Transcript Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme

Forestry Component of the
PRAC Terrestrial Theme
Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere
Saskatchewan Research Council
15 February 2012
Copyright © SRC 2012
Overview of Forestry Activities and
Case Studies
 Alberta SRD:
– Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests
(complete)
– Study of fire season length, wind speed and atmospheric moisture
(ongoing)
 Manitoba Conservation Forestry Branch
– Vulnerability assessment for the Sandilands area in SE MB
– Summary of climate change scenarios for Sandilands area of
southeastern MB
 Saskatchewan Environment Forest Service
– Island Forests Vulnerability Assessment
– Impacts of climate change on IF wood supply
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AB SRD: Literature Review
Report focused on
Forest Fringe
Applies generally to
southern boreal forests
in the prairie region
Includes impacts on
ecosystem services;
risk assessment; and
adaptation options
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AB SRD: Climate Change and Forest Fires
Change in Fire Season Length Relative to the 1979-2010 Average (days)
Scenario
Model
2020s
2050s
2080s
A1B
CGCM
17.6±4.9
20.8±5.4
23.5±5.0
Hadley
17.6±5.2
21.1±5.3
25.1±6.1
IPSL
18.1±4.6
22.7±5.3
27.7±6.5
CGCM
17.5±4.6
20.6±5.3
25.6±6.0
Hadley
17.2±5.2
21.0±5.0
26.5±6.6
IPSL
18.4±4.8
22.7±5.3
28.8±6.2
CGCM
17.2±4.7
19.3±5.4
21.2±5.1
Hadley
17.4±5.6
19.8±5.0
23.1±5.6
IPSL
18.2±4.8
22.0±5.2
24.5±5.9
A2
B1
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MB Conservation: Climate Change
 Forestry Branch is conducting a vulnerability assessment to
explore potential impacts of climate change on forest
management in the Sandilands provincial forest
(southeastern Manitoba).
 The guidebook developed through the Canadian Council of
Forest Ministers (CCFM) is being used as a reference for the
assessment.
 The assessment will identify potential adaptation options
and will establish a vulnerability assessment tool that can be
applied to other areas within the province.
 SRC has generated climate forecasts which are being used to
assess anticipated climate change impacts.
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MB Conservation: Climate Change
Excel look-up tables showing climate variables for
current and future time slices linked to maps
MU Variable
Season
Years
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
ANNUAL
1971-2000
6.98
8.23
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
AUTUMN 1971-2000
7.51
8.99
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
SPRING
1971-2000
7.92
9.21
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
SUMMER 1971-2000
24.31
25.21
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Min
Max
Mean
Tif_Files
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_ANNU
7.85 AL.TIF
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_AUTU
8.58 MN.TIF
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SPRI
8.82 NG.TIF
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SUM
24.62 MER.TIF
MU 24
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Multiple Vulnerabilities of
Saskatchewan’s Island Forests
Under Climate Change
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Saskatchewan Island Forests
Island Forests
Torch
Nesbit
Fort a la Corne
Canwood
¨
Prince Albert
Melfort
1:933 848
0
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15
30
60 Kilometers
Province of
Saskatchewan
What is LANDIS-II?
Broad scale landscape model designed to
simulate forest succession and disturbances
– Succession
– Disturbance
– Seed dispersal
– Forest management
– Carbon dynamics
– Climate change affects
Cohort Biomass
Harvest
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Fire
Insects
Wind
Spatially Interactive
Landscape
Results – Total Biomass (yr 50)
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Results – Total Biomass (yr 100)
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LANDIS – Future Fire
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Changes in Forest types
Non-Forest
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Soft wood
Hardwood
Muskeg
Wood Supply and Climate Change in
the Island Forests
Used a forest ecosystem model (PnET) to produce
estimates of annual biomass production (NPP)
Converted NPP to the equivalent harvestable wood
volume
Generated these estimate for current and future
climate
Used these data to generate yield curves for main
forest types – used in wood supply analysis
Results will be incorporated into a 20-year forest
management plan for the Island Forests
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Example yield curves for jack pine:
Constant CO2
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Example yield curves for jack pine:
Increasing CO2
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