Transcript Online and other secondary data sources - AUEB e

Online and other secondary
data sources
International Marketing Research
Lecture 2
Type of secondary data
• Secondary data is information that has previously
been gathered by someone other than the researcher
and/or for some other purpose than the research
project at hand.
- Historical data are always secondary data
- Easy means of rapidly gaining some insights
- Very often is the only option
- Cheaper than collecting primary data
- In some cases are more accurate
• A part of secondary data, standardized data, is
collected especially for a set of information users with a
common need. Standardized data is both purposespecific and expensive, but still much cheaper than
each user collecting data independently.
Type of secondary data
Advantages
Disadvantages
- Quick way of obtaining data
- Collected for some other
purpose
- Low cost
- No control over data collection
- Less effort expended
- May not be very accurate
- Less time taken
- May not be reported in the
required form
- Sometimes more accurate than primary data
- May be outdated
- Some information can be obtained only from
secondary data
- May not meet data
requirements
- A number of assumptions have
to be made
Reliability of secondary data
To determine the reliability of secondary data,
marketing researchers must evaluate it. This is
done by answering the following five questions:
1
2
3
4
5
What was the purpose of the study?
Who collected the information?
What information was collected?
How was the information collected?
How consistent is the information with other sources?
Data collection with a specific
purpose in mind typical personal interviews
Primary
data sources
Internal
data sources
Data sources
-Sales reports
-Market share reports
-Marketing activities
-Cost information
-Sales force feedback
-Sales reps’ reports
-Customer - End-user feedback
-….
Internal
Data Warehouse
Internet
(electronic)
Secondary
data sources
Published data
Printed
-Private market research firms
(e.g. Euromonitor, Frost & Sullivan)
-Governments
-Industry associations
-Trade magazines / journals
-Article databases (e.g. Proquest)
-Websites of competitors
-Firms’ annual reports
-Newspaper
-Books
External
data sources
Standardized
sources of marketing
data
Sources of secondary data
-Consumer purchase panels
(GFK)
-Store audits (Store checks)
-Nielsen’s Television Index
-Web-traffic (monitoring
traffic on Web-sites)
….
Customer Information file
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Identification
Background
Sales, Profitability, cash flow and financial position
Market position
Suppliers
Pre-sales contact
Purchases, Frequency and Monetary Value
Decision makers, decision making process / Buying center, Purchase cycle
Customer’s buying criteria
Post-purchase behavior
Distribution channels
Pricing
Credit worthiness
….
Sources for external secondary data
Some indicative global data locators
• MSU-CIBER Web Site (ciber.msu.edu)
• University of Kansas International Business Resource Center Web Site
(www.ibrc.business.ku.edu)
• VIBES: Virtual International Business and Economic Sources Web Site
(www.libweb.uncc.edu/ref-bus/vibehome.htm)
• Business Information on the Internet
(www.rba.co.uk/sources/index.htm)
Sources for external secondary data
Macroeconomic data
• International Monetary Fund, United Nations and World Bank
• Human Development Report, UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, International Financial
Statistics, International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics, World Development Report,
Major Trade Trends in East Asia
•
•
•
•
EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database)
OECD (www.oecd.org)
The European Commission (www.europa.eu.int)
Numerous Government Sources
• E.g. the US Department of Commerce (www.stat-USA.gov) largest global commerce
and trade database
Sources for external secondary data
General Information
• Corporate Information (www.corporateinformation.com)
• Comfind
• Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals
Monthly / Annual Reports
• Report Gallery (www.reportgallery.com)
• Investor Relations Information Network (www.irin.com)
• Company Annual Reports Online (www.carol.co.uk)
• Markit
Sources for external secondary data
Commercial Data Sources
• The Economist Intelligence Unit (www.eiu.com)
• Euromonitor (www.euromonitor.com)
• ICAP
Other Data Sources: Country and Regional Guides
Periodicals, Newsletters, Indexing and Abstracting Services
Financial and Foreign Exchange Data
Sources for external secondary data
Marketing Data
• Demographic, economic, geographical, technological and
sociocultural characteristics ->->-> key indicators of market potential
or target market segments
Infrastructure Data
• Distribution systems and transportation network
• Communication infrastructure
Sources for external secondary data
Data providers - Service Organizations (e.g. banks, financial or credit institutions, advertising
agencies and marketing research organizations)
• Major international banks (e.g. HSBC, Citibank and Deutschebank).
• International Advertising Association and major international advertising agencies (such as
McCann World Group, BBDO, Grey Global, Young & Rubicam, J. Walter Thompson and Ogilvy &
Mather) services provided can be obtained from regional or country-specific sources.
• Marketing research organizations
•
•
•
•
New York chapter of the American Marketing Association (www.greenbook.org)
ESOMAR (www.esomar.org)
Market Research Society of the UK
South African Market Research Association.
• Major international research agencies (e.g. AC Nielsen, IMS, RI, Millward Brown and Taylor Nelson
Sofres)
• Other service providers: Dun & Bradstreet, Moodys, Phoenix consulting group, AWARE etc
Uses of Secondary Data
• Selecting different markets to evaluate for initial entry
• Estimating demand for a company’s products or services in
international markets
• Assessing market interconnectedness to guide resource deployment
across country markets or between and within regions
• Selecting new facility locations
• Competitive intelligence
Competitive Intelligence
The tasks of Competitive Intelligence can include the
following issues:
1 Who are our competitors?
2 How do we learn about our competitors? (How do we
gather competitor information?)
3 What are the strengths and weaknesses of our
competitors (competitor audit)?
4 What are the objectives and strategies of our
competitors?
5 What are the response patterns of our competitors?
6 How can we set up an organization for competitive
intelligence (CI)?
Stages of competitive development
Characteristics of the three stages of competitive development
Data
collection
Stage 3:
Formal
Competitor
intelligent
Stage 2:
Competitor sensitive
Informal/
formal
Applications
Anticipation
(looking
forward to)
Emulation of
competitor
practices
Organisation
Competitive Intelligence Manager
Part of
marketing
information
system
Systems for
managing
Intranet /
computer
based systems
Manual competitor
files (decentralized)
Stage 1:
Competitor aware
Informal
Development of competitive intelligence
Curiosity
None
None
Competitive intelligence
• Information from own staff and employees of competing companies
• Information from competitors’ customers
• Information from competitors’ suppliers
• Information from observing competitors or by analyzing physical
evidence
• Published material and public documents
• The web is a good source!
• Many stories about shadow teams
Using secondary data - Problems
• Accuracy of the data
• Many different sources report macroeconomic data
• Industrialized nations are likely to have higher level of accuracy
• Level of literacy also plays an important role
• Comparability of the data obtained from different countries
• The cost of buying a television in Germany would be classified as an
entertaining expense, whereas in the US as a furniture expense
Market Entry Decisions
Generalized Procedures
• Country Classification Schemes
• Degree of demographic and economic mobility (based on development and
industrialization, marketing orientation, communication, transportation,
organization of population, education and health)
• Domestic stability and cohesion (death from group violence, cultural
homogeneity, fragmentation, and national identity duration)
Market Entry Decisions
Generalized Procedures
• Country Classification Schemes
• Degree of demographic and economic mobility (based on development and
industrialization, marketing orientation, communication, transportation, organization
of population, education and health)
• Domestic stability and cohesion (death from group violence, cultural homogeneity,
fragmentation, and national identity duration)
• Major limitation of generalized classification schemes is that they are
based solely on macroeconomic data, social and political indicators and
implicitly assume that the same indicators are equally relevant for all
product markets and companies
Table 4.1
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Market Entry Decisions
• Multiple-factor Indexes
• Scores and ratings based on the scores for many different indicators,
which are a combination of quantitative data, business surveys and
expert opinions.
Market Entry Decisions
• Customized multistage models
Using secondary data for demand estimation
– Lead-lag analysis
• Use the time-series data from one country to project sales in other
countries.
• Assumption: the determinants of demand in the two countries are the same,
and the rate of diffusion to be the same
Lead–lag analysis of penetration of DVD players
Source: Hollensen:Global Marketing – A Decision-oriented Approach, © Pearson Education Limited
Figure 4.2(A) Lead and lag time relationships of diffusion
processes among four countries
Source: Takada and Jain, 1991.
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Figure 4.2(B) Lead and lag time relationships of diffusion
processes among four countries
Source: Takada and Jain, 1991.
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Figure 4.2(C) Lead and lag time relationships of diffusion
processes among four countries
Source: Takada and Jain, 1991.
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Figure 4.3
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Using secondary data for demand estimation
– Estimation by analogy
• A company wants to estimate demand for refrigerators in Germany. It
knows the market size in the UK. As nearly all households in both countries
have a refrigerator. Choosing the population size as the basis for the
analogy we have:
UK population: 60 m
German population: 82m
Refrigerators sold in UK 2002: 1.1m
Estimate for Germany: 82/60 X 1.1 = 1.5m
- Surrogate indicators: macro-economic indicators such as childbirths
- Econometric forecasting models using cross-sectional and time-series data
Using secondary data for demand estimation
– Time-series methods
• Where the industry or product market is already well developed and
historical sales data are available, procedures similar to those used in
the domestic market can be followed. For example, time-series, trend
or double exponential smoothing analysis can be used.
Using secondary data for demand estimation
– Other methods
Barometric Analysis
• Barometric procedures can also be applied to cross-sectional data to
predict likely demand. This assumes that if there is a direct
relationship between the consumption of a product or service and an
indicator in one country, the same relationship will hold in other
countries. This relationship can be assumed to hold either at the
aggregate level for the entire market, or for specific segments within
the market.
Figure 4.4
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Using secondary data for demand estimation
– Other methods
• Segment extrapolation is another type of barometric analysis.
Barometric procedures assume that certain gross indicators are
related to aggregate market potential. In some cases the factors
underlying demand differ from segment to segment. In other cases
the different segments simply have different rates of market
penetration.
• Diesel engines for small boats, for example, may have two potential markets,
pleasure craft and fishing boats. Estimating the demand for pleasure craft in a
country or region might be based on per capita disposable income as well as
information on navigable waterways. Demand for engines for fishing boats
should include information on the length of the coastline as well as estimates
of the annual fish haul.
Table 4.6
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Using secondary data for demand estimation
– Other methods
Cohort Analysis
• Refine segment extrapolation by looking at the dynamics underlying
the cohorts of consumers that comprise the segments.
• Cohorts are groups of consumers, typically stratified by age. The value
of cohort analysis is that it focuses on groups as their consumption
evolves over time.
• As cohorts are most typically defined in terms of age, the key issue is
whether consumption of a product or product category changes or
differs from one age group to another, changes over time and how
these trends affect projections of future demand.
Table 4.8
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Market Interconnectedness
• Interconnectedness of geographical markets at the macroeconomic, product
market or firm specific level
• Interconnectedness across product businesses.
• Markets are linked when they share common customers or competitors, have a
high volume of trade with each other, can be reached through common
distributors or media networks, or when actions in one market affect operations
in another.
• Where markets are closely linked, they should be treated as one unit for the purposes of
forecasting or demand estimation.
• Markets are similar where customers have the same tastes, interests or purchase
behavior, and where market environments are similar regarding, for example,
product or advertising regulation or media and distribution infrastructure.
• Where markets are similar, actions in one market will not necessarily affect results in another,
but demand estimates for one market, or relevant estimation parameters, may be
extrapolated from one market to another.
Table 4.9
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Market Interconnectedness
Product Market Linkages
• Country B with country A = (Exports to A + Imports from A) / (Total
exports of B + Total imports of B)
Table 4.10
C. Samuel Craig & Susan P. Douglas, International Marketing Research, Third Edition
©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Market entry decisions at
Monitoring Systems
Example of using internet as information source
CASE: Monitoring Systems Ltd.
The main objectives of Monotoring Systems Ltd. is:
• to select the most attractive international country for the
company (international market selection)
• to segment the chosen market as the basis for choosing
targeting the most attractive segments (micro-segmentation)
Figure 2.4
Market growth of installed wind turbines in Germany
Source: Ender (2004), 9
Total number of turbines (WEA), installed MW and average capacity
(kW/turbine) (end of 2003)
Figure 2.5
Source: Ender (2004), 11
Market shares of wind turbine makers in Germany
-Only 2003 (above)
-Accumulated since 1982
Figure 2.6
Source: Ender (2004), 16
Table 2.4
Regional distribution of market shares
Source: Ender (2004), 17
Target market:
Bundesländer
‘New’ installed Wind
turbines 2003
(OEM-market)
(from Table 2.3)
Total number of
existing wind turbines
(December 31, 2003)
(‘After-Installation
market’)
Niedersachsen
381
3,982
Brandenburg
339
1,556
Sachsen-Anhalt
164
1,335
Nordrhein-Westfalen
279
2,125
Schleswig-Holstein
139
2,612
Top 5 ‘Wind Energy’
Bundesländer
1,302
11,610
Total Germany
1,624
15,371
% Top 5 ‘Wind Energy’
Bundesländer / Total
Germany
80%
75%
Please note that these figures: 381, 164, 1,302, 1,624, 15,371 are the correct ones and not the ones mentioned in
the book’s Table 2.5, p.41
Table 2.5
Summary of target market for Monitoring Systems
Monitoring Systems – Implications for future marketing
activities
• On the OEM-market where the monitoring system is sold as an
integrated part of the WT, MS should concentrate on the
following WT manufacturers.
• Enercon
• Vestas (including Micon from May 2004)
• On the after-installation market, MS Ltd. should concentrate
on the northern part of Germany. 80% of MS Ltd.’s market is
concentrated in five northern Bundesländer.