Transcript BA635 Current Issues in Marketing

Let’s get right to it….
Top 10
Forecasts,
2008
Why bother with the future
"If you think that you
can run an
organization in the
next 10 years…
… as you've run it in
the past 10 years…
you're out of your
mind."
CEO, Coca Cola
“When the rate
of change outside
your company
exceeds the rate
of change inside
your company,
disaster is
imminent”
Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble
Looking to the future:
common mistakes

Making predictions rather than
attaching probabilities to
possibilities

Simply extrapolating current
trends

Thinking of only one future
“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach
ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
Marshall McLuhan
We look at the present through a
rear view mirror”
Looking to the future:
common mistakes
People consistently
Overestimate the effect of
short term change
& Underestimate the effect of
long term change.
Ian Morrison,
former president of the Institute for the Future
Effective Forecasting - The
Desired vs The Likely
The best way to predict the future is to
invent it–
Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
Change how you “C” things!
R
EACTIVE
C
R EATI V E
How best to prepare for the future
The point is not so
much to predict
“the” future…
 but to prepare for
various
contingencies
 Based on the
logical extension
of established
trends

Some things are clear-Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
80%
70%
% 60%
o
f 50%
40%
G 30%
N
P 20%
10%
0%
1850
1950
2050
How best to think about the future

Think of the drivers of
change

Use the drivers to imagine
different scenarios of the
future

Imagine perhaps three; each
should be plausible but
different

Extrapolate back from those
future scenarios to think
about what to do now to
prepare
What “Drivers” Have
We Observed?
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TechnoSphere
InfoSphere
SocioSphere
PsychoSphere
Bio & PowerSpheres
What occurred in past few
decades to precipitate a
paradigm shift in Marketing…

From product to customer
centered

From mass to micro strategy

From customer acquisition to
retention

From regarding marketing as a
function to envisioning it as a
philosophy
 Enabled
by Technologically
 Precipitated by Globalization
 Necessitated by Consumers
technology convergence is fueling
a new economy
Computing Communication
Technologies Technologies
Content
Technologies
The resulting Techno/Info-sphere is redefining the business landscape for the 21st
century
CONVERGENT
TECHNOLOGY
Future
Marketing
Environment
Past
Marketing
Environment
NONCONVERGENT
TECHNOLOGIES
TechnoSphere
Drivers
Ubiquitous- Imbedded
Intelligence
Information technology will
transform our day-to-day
lives.

"The big trends - are the
availability of cheap
sensors that provide
digital data, cheap
computing power and
ubiquitous connectivity the ability to connect to
networks,"
 by 2020 everything large
enough to carry a
microchip probably will,
and from there the
possibilities are endless.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
Imbedded
intelligence
& low-cost
omnipresent
bandwidth
3G videophones
w/ broadband
– 2 meg
per second –
AI Enhanced
PDA devices
w/ speech
recognition &
avatars
RFID –
everywhere &
in everything
 Enabled
by Technologically
 Precipitated by Globalization
 Necessitated by Consumers
After more than a
century of electric
technology, we have
extended our central
nervous system in a
global embrace,
abolishing both space &
time”
-Marshall McLuhan,
Understanding Media- 1955
Rise of the “Global Village”
… not just the
“shrinking” of time &
space
The new electronic
media have
transcended time &
space w/ “virtual
mobility”
Borders have become meaningless
The entire
globe is
now tied
together as a
single
community
operating
24/7/365
Trans-National*
Cross-Cultural
High Speed/ Low
Cost
Transportation &
Communication
The Compunications Driver
The further, faster,
easier, cheaper & more
frequent people are able
to travel &
communicate…
the greater the amount
of interaction &
influence
The greater the degree
of Globalization
 Enabled
by Technologically
 Precipitated by Globalization
 Necessitated by Consumers
Consumer values are
fragmenting
Extreme shifts in:
21st Century
Fragmented Consumers
% of population
% of population
20th Century
Homogenous Consumers Age
Wealth
Ethnicity
Culture
Lifestage
patterns
Household
composition
Value
systems
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
X+ generation=
techno-savvy
accessing information whenever &
wherever they want it
Product
knowledge
Third-party commentary
Ubiquitous networking
Next-generation
mobile devices
Advanced infomediaries
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
& Info Savvy
Blocking Out,
Shutting Down
Overexposed & “on” to
marketing
 Ignore irrelevant, lowvalue messages
 Actively block
unsolicited
communications

Source: (1) GMA Forum, “Do We Have a Crisis in Brand Management,” Q3 2003; (2) Forrester Research,
“Privacy for Sale,” 11 Jun 02; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
Becoming more selfcentered & Home
centered
Becoming more
complex--age,
sex & income
reversals
Are less brand
loyal
More connected &
more informed
Today’s
Consumers
Have less time &
more choices
Seeking new/ heightened
sensation & experiences
Have lower
attention spans &
higher
expectations
Are living &
shopping more for
today…
Less long range
planning
Preparing for the Future:
A Quick N’ Dirty
Environmental Scan
The "global brain”
is beginning to
emerge
• “By 2015, desktop operating systems will
be largely irrelevant.
•The Web will be the only OS worth coding
for.
• It won't matter what device you use, as long
as it runs on the Web OS.
•You will reach the same distributed
computer whether you log on via phone, PDA,
laptop, or HDTV”
We are the web—Kevin Kelly-Wired
magazine-August 2005
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Each time we forge a link between words, we teach it an idea…. That
massive cross-referencing is how brains think and remember.
What will most surprise us is how dependent we will be on what the
Machine knows - about us and about what we want to know.
We already find it easier to Google something a second or third time
rather than remember it ourselves.
The more we teach this megacomputer, the more it will assume
responsibility for our knowing. It will become our memory. Then it will
become our identity.
The Singularity is
Near
Within a quarter
century,
nonbiological
intelligence will
match the range
and subtlety of
human intelligence
Age of Silicon
is at an end!
rise of…atomic &
molecular computers
quantum computers
nanotechnology
optical computers
DNA computers–or even a
“computer in a pen”
Health #1
More Eco-conscious
More Concerned
w/ Corporate
citizenship
Very tech savvy
Tomorrows
Consumers
Expect immediate
personalized
attention
High levels
dissatisfaction w/
retailing
70% music &
books bought
online
shopping more on
impulse…
Living/ Growing up in the Global Village
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Cross- generations
Global- PsychoCross- cultural
Spheric
Cross- mediated experiences Schizophrenia
Emergence of an inter:
•National
•Cultural
•Changeable workforce
Multi-National
Commercialization of
Public Sector Services
The De-Definition of
American
Some things are clear-Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
80%
70%
%
60%
o
f 50%
40%
G 30%
N
P 20%
10%
0%
1850
1950
2050
Evolving Now into Just One Big Market:
The Global Economy
… the increasing
tendency of economies
around the world to
interact w/ one
another as one market
instead of many
national markets
For US- Presently about 1/3 of profits and 1/5 of
economic growth are related to global business
The Global
Economy
The Global
Village
The Global
Corporation
•Growing divergence between those employed in highly skilled, highly paid
professions, and those at the bottom .. The
economy of work.. will
be increasingly hourglass-shaped.
"At the top end of the jobs hierarchy, people are likely to enjoy substantial
discretion over their hours, places and patterns of working time…
•Outsourcing, … will continue. Reservation agents, computer
programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs that
depend, in part, on an ability to master repetitive tasks performed on a computer will have been relocated abroad. "Only the customer-facing jobs will be left,"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
Networking is critical in building
competency & competitiveness
2nd Wave
PowerSphere~Collapse

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"As the Second Wave produced a mass
society, the Third Wave de-massifies
us,………. moving the entire social system to
a much higher level of diversity &
complexity.
This revolutionary process, much like the
biological differentiation that occurs in
evolution, helps explain one of today's most
noted political phenomena - the collapse of
consensus."
Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 408
What, then, happens to the
very notion of
'representative democracy?'

Under the convergence of speed & diversity,
can any constituency can be "represented?"

In a mass industrial society, when people and
their needs were fairly uniform and basic,
consensus was an attainable goal.

In a de-massified society, we not only lack
national purpose, we also lack regional,
statewide, or city-wide purpose. ...
The elected representative cannot
represent the general will for the simple
reason that there is none

the collapse of consensus
In 2nd Wave society a
political leader could glue
together half a dozen major
blocs, as Roosevelt did in
1932, and expect the
resulting coalition to
remain locked in position
for many years.
Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 410
“In all likelihood it will require
the radical overhaul –or even
scraping-of:
the collapse of
consensus

Today it is necessary to
plug together hundreds,
even thousands, of tiny,
short-lived special interest
groups… that cleave
together just long enough to
elect a president, then break
apart again the day after the
election, leaving him
without a base of support
for his programs
.. all the unwieldy & unworkable
apparatus of supposedly
representative governments”…
 Toffler-
The
rd
3
Wave
“The onward march of individualism either through choice or fate - is still probably
the major force shaping our world”
The central question is: Will the slow
collapse of institutions that have been
vehicles for our shared identity mean
collapse of identity itself?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
 Frontline-
The Persuaders
The Near Future:
Marketing
Considerations
“In
today
already
walks
tomorrow.”
Friedrich von Schiller
Marketing’s Evolution Mirrors
Civilization’s….

From 2nd wave
Manufacturing Mentality
 To 3rd Wave Information &
Relationship Mgt. Process
Welcome to
the Future
Real
time data mining—
conducted ‘round the world
24/7/365
On-going
Consumer input &
generated content
Marketing
messages
constructed “on the fly”-and
delived thru integrated &
individualized
communication channels…

Analytical
marketing
skills and
processes
will be
paramount
Career Competencies Needed by
New -Marketers…
Traditional Skills
 Sales mgt
 Advertising mgt
 Sales promotion
mgt
 Marketing
research
 Pricing
PLUS:

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Customer relationship
management (CRM)
Partner relationship
management (PRM)
Marketing Resource Mgt.:
Database Mgt & Data-mining
 Lifetime Profitability
analysis by segment,
customer, channel
Integrated marketing
communications; Public
relations -(including event &
cause sponsorship, buzz
marketing)
From Decision Support to Decision
Automation: A 2020 Vision
Randolph E. Bucklin, Donald R. Lehmann, and John D. C. Little;


In coming decades, a
growing proportion of
marketing decisions will
be automated by evermore-powerful
combinations of data,
models, and
computers.
New age of marketing
decision support will
usher in an era of
decision automation.
Marketing Functionality
User Interface
Workflow
Collaboration
Content
Management
Marketing Context
Marketing Resource Mgt
& Most
Significantly:
Decision Support
& Automation
Systems- will be
implemented
within the
consumer as well
as business
environments--
Living Tomorrow –

Got Milk?

Got Pants?

Watching TV

Washing Clothes

Going to the
Bathroom

Going to Bed