Transcript Global Conflict, Part I

Global
Conflict and
Global Order:
Part I
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGbx
msDFVnE
Armed conflict vs. order in international relations
 Armed conflicts arise from various causes
 International orders are created to prevent, resolve, or
contain conflicts
 Rule-bound competition between interests?
 Controlled conflicts?
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Main models of international order:
 Hegemonic order
 Balance of power
 Democratic peace
 Network-based multipolar order
“Six clusters of threats” to peace and security in contemporary
world*
 1. Socioeconomic threats, including
 poverty
 infectious disease
 environmental degradation
 2. Inter-state conflict
 3. Internal conflict, including
 Civil war
 Genocide
 Other large-scale atrocities
-----------------------*UN Secretary General’s report “In Larger Freedom”:
Report - Table of Contents ; UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s
report “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility” :
Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel
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4. Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass
destruction
 nuclear
 radiological
 chemical
 biological
5. Terrorism
6. Transnational organized crime
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In contemporary world, it is often hard to draw a line
between international conflicts and internal conflicts within
nations – there is a tendency toward globalization of conflict
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Example: 4 levels of conflict in Afghanistan:
4 levels of conflict (Afghanistan as example):
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Internal conflicts are more likely to have international
implications
International developments tend to have more rapid and
significant impact on internal situations
Global – US and NATO vs. Al Qaeda and Taliban
Regional – interests of neighbouring states
National – Taliban vs. the Afghan Government, Pakistani
Taliban vs. the Pakistani Government
Local – opium industry, arms trade, ethnic conflicts
All 4 levels are closely interconnected
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The tendency toward globalization of conflict has been
developing since the start of World War I in 1914
What made world wars possible:
 19th century economic globalization led to growing
interconnectedness, integration of societies
 Struggle for power within countries acquired international
dimensions
 Availability of economic resources
 Development of military technologies
 The culture of war
New rationalizations of war
 The idea of total war
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National War Memorial, Ottawa
World War I: 1914-1918
World War II: 1939-1945
The Cold War: 1946-1991
The Global War on Terror: 2001-?
World War I: 1914-1918
was a cumulative effect of:
-Rivalries between states (Germany-Britain, FranceGermany, Russia-Austria, Germany-Russia, RussiaTurkey, etc.)
-Class conflicts within states
-Nationalist struggles against empires
The war for power and influence within the global
system
 Expected to be brief
 The reality: a bloody 4-year stalemate
 Ended by revolutions in Russia (1917) and Germany
(1918)
 15 mln. deaths, incl. 9 mln. combat
 The flu pandemic of 1918-1919: 20-40 mln. deaths: a
direct environmental effect of “the Great War”
EUROPE, 1914
Declaration of war: Berlin
Adolf Hitler celebrating the start of the Great
War: Munich, Germany, Aug. 1914
Declaration of war: London
Australian
poster
urging to
volunteer
German troops advancing on Paris
French troops marching through Paris to the front
Lethal
gases: first
weapon of
mass
destruction
Endless slaughter
British soldiers blinded by poisonous gas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
zJZttzblHFQ&feature=related
World War I in retrospective – the start of a century of
global conflict
Read Eric Hobsbawm’s article “The Future of War and
Peace”
Eric Hobsbawm: The Future of War and Peace
A good reference library on World War I:
Trenches on the Web - Reference Library
See also this BBC site:
BBC - History - The Western Front, 1914 - 1918
Animation
THE WAR AS A REVOLUTIONARY FORCE
 Results of the war:
-Collapse of 4 empires: Russian, Austro-Hungarian,
German, Turkish
-World capitalism severely undermined – North and
South (economically, politically, socially, ideologically)
-The rise of social protest and revolutionary
movements everywhere
The Russian Revolution, 1917
The 1917 revolution in Russia: The state has collapsed,
citizen militias patrol streets
Vladimir Lenin, leader of the Communist Revolution in Russia
The radical proposal for a new world order
The Peace Decree proclaimed by Russia’s new Soviet
government in November 1917:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Call for immediate democratic peace without any
territorial claims or indemnities
Right of all nations to self-determination
Willing to consider other terms proposed by other states
Immediate armistice for 3 months
Call to working people of the world to rise against “slavery
and exploitation of any kind”
Peace and revolution: were they compatible?
Also: a promise to conduct diplomacy openly, without secret
agreements with anyone
Woodrow Wilson, US President in 1913-1920
The liberal-democratic proposal for a new world order: US
President Wilson’s “14 points”, January 1918
Open diplomacy, no secret treaties
Absolute freedom of the seas
Free trade
Maximum arms reduction
Right of nations to self-determination
Creation of an international organization to keep peace
– League of Nations
THE KEY THEME:
“The principle of justice to all peoples and nationalities and
the right to live on equal terms of liberty and safety with
one another, whether they be strong or weak”
At the end of World War I, Soviet Russia and the United States
offered alternatives to the collapsed world order
Despite similarities, the two alternatives were fundamentally
incompatible:
US strove to preserve global capitalism through reform
Russia sought to help world revolution to destroy
capitalism and replace it with communism
Allies in World War I, Russia and America became enemies as
a result of the Russian revolution
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US, Britain, France and Japan intervened in the
Russian Civil War on the side of the
counterrevolution
They sent troops to occupy areas of Russia in the
North and the Far East
The US refused to recognize the Soviet
Government until 1933
Leaders of Britain and France stuck to the old rules
David Lloyd George,
British PM
George Clemenceau,
French President
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At the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, Britain and
France, most influential Western powers, were driven
by traditional power considerations
They insisted on severely punishing Germany
They sought to create a balance of power in Europe
which would not let Germany become strong again
They also sought to isolate Soviet Russia
They and other Europeans were sceptical of Wilson’s
grand design for democratic peace
The League of Nations, created at Paris, was rejected
by the US Congress
The world order created after World War I, was deeply
flawed: it contained the seeds of the next world war
Lloyd
George,
Clemenceau
and Wilson
at the Paris
Peace
Conference,
1919
World War II: 1939-1945
Sources:
 Rivalries between Great Powers continued, no stable world
order
 The ideological conflict between world capitalism and world
communism – a global civil war
 The rise of the Soviet Union ideologically committed to
the destruction of capitalism
 The rise of the Left in Europe and Asia, fears of new
revolutions
 The Great Depression, 1929-1933, shattered the global
economy and exacerbated both international and class
conflicts
 Rise of fascism as a force which destroys democracy to:
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defeat the Left
reorganize states for global imperialist war
Adolf Hitler
Iosif Stalin
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Hitler publicly and repeatedly pledged to destroy the Soviet
Union, billing himself as savior of the West from
communism
As a state committed to world revolution, Russia was
viewed as a threat by Western elites
The rise of fascism was partly a response to the threat –
and anticommunism was one of the motives of Western
appeasement of Hitler
Stalin saw the prospect of a new world war as an
opportunity for the spread of communism: the WWI
precedent
But ultimately, WWII was not about revolution: it was an
interstate conflict of a traditional kind, similar to WWII,
waged on a global scale
The geopolitical triangle: Germany, USSR, Western
democracies (WDs)
 WDs hoped to channel Hitler’s aggression to the East,
toward conflict with Russia – reluctant to fight Germany
 Hitler was determined to prevent WDs and USSR from
joining forces: beat them one by one
 Stalin was determined to avoid war with Germany as long
as possible
 1939: A divergence of interests between USSR and WDs
– and a convergence of interests between Germany and
USSR
 The unexpected deal was logical – but only temporary
Moscow, August 23, 1939: German Foreign Minister Joachim
von Ribbentrop signs non-aggression pact with Russia
September 1, 1939: Nazi Germany invades Poland
German troops in occupied Poland, 1939
Fascist dictators triumphant: Hitler and Mussolini in Munich, June 1940
Japanese attack on US Navy at Pearl Harbor, Dec.7, 1941
Nazi
propaganda
poster: SS
forces kill the
Red beast of
communism
Nazi soldiers celebrating success in “Lightning War” against Russia, 1942
Nazi reign of terror in occupied Russia
Stubborn resistance
Defenders of Moscow, October 1941
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DIMENSIONS OF WORLD WAR TWO
Ideological:
Global Right (The Axis: Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain,
and smaller allies)
vs.
Global Left (The USSR and the international communist
movement)
vs.
Global Center (US, Britain, Nationalist China)
1939: Right and Left (Hitler and Stalin) make a deal,
liberal democracy the big loser; the Right and Center at
war
1941: The Right attacks both the Left and the US; a
Center-Left coalition is formed
1945: The Right is defeated by the Center-Left coalition;
the war’s aftermath gives a major boost to the global
Left; liberal internationalism becomes the blueprint of a
new world order
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Geopolitical
 The Axis was the challenger to the world order
 The West was torn apart by the war
 The Communist state, USSR, was in a position of a
status-quo power and a victim of aggression – not as a
revolutionary state
 The battle for Russia was decisive for the defeat of the
Axis challenge
 Russia’s decisive role entitled it to geopolitical gains from
common victory
The turning point of WWII. February 1943: German troops surrender at Stalingrad, Russia
Breaking the Nazi war machine
June 1944: Allied forces land in Normandy to liberate
German POWs, Russia, 1944
German POWs outside Moscow, 1944
The victorious Allies: British PM Churchill, US President Roosevelt and
Soviet Generalissimo Stalin at Yalta Conference, Russia, Feb.1945
The Soviet Red Army takes Berlin, May 1945
Berlin, 1945: surrender of the German High Command
Survivors of a Nazi concentration camp
July 1945: Stalin, Truman and Churchill at Potsdam, Germany
Aug.6, 1945: US atomic bombing of Hiroshima, Japan
Total number of human lives lost in WWII –
60-80 mln. (est.)
Total cost –
Over $2 trln. (in 1990 US dollars)