Transcript Document

Astrology
2/18/1996
…lots and lots and lots of math.
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Goals
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What is science?
How does science work?
Is astrology a science?
Why should we care?
Is science just another belief?
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A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
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Science as a tool
• Science is a tool for answering why and how.
• “I have high cholesterol, what should I do?”
– Take cholesterol lowering medication.
– Consult my astrologer.
– Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat.
• How do you choose what to do?
• What is your criteria for the “best” solution?
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Tests and Theories
• Science is a tool for telling you what works!
• How do you know if your theory (idea,
model, hypothesis) is right?
– You can test it!
– I make a claim, you can test that too.
• A scientific theory must do two things:
– Explain what is seen.
– Predict what will happen in the future.
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The Scientific Method
1. Observe an event.
2. Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a
prediction.
model
3. Test the prediction.
4. Observe the result.
5. Revise the hypothesis.
test
6. Repeat as needed.
7. A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific
Theory.
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Medical Science
Scientific Method
High Cholesterol
Observation
Patient has high cholesterol
Hypothesis
(prediction)
Certain chemicals may dissolve
cholesterol deposits.
Test
Give 100 patients these chemicals,
give 100 patients placebo.
Observe result
Same number lower their
cholesterol as placebo patients.
Revise hypothesis? Try different combo of chemicals.
New test?
Scientific Theory
Re-run medical test. Observe
results.
Lipitor reduces cholesterol.
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Everyday Science
Scientific Method
Observation
Making Spaghetti Sauce
Spaghetti sauce should be red.
Hypothesis (prediction) Maybe try a tomato sauce.
Test
Heat pot of tomato sauce.
Observe result
Taste the sauce - bland.
Revise hypothesis?
Use tomato sauce and garlic!
New test?
Add garlic, taste - not so bland.
Scientific Theory
The Final Recipe.
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A Theory’s Power
• A successful theory means:
– Applies to the future (the prediction)
– You don’t have to keep doing the test.
• Example:
– Lipitor: No more trials
– Recipe: No more trial and error
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Reproducibility
• Anyone must be able to reproduce the claims
of your result.
– Cookbooks
• (In)Famous examples:
– Cold Fusion
– CERN faster than light neutrinos
• The conservative nature of Science.
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Theories
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So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis.
All hypotheses make predictions.
All theories make predictions.
All theories can be tested.
Result: Any scientific theory is subject to
change as our ability to make tests, or make
observations of a test’s results, improves with
time.
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Recap: Theories, Guesses, Laws
• What does the word “Theory” mean to you?
“A conjecture; guess” (Webster’s Dictionary)
• Does it mean the same to a scientist?
“A model which has been born out by repeated
tests and observation.”
• Is a Theory less than a Law?
“Evolution is just a theory, it is not a fact.”
• Do Theories “grow up” to be Laws?
“Einstein’s Theory of Relativity”
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Concept Question
• Which of these statements is true.
a. A theory becomes a Law after it has been proven
correct.
b. A theory becomes a Law if it is supported by the results
of enough experiments.
c. A Law that is refuted by experimental results becomes
just a theory.
d. The movement of the Earth around the Sun and the
formation of the Universe in the Big Bang are theories.
e. We should withhold judgments on theories until they
become Laws.
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Limitations of Science
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Key to the scientific method is The Test.
Q: What can and cannot be tested?
Q: What is and is not reproducible?
A: Magic, the Divine, matters of faith cannot be
tested and are not reproducible.
• Result:
1. Science is the search for natural or material explanations to
the Universe.
2. Science is limited to those questions of which natural or
material explanations can be applied.
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Concept Question
Which of the following is NOT a hallmark of
science?
a.
A scientific theory is built on logic and common sense
to explain observed phenomena.
b. Science seeks explanations for observable phenomena
using natural causes.
c. Science makes progress by testing models that explain
observations as simply as possible.
d. A scientific model makes testable predictions about
natural phenomena and is revised or abandoned if the
predictions do not agree with observations.
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Non-scientific Theories
• Make no predictions
• Un-testable
• Can’t be falsified
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Non-scientific Theories
• Cholesterol too high?  Aliens are clogging
your arteries with invisible probes.
• Spaghetti is bland?  You were meant to eat
bland food.
• Cholesterol too high?  Gods must be angry.
• Spaghetti is bland?  At the instant of
tasting, tongue is transported to alternate
dimension where all flavors are rendered
nullified. Happens instantaneously.
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Non-scientific Theories
Viking Orbiter (1976)
Mars Global Surveyor (1998)
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Falsification
• A real Scientific Theory tells you what
observations are necessary to falsify it.
– Not so proponents of:
• Face on Mars
• Moon Hoax
• Astrologers
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Concept Question
What are some of the common characteristics of
pseudoscience?
a.
It explains things people care about that may not have easy
explanations.
b. It is based on postdiction not prediction. It explains after the fact.
c. If it fails, there is always an excuse–the theory is not discarded.
d. Uses scientific-sounding jargon incorrectly (e.g., energy flows….).
e. all of the above.
© 2010 Pearson
Education, Inc.
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Astrology
• The date, time, (and place) of birth affect:
– Your personality
– Your actions
– Events that will affect your life
• Horoscopes appear in most papers.
• Millions of people read them daily.
http://www.azcentral.com/ent/horoscopes/astrology101.html
http://astrology.about.com/od/basicsofastrology/
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Astrology
• Like other “-ologies”, is it a science?
– Explain what is seen?
– Make predictions?
• Does it work?
• What test would falsify astrology?
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Does Astrology Work?
• Does it pass the test?
• Does it work better than chance?
• Does it matter?
“One of the other prime uses of astrology is in connection with the
basic psychology of children and recognizing in children, at an early
age, a basis for later psychological difficulties. The horoscope is
perhaps the best method to reveal these tendencies while the child is
still in infancy. When parents know from the beginning where the seeds
of difficulties lie in the child's life, early care and training might
mitigate much later unhappiness.”
- The Cosmic Palette: Astrology 101 by Haizen Paige
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Science vs. Astrology
• Scientists are skeptical of astrology because:
a. It takes power out of the hands of scientists.
b. It can’t be tested.
c. It has failed when tested.
d.It proposes forces that are non-physical.
e. It threatens our belief in a knowable universe.
• But no one believes astrology so who cares?
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Astrology and the President
(TIME,
MayWhite
16, 1988)
-- Chief of Staff, Donald] Regan and
“[Former
House
“The
First
Lady
dabbled in astrology
others
make
a compelling
case thatasinfar1986 and 1987
back
as 1967. In
1981 [Joan]
Quigley made
astrological
influence
dramatically
reduced the
Nancy
[Reagan]
a believer ….at
And
from
then by keeping
presidency's
effectiveness,
least
partly,
on, no presidential public appearance was
Ronald
Reagan
wraps
forTo
much
slated
without
theunder
Friend's
say-so.
this of the time.
Nancy's
intrusions
in the scheduling
process, Regan said
day,
Nancy's
Friend continues
to influence
in an
interview
with TIME
lastReaganweek, ‘began to interfere
the
President's
schedule.
For the
Gorbachev
Washington
summit,
cast the
with the normal
conduct
of theshe
presidency.’”
charts
of both
and determined
(TIME,
Maymen
16, 1988)
that 2 p.m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most propitious moment
for them to sign the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty.
At Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built around that
hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit, Gorbachev's chart
(he is a Pisces) has been recast alongside Reagan's
(Aquarius).”
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Homework #3
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Wednesday we will talk about observing projects.
Due Friday 20-Jan:
Read B4
Do Chapter 4 Quick Quiz on Pearson website.
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