Transcript On Chasing the Ether of Intelligent Systems

On Chasing the Ether of
Intelligent Systems
Dr. James Guffey
[email protected] – (314) 232-5042
25 Oct 2006
INCOSE Meeting – St. Louis
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Name: Dr. James A. Guffey
Senior Principal Engineer
Key Technical Field: Technology Integration; Autonomous Technologies
Phone: (314) 232-5042
E-mail: [email protected]
Dr. Guffey has been at Boeing/McDonnell Douglas for 2 dozen and 3 years and has been heavily
involved in the definition, implementation and management of a large number of avionics research and
development programs for the Army, Air Force, Navy and DARPA, covering a wide variety of
technology areas. In the technology area of Autonomy and Intelligent Decision Aiding, Dr .Guffey
initiated the first in-house investigations into the use and applicability of Artificial Intelligence
Technology at then MCAIR in 1984 and lead the proposal team that won the DARPA Pilot’s Associate
Program in the mid 80’s. He was the Technical/Deputy Program Manager of the PA program, which
built an AI-based system to assist a fighter pilot in performing future advanced combat missions. The
software architecture for PA was the basis for the Rotor Craft Pilot’s Associate system, which in turn
was the genus of the Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle and some elements of the Future Combat
System program for unmanned vehicles. He was a member of the Integration team for the Unmanned
Systems organization when it was formed in 2001 and responsible for the development of a definition
of potential future markets that could capitalize on advanced automation and autonomous applications
for platforms and systems. In 2004 Jim acted as the Boeing management/technical liaison to the
Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) RedTeam for the DARPA Grand Challenge autonomous vehicle
race in the deserts of California and Nevada. Part of that role was to be the broker to reach back into
Boeing for technical help requested by the onsite Boeing employees at CMU to make the vehicles
successful.
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I’ve Been at This a Long Time
Intelligence
Ether
Recent Introductions by a Colleague: “Jim’s Been at This for Decades!”
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And……, I Guess It’s True!
Circa 1985
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A Few Definitions
Intelligence:
• The Ability to Comprehend; to Understand and Profit From Experience
• The Capacity to Acquire/Apply Knowledge, Especially Toward a Purposeful Goal
• The Faculty of Thought and Reason
• An Intelligent, Incorporeal Being, Especially an Angel
Smart:
• Showing Mental Alertness and Calculation and Resourcefulness
• Of, Relating to, or Being a Highly Automated Device, Especially One That Imitates
Human Intelligence; Does the Right Thing in a Wide Variety of Complicated
Circumstances
Autonomous:
• Not Controlled By Others or By Outside Forces; Independent
• Independent in Mind or Judgment; Self-Directed
Automation:
• Without Volition or Conscious Control; Self-Regulating (i.e. Washing Machine)
• Automatic, as Opposed to Human, Operation or Control of a Process, Equipment
or a System; or the Techniques and Equipment Used to Achieve This
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Definition of Ether
Ether: “An All-Pervading, Infinitely Elastic,
Massless Medium Formerly Postulated
as the Medium of Propagation of
Electromagnetic Waves;
But Subsequently Found
to Be Nonexistent.”
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The Dawn of Artificial Intelligence
• Alan Turing’s Test; 1950
– What He Claimed Was That With Intelligence, Imitation Is
as Good as the Real Thing
• The Quest for “Artificial Intelligence” Started in ~ 1955
I propose to consider the question, "Can Machines Think?"
- Alan Mathison Turing (1950)
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Hard Artificial IntelligenceThe Holy Grail
Sonny
The Terminator
HAL 9000
Knight Rider
(Kitt)
Iron Giant
R2D2
Johnny Five
Robby the Robot
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The Ups and Downs of the Journey
Icarus:
The First AI Guy
• Over Ambitious
Expectations →
• Disillusion →
• AI Winters in 70’s and 90’s
• AI Expectations
– Maybe Time for Another Up Swing?
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What WeCold
All Strive
Reality
to Create
Johnny Five From Short Circuit
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It Doesn’t Help That the Definition
Keeps Changing
At Every Step of the Way, on the Quest for Hard AI Systems,
Whatever We Make Work, We Immediately Declare That It Is
Not Intelligent
Intelligent ?? No
Intelligent ?? No
Intelligent ?? No
Intelligent ?? No
System D
System C
System B
System A
The Creator Knows It Isn’t Smart,
Even If the Audience Thinks It Is!
(So maybe We Should Get Rid of the
Creators After They Create?)
Why? Because Once We See What We Did to Make It
Work We Realize That It Is Only Doing What We Told It to Do!
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Why Do Today’s Systems
Look “Smarter”?
•Brute Force Approach With Elegance
– Storage + Throughput
• These Allow Much More Complicated Algorithms to Be
Imploded, But the Systems Aren’t Any Smarter in
Human Perspective Than Before
– We Ultimately Are Able to
Significantly Expand the Number
and Levels of Contingencies That
We Can Ask a System to Address
+
• (e.g. Deep Blue Chess Champion
60,000,000,000 moves in 180 seconds)
It’s All About Contingencies!
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INCOSE Mandatory Equation
E=
2
mc
Ether = man chasing conundrums*
*Conundrum: A paradoxical, insoluble, or difficult problem; a dilemma.
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A Working Definition
of an Intelligent System
Three Easy Steps
1.
2.
Take Any “Smart”
System of Today
-barian
Locate a Time Machine
3.
Go Back in
Time and Ask
the Locals if
They Think It Is Intelligent?
If They Say Yes; It’s Because It Appears to Them to Be So Far Ahead
of What They Could Do With the Systems of Their Day That it Must Be
“Intelligent”
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Who Needs Intelligence Anyway ?
It’s All About
Capabilities,
Stupid!
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Be Careful of What You Ask For !
If We Make a System that Thinks
Like a Human and is Truly
Artificially Intelligent…….
Sonny
HAL 9000
Whoops…, Sorry , Dave !
….Then, Like Humans, it Could
Also be Artificially Stupid ** !
Do We Really Want Them to Be Just Like Us ?
** Compliments to Jeff Erickson
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Well, Gee it’s only a small chlorine gas leak
It’s Not Like We Always Make
Good Decisions!
If one liftWhy
won’t
use
it, when
Who says I make
Cleats
can’t reachJust use
I’vetwo
got !this
this lightbulb? cool bucket ?
Hmmmm
Aluminum,
Electricity, and
Bare Feet.
Just Add Water !
And thedon’t
guy wondered
Why he got Fired??
need
no stinking
Well, Gee Iit’s
only
a small
chlorinejack
gas !leak
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Focused on the Wrong Thing
I Think.
I Think I am.
Therefore, I Am.
I Think?
Moody Blues
• Debates About Intelligence Are Interesting But They
Don’t Get You Much
• We in an Engineering Company Look at It From
the Practical Perspective
• See If We Can Make Some Money Out of It Along the Way!
• We Still Have to Stay in Business While We Are Figuring It
Out
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What Our Customers Really Want is…
• The Endstate Capability to Handle More and More
Complicated, Dynamic Situations for Their Product or
Service That Provide a Safe and Acceptable, Real Time
Solution With Minimal Human Involvement
• Whether You Call It Smart, Robust, Multiple Layers of
Contingency Management or Whatever Doesn’t Matter
DANTE II
– Increasing Capability with Increasing Autonomy Is What Most
Customers Ultimately Want
Personal Satellite
Assistant
The Line Between Automation,
Autonomy, Smartness, and
Intelligence Doesn’t Really Matter!
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Autonomous
Control
Level (ACL)
ChartAct
Observe
Decide
Orient
10
9
8
Group
Accomplishment
of Strategic goal with
No
Supervisory
Assistance
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Remotely
Piloted
Vehicles
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Autonomy Allocation
Problem Decomposition
1. Complexity Defines the Total Problem Solving Requirements (TPSR)
Examples: Program (X,Y)
100
Mission Complexity (Y)
U2 (10, 10) (GTAS)
B2 (20, 20)
F22 (50, 50)
UUV (10,10)
UCAR (70, 70)
Orbital Express (40, 40)
PTS (10, 80)
etc,..
Problem Solving Requirements
Environment Complexity (X)
100
The Combination of Mission and Environment Complexities
Determine the Magnitude of the “Total Problem Solving Requirements”
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Autonomy Allocation
Problem Decomposition
2. Who Does What,…When?
The Smaller the Arrow
the Higher the Chance
of Automating the
Solution and Increasing
the Autonomy of the
Platform/System
Human
100
Total Problem Solving
Requirement
• Mission and
environment
complexities
determine
the total problem
solving requirements
eg. The Mars Rover Boys
Spirit and Opportunity are
highly Autonomous
100
Platform/System
Network
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100
Level of Autonomy to Platform or System Is Both
Driven and Constrained by Customer Requirements
…and Bounded by Technology
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So, Can We Ever Create a
Hard Artificially Intelligent System?
• Answer:
Alas,……No
Make the World a
Little Better Along the Way!!
• But Who Cares??
We Can Still Make Them SMARTER !
It’s Still a Terrific Idea to Keep
Striving for Real (?) Artificial
Intelligence
If It Looks Like a Duck and Walks Like a ….
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Vaucanson’s Duck
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My Niece, Lauren Says
“I Love INCOSE This Much !!!”
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“THE COMPUTER IS CLAIMING ITS INTELLIGENCE
IS REAL, AND OURS IS ARTIFICIAL”
Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.
I Think.
I Think I am.
Therefore, I Am.
I Think?
Moody Blues
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