Transcript Long and medium term goals in molecular nanotechnology

Nanotechnology
and Meaning
Ralph C. Merkle
www.merkle.com
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Seventh Foresight Conference
on Molecular Nanotechnology
October 15 -17, 1999
Santa Clara, CA
www.foresight.org/Conferences
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Three historical trends
in manufacturing
• More flexible
• More precise
• Less expensive
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Approaching the limit:
nanotechnology
• Fabricate most structures consistent
with physical law
• Get essentially every atom in the right
place
• Inexpensive manufacturing costs
(~10-50 cents/kilogram)
http://nano.xerox.com/nano
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It matters how atoms
are arranged
• Coal
• Sand
Diamonds
Computer chips
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Today’s manufacturing
methods move atoms in great
thundering statistical herds
•
•
•
•
•
Casting
Grinding
Mixing
Lithography
…..
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A modern manufacturing facility
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Possible
arrangements of
atoms
.
What we can make today
(not to scale)
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The goal:
a healthy bite.
.
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Two more
fundamental ideas
• Self replication for low cost
• Positional assembly of
molecular parts
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Complexity of self
replicating systems (bits)
Von Neumann's universal constructorabout 500,000
Internet worm (Robert Morris, Jr., 1988)
500,000
Mycoplasma capricolum
1,600,000
E. Coli
9,278,442
Drexler's assembler
100,000,000
Human
6,400,000,000
NASA Lunar
Manufacturing Facility
over 100,000,000,000
http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/selfRep.html
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Self replication can be very
low cost
• Potatoes, lumber, wheat and other
agricultural products are often roughly a
dollar per kilogram.
• Nanotechnology will let us make almost any
product for about a dollar per kilogram,
independent of complexity. (Design costs,
licensing costs, etc. not included)
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Positional assembly of
molecular parts is new
• Self assembly: stir together molecular parts
that spontaneously self assemble into desired
structures.
• Positional assembly: put molecular parts
exactly where we want them, vastly
increasing the range of molecular structures
we can make.
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Moving molecules with an SPM
Gimzewski, IBM Zurich
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A proposal for a molecular
positional device
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Classical uncertainty
kbT
 
k
2
σ:
k:
kb:
T:
RMS positional error
restoring force
Boltzmann’s constant
temperature
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A numerical example of
classical uncertainty
kbT
 
k
2
σ:
k:
kb:
T:
0.02 nm (0.2 Å)
10 N/m
1.38 x 10-23 J/K
300 K
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If we can make
whatever we want
what
do we want
to make?
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Diamond Physical Properties
Diamond’s value Comments
Property
Chemical reactivity
Hardness (kg/mm2)
Thermal conductivity (W/cm-K)
Tensile strength (pascals)
Compressive strength (pascals)
Band gap (ev)
Resistivity (W-cm)
Density (gm/cm3)
Thermal Expansion Coeff (K-1)
Refractive index
Coeff. of Friction
Extremely low
9000
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3.5 x 109 (natural)
1011 (natural)
5.5
1016 (natural)
3.51
0.8 x 10-6
2.41 @ 590 nm
0.05 (dry)
CBN: 4500 SiC: 4000
Ag: 4.3 Cu: 4.0
1011 (theoretical)
5 x 1011 (theoretical)
Si: 1.1 GaAs: 1.4
SiO2: 0.5 x 10-6
Glass: 1.4 - 1.8
Teflon: 0.05
Source: Crystallume
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A hydrocarbon bearing
(theoretical)
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A bearing made of H, C, N, O,
and S. The shaft has 17 fold
symmetry, the sleeve 23
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Memory probe
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Neon pump
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A planetary gear
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Fine motion controller
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Drexler’s assembler
http://www.foresight.org/UTF/Unbound_LBW/chapt_6.html
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Today
Overview of the
development of
nanotechnology
Produc
Products
Core molecular
Products
Products
manufacturing
Products
capabilities
Products Products
Products
Products
Products Products
Products Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Produc
Products
Products Products
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Products
The impact of
nanotechnology
depends on what’s being
made
• Computers,
memory, displays
•
•
•
•
Space Exploration
Medicine
Military
Energy, Transportation, etc.
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Displays
• Molecular machines smaller than a
wavelength of light will let us build
holographic displays that reconstruct
the entire wave front of a light wave
• It will be like looking through a window
into another world
• Covering walls, ceilings and floor would
immerse us in another reality
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Computer generated reality
• Vast computational power will be
needed to model a 3-D “reality” in real
time and generate the full optical
wavefront (ten trillion samples per
square meter every 10 milliseconds)
• Nanotechnology will give us vast
computational power
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Powerful computers
• In the future we’ll pack more computing
power into a sugar cube than the sum total of
all the computer power that exists in the world
today
• We’ll be able to store more than 1021 bits in
the same volume
• Or more than a billion Pentiums operating in
parallel
• Powerful enough to run Windows 2015
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Easier methods?
• Optic nerve
– has ~1,000,000 nerves
– can carry only a few megabytes/sec
• Human brain
– 1013 to 1016 operations/sec
• A sugar cube computer
– over 1018 operations/sec
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Easier alternatives
• Track eye location, generate only that
portion of the wavefront actually seen
(which is also low power)
• Directly stimulate the retina
• Directly stimulate the optic nerves
(involves implantable nanodevices)
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Swallowing the surgeon
...it would be interesting in surgery if you could swallow
the surgeon. You put the mechanical surgeon inside
the blood vessel and it goes into the heart and “looks”
around.
...
Other small machines might be
permananetly incorporated in the body to assist some
inadequately-functioning organ.
Richard P. Feynman, 1959
Nobel Prize for Physics, 1965
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Mitochondrion
Molecular bearing
20 nm scale bar
Ribosome
Molecular computer
(4-bit) + peripherals
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“Typical” cell
Mitochondrion
Molecular computer
+ peripherals
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Medical nanodevice
power and signal
• Oxygen/glucose fuel cells can be scaled
to molecular size and provide electric
power, producing H2O and C02
• Megahertz acoustic signals are safe
and can transmit data to devices that
are tens of nanometers in size
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Resting potential: ~-0.65 volts
Nerve cell
membrane
Acoustically activated
nanodevice (large)
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An alternative to displays
• Direct stimulation of human nerve cells
via nanodevices will be feasible
• High-bandwidth externally derived input,
augmenting or replacing ordinary input
from the eye, ear, nose, skin, etc.
• Safe for long term use if desired
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Nanomedicine Volume I
• A comprehensive survey of medical
applications of nanotechnology
• Extensive technical analysis
• Volumes II, III and popular book planned
• Author: Robert Freitas
• http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine
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Types of medical
treatment
• Surgery:
intelligent guidance, crude tools
• Drugs:
no intelligence, molecular precision
• Medical nanodevices:
intelligent guidance, molecular
precision
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A revolution in medicine
• Today, loss of cell function results in
cellular deterioration:
function must be preserved
• With medical nanodevices, passive
structures can be repaired. Cell
function can be restored provided cell
structure can be inferred:
structure must be preserved
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Cryonics
Temperature
37º C
37º C
Restore
to health
Freeze
-196º C (77 Kelvins)
Time
(many decades)
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Would you rather join:
The control group?
(no action required)
or
The experimental group?
(see www.alcor.org for info)
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National Nanotechnology
Initiative
• Interagency (NSF, NASA, NIST, NIH,
DOD, .... See http://www.nsf.gov/nano)
• Favorable congressional hearings
• Government funding expected to double
• Academic interest increasing
• Private funding increasing (existing
companies, startups such as Zyvex)
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There is a growing sense in
the scientific and technical
community that we are about
to enter a golden new era.
Richard Smalley
http://www.house.gov/
science/smalley_062299.htm
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Nanotechnology offers ...
possibilities for health,
wealth, and capabilities
beyond most past
imaginings.
K. Eric Drexler
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How long?
• The scientifically correct answer is
I don’t know
• Trends in computer hardware
suggest the 2010 to 2020 time
frame
• Of course, how long it takes
depends on what we do
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The best way
to predict the future
is to invent it.
Alan Kay
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