Transcript Group 4 presentation (Mayra)x

Analyzing USGS River Data
Presenters: Mayra, Olivia, Xio, Symone
Analyzing USGS River Data
Presenters: Mayra, Olivia, Xio, Symone
River discharge locations
Mayra: St. Croix River near Danbury, WI
Olivia: San Juan River at Shiprock, NM
Xio: Sacramento River, near Grimes, California
Symone: Wenachee river, Washington
St. Croix River
Drainage area: 4092 sq. km (1,580 sq. miles).
Annual mean precipitation ~31 inches/year.
Tributary to the Mississippi River.
Hydroelectric plant at St. Croix Falls supplies
power to the Minneapolis-St. Paul
metropolitan area.
Aerial photo of St. Croix River
Photo by Mike Demulling
http://www.stillwatercurrent.com/check-aerial-view-showing-1-year-st-croix-river-crossing-construction-progress/
Map of St. Croix Watershed
Log-transformed River data 38,000days (St.
Croix)
Log-transformed
river discharge
date for 1000
years.
Highest flood year
~12,500 cfs at
~31,800 days
Untransformed Distribution Bell Curve (St.Croix
River)
Mean 1318 cfs
Median 1080 cfs
Skew= 2.96 skews
toward the right
(positive skew)
Log transformed Histogram (St.Croix River)
Skew is more
noticeably toward
the right.
Median discharge at
~3.1 (1259 cfs).
Flood point at ~4.0 is
far to the right,
therefore not
common.
How is local climate reflected in the discharge
data?
Data shows that droughts are not as common as floods occurring ~2.5 years.
Data shows that floods occur approx. yearly.
Average median discharge is ~1259 cfs.
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Croix_River_(Wisconsin–Minnesota)
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/wri934076/stations/05333500.html
San Juan River
Mean annual temperature of Shiprock, New
Mexico: 53.3° F
Mean annual precicitation of Shiprock: 7.68 in
Mean daily streamflow: 1600 ft^3/s
Long term mean flow: 4190
Discharge (Qw) vs. Day Number
According to USGS:
Discharge: 1360 ft^3/s
Gage Height: 8.34 ft
Drainage Area: 12900 m^2
Mean
1952.051
Std Dev [RMSE]
2401.862
Std Error
13.91478
SSE
1.72e+11
R-Square
0.971579
Sum of Squares Error
4.885e+9
Bivariate Fit of base-10 Qw By Day Number
Bivariate Fit of base-10 Qw By Day Number
Largest flood datum
Discharge distribution
Sacramento
River
-
-
-
-
Source near Mount Shasta
Ends in the Suisun Bay on
the contra costa - solano
county line
Drainage area: ~27000 sq
mi
Average Discharge:
10062.03 cu ft/s
Grimes CA recieves 17 in
rain per year & 1 in snow
Max: 32600 cu ft/s
Min: 645 cu ft/s
NON-TRANSFORMED RIVER DATA : 28353 DAYS
Initial flooding estimate was ~ 26000 cu ft/s
(Red line above )
TRANSFORMED RIVER DATA : 28353 DAYS
Initial flooding estimate 26000 cu ft/s
~ 4.4 (red line above)
NON-TRANSFORMED DISCHARGE: 1000 DAYS
Intervals of ~400 days
Seasonal data
(red line 26000 cu ft/s flood estimate)
LOG TRANSFORMED DISCHARGE: 1000 DAYS
Intervals of ~400 days
Seasonal data
(red line 4.4 flood estimate)
UNTRANSFORED 28353 DAY HISTORGRAM
- Median :7720 cu ft/s
- Mean :10062.034 cu ft/s
- Skewness: 1.405
LOG TRANSFORMED 28353 DAY HISTOGRAM
- Meadian: 3.88 ~ 7586 CFS
- Mean: 3.92 ~8317 CFS
- Skewness: 0.2 aka slightly skewed to the right.
River
MEAN:
2249
MEDIAN:
1190
STANDARD DEVIATION: 2428
I DECIDED THAT FLOODS OCCUR AT OR ABOVE 7000 CFCS
WHICH COMES OUT TO ROUGHLY 19 FLOODS A YEAR
Drainage area: 1328 square miles
LOG TRANSFOMED, ALL DATA POINTS
Log transformed of 1,000 days
Comparison
Which sites are wetter, drier, etc?
Which sites are flashier?
Do biggest floods happen where mean anual discharge is greatest?
River discharge locations
Mayra: St. Croix River near Danbury, WI
Olivia: San Juan River at Shiprock, NM
Xio: Sacramento River, near Grimes, California
Symone: Wenachee river, Washington
St. Croix River
Drainage area: 4092 sq. km (1,580 sq. miles).
Annual mean precipitation ~31 inches/year.
Tributary to the Mississippi River.
Hydroelectric plant at St. Croix Falls supplies
power to the Minneapolis-St. Paul
metropolitan area.
Aerial photo of St. Croix River
Photo by Mike Demulling
http://www.stillwatercurrent.com/check-aerial-view-showing-1-year-st-croix-river-crossing-construction-progress/
Map of St. Croix Watershed
Log-transformed River data 38,000days (St.
Croix)
Log-transformed
river discharge
date for 1000
years.
Highest flood year
~12,500 cfs at
~31,800 days
Untransformed Distribution Bell Curve (St.Croix
River)
Mean 1318 cfs
Median 1080 cfs
Skew= 2.96 skews
toward the right
(positive skew)
Log transformed Histogram (St.Croix River)
Skew is more
noticeably toward
the right.
Median discharge at
~3.1 (1259 cfs).
Flood point at ~4.0 is
far to the right,
therefore not
common.
How is local climate reflected in the discharge
data?
Data shows that droughts are not as common as floods occurring ~2.5 years.
Data shows that floods occur approx. yearly.
Average median discharge is ~1259 cfs.
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Croix_River_(Wisconsin–Minnesota)
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/wri934076/stations/05333500.html
San Juan River
Mean annual temperature of Shiprock, New
Mexico: 53.3° F
Mean annual precicitation of Shiprock: 7.68 in
Mean daily streamflow: 1600 ft^3/s
Long term mean flow: 4190
Discharge (Qw) vs. Day Number
According to USGS:
Discharge: 1360 ft^3/s
Gage Height: 8.34 ft
Drainage Area: 12900 m^2
Mean
1952.051
Std Dev [RMSE]
2401.862
Std Error
13.91478
SSE
1.72e+11
R-Square
0.971579
Sum of Squares Error
4.885e+9
Bivariate Fit of base-10 Qw By Day Number
Bivariate Fit of base-10 Qw By Day Number
Largest flood datum
Discharge distribution
Sacramento
River
-
-
-
-
Source near Mount Shasta
Ends in the Suisun Bay on
the contra costa - solano
county line
Drainage area: ~27000 sq
mi
Average Discharge:
10062.03 cu ft/s
Grimes CA recieves 17 in
rain per year & 1 in snow
Max: 32600 cu ft/s
Min: 645 cu ft/s
NON-TRANSFORMED RIVER DATA : 28353 DAYS
Initial flooding estimate was ~ 26000 cu ft/s
(Red line above )
TRANSFORMED RIVER DATA : 28353 DAYS
Initial flooding estimate 26000 cu ft/s
~ 4.4 (red line above)
NON-TRANSFORMED DISCHARGE: 1000 DAYS
Intervals of ~400 days
Seasonal data
(red line 26000 cu ft/s flood estimate)
LOG TRANSFORMED DISCHARGE: 1000 DAYS
Intervals of ~400 days
Seasonal data
(red line 4.4 flood estimate)
UNTRANSFORED 28353 DAY HISTORGRAM
- Median :7720 cu ft/s
- Mean :10062.034 cu ft/s
- Skewness: 1.405
LOG TRANSFORMED 28353 DAY HISTOGRAM
- Meadian: 3.88 ~ 7586 CFS
- Mean: 3.92 ~8317 CFS
- Skewness: 0.2 aka slightly skewed to the right.
River
MEAN:
2249
MEDIAN:
1190
STANDARD DEVIATION: 2428
I DECIDED THAT FLOODS OCCUR AT OR ABOVE 7000 CFCS
WHICH COMES OUT TO ROUGHLY 19 FLOODS A YEAR
Drainage area: 1328 square miles
LOG TRANSFOMED, ALL DATA POINTS
Log transformed of 1,000 days
Comparison
Which sites are wetter, drier, etc?
Which sites are flashier?
Do biggest floods happen where mean anual discharge is greatest?