Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme

download report

Transcript Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme

Forestry Component of the
PRAC Terrestrial Theme
Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere
Saskatchewan Research Council
15 February 2012
Copyright © SRC 2012
Overview of Forestry Activities and
Case Studies
 Alberta SRD:
– Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests
(complete)
– Study of fire season length, wind speed and atmospheric moisture
(ongoing)
 Manitoba Conservation Forestry Branch
– Vulnerability assessment for the Sandilands area in SE MB
– Summary of climate change scenarios for Sandilands area of
southeastern MB
 Saskatchewan Environment Forest Service
– Island Forests Vulnerability Assessment
– Impacts of climate change on IF wood supply
Copyright © SRC 2012
AB SRD: Literature Review
Report focused on
Forest Fringe
Applies generally to
southern boreal forests
in the prairie region
Includes impacts on
ecosystem services;
risk assessment; and
adaptation options
Copyright © SRC 2012
AB SRD: Climate Change and Forest Fires
Change in Fire Season Length Relative to the 1979-2010 Average (days)
Scenario
Model
2020s
2050s
2080s
A1B
CGCM
17.6±4.9
20.8±5.4
23.5±5.0
Hadley
17.6±5.2
21.1±5.3
25.1±6.1
IPSL
18.1±4.6
22.7±5.3
27.7±6.5
CGCM
17.5±4.6
20.6±5.3
25.6±6.0
Hadley
17.2±5.2
21.0±5.0
26.5±6.6
IPSL
18.4±4.8
22.7±5.3
28.8±6.2
CGCM
17.2±4.7
19.3±5.4
21.2±5.1
Hadley
17.4±5.6
19.8±5.0
23.1±5.6
IPSL
18.2±4.8
22.0±5.2
24.5±5.9
A2
B1
Copyright © SRC 2012
MB Conservation: Climate Change
 Forestry Branch is conducting a vulnerability assessment to
explore potential impacts of climate change on forest
management in the Sandilands provincial forest
(southeastern Manitoba).
 The guidebook developed through the Canadian Council of
Forest Ministers (CCFM) is being used as a reference for the
assessment.
 The assessment will identify potential adaptation options
and will establish a vulnerability assessment tool that can be
applied to other areas within the province.
 SRC has generated climate forecasts which are being used to
assess anticipated climate change impacts.
Copyright © SRC 2012
MB Conservation: Climate Change
Excel look-up tables showing climate variables for
current and future time slices linked to maps
MU Variable
Season
Years
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
ANNUAL
1971-2000
6.98
8.23
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
AUTUMN 1971-2000
7.51
8.99
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
SPRING
1971-2000
7.92
9.21
24Mean Max Temp (ºC)
SUMMER 1971-2000
24.31
25.21
Copyright © SRC 2012
Min
Max
Mean
Tif_Files
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_ANNU
7.85 AL.TIF
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_AUTU
8.58 MN.TIF
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SPRI
8.82 NG.TIF
MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SUM
24.62 MER.TIF
MU 24
Copyright © SRC 2012
Multiple Vulnerabilities of
Saskatchewan’s Island Forests
Under Climate Change
Copyright © SRC 2012
Saskatchewan Island Forests
Island Forests
Torch
Nesbit
Fort a la Corne
Canwood
¨
Prince Albert
Melfort
1:933 848
0
Copyright © SRC 2012
15
30
60 Kilometers
Province of
Saskatchewan
What is LANDIS-II?
Broad scale landscape model designed to
simulate forest succession and disturbances
– Succession
– Disturbance
– Seed dispersal
– Forest management
– Carbon dynamics
– Climate change affects
Cohort Biomass
Harvest
Copyright © SRC 2012
Fire
Insects
Wind
Spatially Interactive
Landscape
Results – Total Biomass (yr 50)
Copyright © SRC 2012
Results – Total Biomass (yr 100)
Copyright © SRC 2012
LANDIS – Future Fire
Copyright © SRC 2012
Changes in Forest types
Non-Forest
Copyright © SRC 2012
Soft wood
Hardwood
Muskeg
Wood Supply and Climate Change in
the Island Forests
Used a forest ecosystem model (PnET) to produce
estimates of annual biomass production (NPP)
Converted NPP to the equivalent harvestable wood
volume
Generated these estimate for current and future
climate
Used these data to generate yield curves for main
forest types – used in wood supply analysis
Results will be incorporated into a 20-year forest
management plan for the Island Forests
Copyright © SRC 2012
Example yield curves for jack pine:
Constant CO2
Copyright © SRC 2012
Example yield curves for jack pine:
Increasing CO2
Copyright © SRC 2012