy –
After Action Review
NIXON WEATHER STATION (#020113)
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
Average
60
Maximum
Bridger-Knoll Fire, 6/20/96, ERC 48
Mt. Emma Fire, 6/3/99, ERC 19
Minimum
50
1999
30
20
10
DATE
10/30
10/9
10/23
10/2
10/16
9/25
9/4
9/18
9/11
8/28
8/7
8/21
8/14
7/31
7/3
7/24
7/17
7/10
6/26
6/5
6/19
6/12
5/29
5/22
5/15
5/8
0
5/1
ERC
40
• Strategy test in 2008
• Strategy out for all Federal agencies March 2009
(after SE fire season and just before western fire
season)
• Two types Wildland Fire:
• Wildfire (unplanned ignition, natural / human)
• Prescribed Fire (planned ignition)
• Allows multiple objectives on wildfires that are
adaptive through time and space tied to FMP
and L/RMP
• Adaptive to allow risks and potential for success
to be fully addressed
• Adaptive to respond to changing weather, fuels,
resource availability, resource effects, etc.
AAR-Results
NIXON WEATHER STATION (#020113)
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
Average
60
Maximum
Bridger-Knoll Fire, 6/20/96, ERC 48
Mt. Emma Fire, 6/3/99, ERC 19
Minimum
50
1999
30
20
10
DATE
10/30
10/9
10/23
10/2
10/16
9/25
9/4
9/18
9/11
8/28
8/7
8/21
8/14
7/31
7/3
7/24
7/17
7/10
6/26
6/5
6/19
6/12
5/29
5/22
5/15
5/8
0
5/1
ERC
40
•Interagency group addressed:
• Communications
•Air Quality
•Reporting
•Planning
•WFDSS/Decision-making
•Operations
•Interagency comprehensive communications
plan released with strategy needed
•Assumed multi-year implementation
•2009 was a transition year
•Any pre-season work facilitated the transition
•Risk discussions held on 30 fire-prone Forests
yielded greater understanding and success
AAR-Results - continued
NIXON WEATHER STATION (#020113)
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
Average
60
Maximum
Bridger-Knoll Fire, 6/20/96, ERC 48
Mt. Emma Fire, 6/3/99, ERC 19
Minimum
50
1999
30
20
10
DATE
10/30
10/9
10/23
10/2
10/16
9/25
9/4
9/18
9/11
8/28
8/7
8/21
8/14
7/31
7/3
7/24
7/17
7/10
6/26
6/5
6/19
6/12
5/29
5/22
5/15
5/8
0
5/1
ERC
40
• Communications
•Develop a national interagency comm. plan
•Consistent terminology
•Training
•Interagency Implementation website
•Air Quality
•Communication plan for wildfire a successful
approach (MT/ID)
•Outreach plan needed for public
•Coordination between agencies/units…
•Accountability/evaluation process
•WFDSS Air Quality tools
•Training
First Look: 2010 Fire Season
Graphic shows typical El Niño impacts during the winter
…but this year’s El Niño is not behaving in the usual way
Increased risk of
California floods &
burned area concerns
More Nor’easters
Preliminary Wildland Fire Outlook for 2010
Normal
to Above
Normal
to Below
Normal
to Below
?