Transcript Global warming slides - Medical and Public Health Law Site

EARTH’s ATMOSPHERE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE:
Nitrogen (N2)
Oxygen (O2)
Water vapor (H2O)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Other gases
78%
21%
~1%
0.035%
near zero
Sea Level
1 atm.
70°F
Mile-High
83% atm. 52°F
14,000 ft
1/2 atm.
12°F
UPPER ATMOSPHERE:
Space Shuttle, satellites
Millionth Atmosphere
Aurora
Meteors
Thousandth Atmosphere
Ozone layer
Airplanes, Mt. Everest
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE CHANGES
CAUSED BY HUMAN GAS PRODUCTION
OZONE DEPLETION
GLOBAL WARMING
Cause
Halogen compounds released into air,
diffuse to stratosphere, catalytically
destroy ozone layer
CO2 (and methane) released into air,
greenhouse effect heats air, changes climate
Sources
Hair sprays, refrigerants,…
Fossil fuel burning, deforestation
Confidence
Extremely high
Extremely high
Industry
reaction
Dupont made long-sustained vile smear
campaigns
Exxon and other gas companies making longsustained attacks on existence of global
warming
Latency time
~Half a century
Decades
If allowed to
go to
extreme
Ozone layer goes to half of depth
worldwide, Solar far-UV light gets to
surface, death of food-chain top,
bottom, and middle
World heats up by perhaps 10°F, icecaps all
melt, majority of world’s population looses
homes, frequent high-intensity hurricanes,
massive droughts affect half of world, deaths
in the billions
Ease of
solution
Easy; ban CFCs, manufacture
substitutes instead
Hard; too many people in world, all wanting
to burn fossil fuels to achieve high living
standard
OZONE LAYER
Ozone absorbing Solar
UV light is what heats up
the stratosphere
Without the ozone layer, all
solar far-UV light would get to
ground causing fast cancer and
germicide killing of many
things from top-to-bottom of
food chain.
OZONE LAYER
HOW TO GET RID OF THE OZONE
1973: Planetary Astronomer working on the atmosphere of Venus
realizes that chlorine will ‘kill’ ozone, and would do so on Earth
1973: Lovelock measures CFCs, finds that all mankind’s production still
in the atmosphere
1974: Rowland & Molina put together that manmade CFCs will go to
stratosphere, release chlorine, and kill ozone
1974-1978: Rowland & Molina work confirmed, tested, extended;
result became highly confident
1995: Rowland & Molina get Nobel Prize
OZONE ‘DEBATE’
If the ozone layer gets thinner by half over most of the Earth,
then there will be massive extinctions and die-offs
DuPONT put massive
amounts of money into
a smear campaign
against Rowland & Molina
OZONE HOLE
MONTREAL
PROTOCOLS
Put severe limits on CFC production
Open for signature in 1987
In force in 1989
189 Nations ratified protocols
Updates in 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1999
UN Sec.Gen Kofi Annan: "Perhaps the single most
successful international agreement to date..."
Summary of Montreal Protocol Control Measures
Ozone Depleting Substances
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
Halons
Carbon tetrachloride
Methyl chloroform
HCFCs
HBFCs
Methyl bromide
Developed Countries
Phased out end of 1995
Phased out end of 1993
Phased out end of 1995
Phased out end of 1995
Freeze from beginning of 1996
35% reduction by 2004
65% reduction by 2010
90% reduction by 2015
Total phase out by 2020
Phased out end of 1995
Freeze in 1995 at 1991 level
25% reduction by 1999
50% reduction by 2001
70% reduction by 2000
Total phase out by 2005
Developing Countries
Total phase out by 2010
Total phase out by 2010
Total phase out by 2010
Total phase out by 2015
Freeze in 2016
at 2015 base level
Total phase out by 2040
Phased out end of 1995
Freeze in 2002 at average
1995-1998 base level
20% reduction by 2005 e
Total phase out by 2015
CURRENT SITUATION
DuPONT has been earning
massive profits from making
CFC replacements
Ozone killers are now falling;
Our atmosphere will have
recovered in ~50 years.
GLOBAL WARMING
2009
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Global Warming is an observed fact, and everyone agrees that it is so
Completely unprecedented throughout all known history of Earth
Earth has warmed by 1.4°F in last century
It has been accelerating in the last 35 years
AURORA
AURORA OCCUR IN AN
ARC AROUND THE
MAGNETIC POLE
AURORAL ARCS ON SATURN
SOLAR FLARE SPEWS OUT CHARGED PARTICLES, THESE
COME TO EARTH, SPIRAL DOWN MAGNETIC FIELD LINES,
MAKE ATMOSPHERE ‘FLOURESCE’ CAUSING AURORA
AURORA VIEWED FROM SPACE SHUTTLE
[Note Orion in background]
SOLAR FLARES
SCREW UP RADIO
COMMUNICATIONS
FLARES INDUCE HIGH VOLTAGES IN POWER
GRIDS, FRY CIRCUITS, CAUSE BLACKOUTS
FLARES ‘FRY’ SATELLITE
ELECTRONICS
LITTLE ICE AGE
2009
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GOOD CONNECTION BETWEEN
LONG-TERM SOLAR ACTIVITY
AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURES
IS GLOBAL
WARMING
CAUSED BY
INCREASING
SOLAR
ACTIVITY??
• Reasonably good correlation
between solar activity and world
temperature from 1800’s to ~1980
• A reasonable conclusion is that the
warming from 1800’s to ~1980 is
dominated by rising solar activity
BUT GLOBAL WARMING SINCE ~1980
CANNOT BE DUE TO INCREASED
SOLAR ACTIVITY
• Global Warming is rising fast since
1980
• Solar activity has been holding
steady or falling since 1980
==> The fast-rising and unprecedented
Global Warming is not due to solar
activity
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse gases:
CO2, methane, nitrous oxides
Transparent in optical
Opaque in infrared
Greenhouse effect:
Atmosphere heated in optical
max=0.0029/5700°=0.5microns
Atmosphere cools in infrared
max=0.0029/280°=10microns
Gases stop surface from cooling
INCREASING CO2 HOTTER EARTH
CO2 concentration
increased by 35%
in last century
Detailed calculations
prove that this
increase in CO2 is
responsible for the
observed global
warming since 1970’s
100,000 year
CO2 concentration
Temperature
Global temperature
follows CO2
concentration
SCIENTISTS HAVE A UNIVERSAL
CONSENSUS THAT GLOBAL
WARMING IS REAL, LARGE, AND
CAUSED BY HUMANS
AMERICAN SCIENCE
ORGANIZATIONS:
INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE
ORGANIZATIONS:
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American Meteorological Society
American Astronomical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Physics Society
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Geological Society of America
American Chemical Society
American Institute of Physics
American Medical Association
American Statistical Association
National Academy of Science
National Research Council
World Meteorological Organization
International Astronomical Union
European Geosciences Union
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
World Health Organization
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Network of African Science Academies
National science academies of:
US, Russia, UK, Germany, Japan, Canada, France, Brazil,
Italy, India, China, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, …
PROJECTED TEMPERATURE RISES:
HEAT WAVE PROBLEMS
• 40,000 deaths by heat wave in western Europe in 2003
• 15,000 deaths by heat wave in Russia this summer
INCREASED INTENSITY OF
HURRICANES
• Global warming causes the sea temperatures to rise, hurricanes get their energy from
the hot ocean surface, so hotter oceans mean more intense hurricanes
• The intensity of hurricanes will rise, not their frequency
• Here in Louisiana, we have been living through the proof:
– 1960-2004 (44 yrs) Camille (1969)
Betsy (1965)
– 2004-2010 (6 yrs)
Katrina (2005)
Rita (2005)
Gustav (2008)
Ike (2008)
SEA LEVEL RISING
• Heating up of water (by global warming) causes water to expand, raising sea levels
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(currently, this is the dominant effect)
• Melting of the Greenland and Antarctic icecaps raises sea levels
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(melting of floating polar sea ice does not raise sea levels)
• Thermal inertia in icecaps is huge  takes centuries to melt the icecaps
• 21st century sea level rise is expected to be 1.5-4 feet
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(disastrous for many island nations, low coastal areas, and anyone near the ocean)
• If all icecaps melted (will take >1000 years), ‘only’ 250 feet sea level rise
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(majority of world’s population becomes homeless)
BUT THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THAT
THE CLIMATE WILL CHANGE,
CAUSING DROUGHTS IN MANY
PLACES, FLOODING IN OTHERS
• Monsoon rains in Pakistan last month, all-time worst,
1400 die in floods, 13,000,000 people displaced
• All Australia will become permanent severe drought,
all farming & livestock raising will be lost
• Sub-Sahara Africa; drought worsens and extends
EFFECTS OF GREENHOUSE GASES
OVER YOUR LIFETIMES
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Average temperature rise of 3°-10°F
Ocean level raises 1.5-4 feet
Droughts in some regions
Greatly increased rain in other regions
FOR LOUISIANA:
• Lose ~4000 sq.miles of land
• Increased intensity of hurricanes
• 5°-10° hotter summers
GLOBAL WARMING CONCLUSIONS
• The world is heating up fast,
now at a rate of 1°F per 25 years
• Global warming is certainly caused by man-made
greenhouse gases
(mainly from burning fossil fuels and deforestation)
• In your lifetimes; 4°-10°F warming, 1.5-4 feet sea level rise,
high intensity hurricanes, massive droughts around world…
• The science is sure and confident, but, what-to-do about
these effects is a political-social question…