Transcript Generation to be Dispatched

Generation to be Dispatched(GTBD)
Analysis
PDCWG/QMWG Joint Meeting 11/02/2012
For the purpose of discussion only
Discussion Points
1. Zonal/Nodal Regulation Deployment statistics
2. Regulation Deployment and Recall
3. Short-Term Load Forecast and Projected Load Ramp Rate (PLRR)
4. Analysis of Regulation Deployment (June 2012 to Aug 2012)
5. Discuss different GTBD calculation options including the one
proposed by NPRR 486
6. Statistical Analysis of different methods of calculating GTBD with
August and September data
7. Summary
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For the purpose of discussion only
Zonal/Nodal Regulation Deployment Statistics
Regulation-Up Regulation-Down Regulation-Up
Deployed (5 Deployed (5 min Deployed
min sample
(hourly average
sample data)
data)
data)
Zonal Operation
(Jan to Nov.
2010)
Nodal
Operation (Dec
2010 to Sept
2012
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Regulation-Down
Deployed (hourly
average data)
357.250
-314.464
284.776
-234.374
169.378
-138.174
124.176
-89.236
3
For the purpose of discussion only
Regulation Deployment – Example 1
ERCOT & QSE Summary
10/30/2012 5:58:12 PM
120 60.04
\\EDS_PI\ERCOT.JAGCTOT
114.46
MW
\\EDS_PI\ERCOT.FHZ
59.998
HZ
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
59.96
17:53
Regulation to Allocate
17:54
ERCOT Frequency in AGC
3/27/2016
17:56
4
17:57
17:58
For the purpose of discussion only
Regulation Deployment – Example 2
ERCOT & QSE Summary
80
10/30/2012 4:28:12 PM
60.03
\\EDS_PI\ERCOT.JAGCTOT
18.964
MW
\\EDS_PI\ERCOT.FHZ
60.017
HZ
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
59.96
16:23
Regulation to Allocate
16:24
ERCOT Frequency in AGC
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16:26
5
16:27
16:28
For the purpose of discussion only
Short Term Load Forecast and PLRR
STLF and Projected Load Ramp Rate
5 minute Ahead STLF
10 Min Ahead STLF
59000.00
58634.16
58581.54
58535.10
58500.00
58455.11
58379.52
58326.00
58324.10
58223.11
58115.91
58068.23
58025.39
58000.00
MW
57884.25
57861.63
57685.70
57664.13
57500.00
57491.99
57459.71
57296.89
57000.00
13:50
13:45
13:40
6
13:35
13:30
13:25
13:20
13:15
13:10
13:05
3/27/2016
For the purpose of discussion only
Analysis of Regulation Deployment
Regulation Analysis
Total
RegulationUp
Duration
Total
RegulationDown
Duration
Average
Regulation-Up
Deployed (MW)
Average
Regulation-Down
Deployed (MW)
June -12
52.44%
47.56%
177.51
-146.56
June-12 Peak
Hour (14 to 18)
64.17%
35.83%
184.96
-118.37
July-12
53.23%
46.77%
150.89
-120.47
July - 12 Peak
Hour (14 to 18)
69.19%
30.81%
160.68
-115.58
August-12
59.20%
40.80%
162.37
-116.85
August-12 Peak
Hour (14 to 18)
75.99%
24.01%
174.47
-97.60
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For the purpose of discussion only
Analysis of Regulation Deployment……..continued
Total
RegulationUp
Regulation Analysis Duration
Total
RegulationDown
Duration
Average
Regulation-Up
Deployed (MW)
Average
Regulation-Down
Deployed (MW)
September -12
53.99%
46.01%
169.90
-128.64
September-12
Peak Hour
(14 to 18)
64.87%
35.13%
159.61
-119.00
October -12
47.47%
52.53%
138.36
-126.78
October - 12
Peak Hour
(14 to 18)
48.74%
51.26%
129.90
-106.85
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For the purpose of discussion only
Underlying inputs for GTBD Calculation
1. Current GTBD Calculation
Total Gen + 1.1*5 *Projected Load Ramp Rate (PLRR)
2. GTBD1 (proposed per NPRR-486)
Total UDBP + Total Regulation Deployed + 1.1*5*PLRR
3. GTBD2 (modification includes using regulation-bias
factor and modified K3)
Total Gen + 1.2*5*PLRR +0.1*Regulation Deployed
4. GTBD3 (increased K3)
Total Gen+1.3*5*PLRR
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For the purpose of discussion only
Statistical evaluation of GTBD calculation
Aug & Sept all Current GTBD
hours
Mean
3.072
Standard
Deviation
Zero mean
probability
GTBD1
GTBD2
GTBD3
47.348
7.002
2.819
109.225
207.099
115.512
127.401
0.489
0.410
0.476
0.491
Aug & Sept (14- Current GTBD
18 hours)
Mean
7.185
Standard
Deviation
Zero mean
probability
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GTBD1
GTBD2
GTBD3
93.727
12.146
2.514
108.767
165.778
109.389
118.145
0.474
0.286
0.456
0.492
10
For the purpose of discussion only
Statistical evaluation of GTBD calculation….(continued)
Aug & Sept (0-4 Current GTBD
hours)
Mean
-7.197
GTBD1
GTBD2
GTBD3
-27.471
-18.651
-27.040
Standard
Deviation
91.378
178.913
95.113
98.297
Zero mean
probability
0.531
0.561
0.578
0.608
Aug & Sept (5-8 Current GTBD
hours)
Mean
7.261
Standard
Deviation
Zero mean
probability
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GTBD1
GTBD2
GTBD3
29.773
26.545
38.180
114.002
201.453
119.175
126.917
0.475
0.441
0.412
11
0.382
For the purpose of discussion only
Statistical evaluation of GTBD calculation….(continued)
Aug & Sept (0913 hours)
Mean
Standard
Deviation
Zero mean
probability
Current GTBD
3/27/2016
GTBD2
GTBD3
26.642
115.954
59.668
77.240
112.424
217.447
110.020
116.149
0.406
0.297
0.294
GTBD1
GTBD2
Aug & Sept (19- Current GTBD
23 hours)
Mean
-17.739
Standard
Deviation
Zero mean
probability
GTBD1
0.253
GTBD3
21.112
-40.936
-69.951
113.653
230.697
116.169
123.142
0.562
0.464
0.638
12
0.715
For the purpose of discussion only
Summary & Suggestions
1. Slide showing Regulation-Analysis reflects small bias toward usage of
Regulation-Up Service for all durations
2. Regulation usage duration from 14:00 to 18:00 hours is greatly biased towards
the usage of Regulation-Up service
3. Statistical Analysis of GTBD-Load (Error) reflects, the current GTBD error is very
close to the probability of zero mean of the error (which is 0.5 for normal
distribution)
4. Statistical Analysis shows that the GTBD calculation proposed through NPRR
486, increases Standard deviation of error, increase the mean of average error
and reduces the probability of zero mean error away from 0.5 compared to all
other options.
5. ERCOT Suggests that changes in the GTBD calculation be made as reflected in
GTBD2 calculation. Regulation contribution to GTBD be tuned with the weighing
factor . The Regulation contribution should be a rolling average value.
6. ERCOT believes that Step 5, “Regulation Recall based on pending base-point”
functionality and some LFC tuning will help improve the regulation bias issue.
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For the purpose of discussion only
Questions??
3/27/2016
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For the purpose of discussion only