Transcript CLIMATE_NRE_480_L09_Coherent_Convergent_20160209x

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary
Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2016
February 9, 2016
Class Information and News
• Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
–
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• A tumbler site to help me remember
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
Resources and Recommended Reading
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for
Policy Makers
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Technical
Summary
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Summary for
Policy Makers
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Technical
Summary
• National Climate Assessment (2014)
Resources and Recommended Reading
• BAMS: State of the Climate
– State of Climate 2009
• State of the Climate: Monthly Summary
• Walther, Ecological Response, Nature, 2002
• McCarty, Ecological Consequences,
Conservation Biology, 2001
• Rosenzweig, Attribution of Impacts, Nature,
2008
• Revkin DotEarth, Ocean Temperature
• Rood Blog, “Just Temperature”
Outline: Class 9, Winter 2016
• Climate variability and trends (Redux)
• Trends in physical climate
– Ocean
– Ice
– Rain
– Temperature
• Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC
WGII, and reference list)
Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.
– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño
– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode
– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Ocean Circulation
The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)
(The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean)
Blue shading, low salt
Where there is localized
exchange of water between
the surface and the deep
ocean (convection)
Green shading, high salt
Warm, surface currents.
Cold, bottom currents.
In Class / Groups / Discussion
• Thermohaline Circulation
– Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream
– How does it affect climate?
– How does variability affect climate?
• Consider:
– Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,
What is a stable climate?
LIQUID - ICE
NOAA Paleoclimate
Younger Dryas
POSSIBLE EVIDENCE
OF CHANGE IN OCEAN
CIRCULATION
WHAT DOES THIS
MEAN?
Abrupt Climate Change
• Dynamic variability in the ocean (ocean-ice-landatmosphere interactions)
• Most scenarios of abrupt climate change are
related to a phase change in some way or
another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is
there a change in the fresh water in the ocean?
Is there a release of gas stored in something
that is frozen?
• It is also possible to define rapid changes in
ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to
composition changes in the atmosphere.
Biology – sensitive to temperature, water,
salinity, ph, etc.
Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change
Abrupt Climate Change (NRC)
• Abrupt Climate Change (2013), National
Research Council
• Abrupt Climate Change (2002), National
Research Council
• Rood Summary Blog
• Wunderground: Abrupt Climate Change
In ad hoc groups
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Problem Solving
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Unification
Integration
(perhaps not unique)
What is science, the scientific method?
• Elements of the scientific method
– Observations of some phenomenon
– Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of
suppositions, followed by hypotheses
– In principle, hypotheses are testable:
• Experiments: cause and effect
• Prediction instead of experiments?
– Development of constructs, theory, which follow from
successful hypothesis.
• Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like?
– Development of tests, experiments that challenge the
hypotheses and predictions.
• Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is
constructed.
In ad hoc groups
• Group 1: Think about changes across the Earth
system that you would expect to see in a warming
climate.
– Atmosphere-ocean-ice-land
• Group 2: Think about climate change and the
“built” environment, what sort of changes would
you expect to be important in the next 50 years
• Group 3: Think about climate change and the
“biological” environment (natural and managed),
what sort of changes would you expect to be
important in the next 50 years
Climate Variability and Trends
Time Scales of Variability
LONG
SHORT
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation
0 years
25 years
El Niño / La Niña
?
Abrupt
Atlantic Meridional
Overturning
50 years
75 years
100 years
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña
Signal
GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Niño
Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times
Hawkins and Sutton, 2009 / Rood Lecture on Uncertainty
Trends in Physical Climate
Correlated behavior of different parameters
Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time
series from a range of indicators that
would be expected to correlate
strongly with the surface record.
Note that stratospheric cooling is an
expected consequence of greenhouse
gas increases. A version of this figure
with full references is available at
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/ .
• NOAA Web Resource on Ocean Heat
Content
• Levitus 2012 Paper on Ocean Heat
Content
• Abraham 2013 Paper on Ocean Heat
Content and Sea Level
Ocean Heat Content
Ocean Heat and Sea Level
Ice is Melting
• Snow and Ice Data Center
• State of the Cryosphere
95% of Earth’s glaciers are in retreat
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1890 (top) and 2005 (bottom)
Thanks to Paul Edwards
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1880 (left) and 2005 (right).
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1941 (left) and 2004 (right).
Thanks to Paul Edwards
Decline of Arctic Sea Ice
• Movie of Arctic Sea Ice
• NASA Sea Ice Collection
• Increase of Antarctic Sea Ice
Larsen Ice Shelf Collapse
January 31, 2002
March 5, 2002
Changes in Moisture and Precipitation
Precipitation Extreme Events in U.S.
For example Groisman et al. or the National Climate Assessment
Just Temperature
Current Climate
• Rood Blog “Just Temperature”
• For surface air temperature for the entire
globe, take a 100 year, 1900-1999,
average of each month. Subtract the
current month from that average. When
was the last month below average?
February 1985
Time series of February
Winter 2014
• It was very cold in Michigan in Winter
2014.
Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly
January 2014 in Perspective
• U.S.: 53rd coolest, 5th driest
• Global 4th Warmest
January 2014: Global Temperature
Role of El Niño (again)
Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly
Eastern Pacific
Eastern Pacific
Eastern Pacific
El Niño – La Niña
El Niño – La Niña
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Plant Hardiness - 2012
Trends in impacts (most briefly)
Edges and Accumulation
• “Edges” are places where we really might
be able to see things definitively. What
are the edges?
– Ice (Phase transition)
– Deserts
– Seasons
• Accumulation of heat
Project Budburst
• A community science activity collect
observations of the onset of spring
– Project Budburst
• How to observe the onset of spring
– National Phenology Network
Project of Trees
• A community science activity to collect
observations on types of trees
– Canadian Plant Hardiness Site
• Paper (including yours truly) on how
foresters think about climate change
– McKenney et al. (2011)
Interestingly significant news story
Hardiness Map
• Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness
Zones
• Plant Hardiness - 2012
Length of
Growing
Season
From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University
Can we get a global perspective from satellites?
• NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index
– Looks at radiative budgets, measurements,
and the absorption of photosynthetically
active radiation, relative to the rest of the
radiation.
How would these changes be revealed?
 Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through
1. changes in growing season
2. changes in “productivity”
Increases in growing season
delayed
fall
earlier
spring
Jan
Jul Aug
NDVI
Dec
Increases in Productiviy
Increase
Jan
Jul Aug
NDVI
From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard
Dec
From Kirsten de Beures
Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve
(Keeling et al, 1996)
Amplitude has increased
40% in Alaska, Canada
Amplitude has increased
20% in Hawaii
The phase, start of the
decrease, start of the
growing season, has
moved forward 7 days.
Geographical extent of warming
Osborn Spatial Extent of Warming
Coherent and Convergent Evidence
• There is evidence in both the physical climate
system and ecosystems of systematic global
warming.
• This evidence shows correlated behavior
through many systems.
• Taken independently each piece could be
challenged.
• Taken together the evidence converges.
– Consistent with human-related forcing
Summary: Class 9, Winter 2016
• Climate variability and trends (Redux)
– Internal modes of variability dominate
uncertainty in short-term (decades) and at
“smaller” spatial scales (continents)
– Oceanic circulation critical in decadal
variability and predictive skill
Summary: Class 9, Winter 2016
• Trends in physical climate
– Consistent message from ocean, ice,
atmosphere, land
– Apparent counterfactuals? Further
investigation, are they counterfactual?
• Trends in impacts:
– IPCC WG II comprehensive summary
– Seasons are changing, plants are changing,
birds are changing,
Outline: Class 9, Winter 2016
• Climate variability and trends (Redux)
• Trends in physical climate
– Ocean
– Ice
– Rain
– Temperature
• Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC
WGII, and reference list)