Transcript Updating adaptation strategy in Finland

Supporting implementation of
Finland’s climate change adaptation
plan
Vajda A1., Mäkelä A. 1, Tuomenvirta H. 1, Luhtala S. 1, Hilden M. 2 and Gregow H. 1
1) Finnish Meteorological Institute
2) Finnish Environmental Institute
10th EIONET Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
14-15 June, 2016, Copenhagen
2005: First NAS published - first in Europe
• based on then existing research information
• 2009: (Midterm) Evaluation of the implementation
• 2012/2013 Final evaluation of the implementation
2014: National Adaptation Plan
Multi-sectoral assessments
Forestry
Storm damage
Snow load damage
Forest fire danger
Growing season
Energy and infrastructure
Heating and cooling demand
Extreme weather ↔ energy production
Extreme weather ↔ infrastructure safety
Sea level rise ↔ infrastructure safety
Transportation
Extreme weather ↔ transportation
Baltic sea ice conditions
Climate projections
Hydrology
Input for hydrological scenarios:
- hydropower production
- flood prevention and construction
Blizzard days (2041-2070)-(1971-2000)
Socio-economic
applications
Risk assessment
Adaptation measures
Cost and benefit assessment
Decision support tools
The changing climate in
Finland: estimates for
adaptation studies
(Jylhä et al. 2009)
“How to prepare against
the inevitable climate
change?”
(Ruuhela et al. 2012)
Summary of the Finnish
adaptation research in
various sectors
(agriculture, forestry,
fisheries, biodiversity,
urban, …)
Dissemination & communication
• Background articles
• Sector-specific mitigation and
adaptation articles
• Mapping tools
• Visualizations, researcher video
interviews, bite-size videos,
infographics, test, quiz
• Learning assignments for upper
secondary schools
• News section, Facebook
Coming in June:
Adaptive capacity and vulnerability for elderly people
ELASTINEN PROJECT (2015-2016)
http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/elastinen
Funding: Government's analysis, assessment and
research activities
→Support coherent/consistent adaptation to
climate change
Interaction with the next-users
Survey / Workshop on Weather and Climate Risk
Management
118 replies covering 24
sectors of public and
private actors
• Storm winds, extreme precipitation and floods were considered the most adverse
weather events followed by drought, heat waves and abundant snow
• Main drivers for risk management is economic losses (damage to property, operation
breaks) but also impacts to health and environment are reasons for concern
• Climate change is widely seen as an opportunity, too (42 %)
• Climate risk management is often de-centralized and diverse
• In municipalities, lack of resources leads to nonsystematic W&C risk management
There are differences
between sectors
ELASTINEN PROJECT (2015-2016)
http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/elastinen
Weather risks, climate change uncertainties and data
exploitability
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Update the most recent climate change information in ClimateGuide.fi
- updating the scenarios (SRES  RCP)
Updating the return periods of heavy rainfall events in the present
climate
Update the Impacts of Climate Change tool with flood maps based on
most recent scenarios
New ways to combine impact and vulnerability data to improve
preparedness and safety
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Can be applied to estimate to probability of heavy rain
event in a single place.
Changes in the yearly mean high
water discharge 2070-2099
relatively to 1971-2000
ELASTINEN PROJECT (2015-2016)
http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/elastinen
Warnings implementation → Impact-based concept
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Rescue
service datadata
Historiallinen
Electricity failures
(”tapaustietokanta”)
Insurance
Forest data
….
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History
weather/situ •
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Soil frost
Olosuhdeparametrit
Soil
moisture
Winds
Wind gustiness
History
impact data
Datafusion
outcome:
Data delivery
of the forecasted
weather
Consultancy
A joint effort is needed to more widely collectSector-based
and distribute info on weather and
probable impacts
climate impacts
station data
Forecast
data
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Meteorologinen ennustedata
Wind
gusts
epävarmuuksineen
Wind directions
Ensembles
Uncertainties
….
Impacts and
probability
(”traffic lights”)
EMS/ECAC 2016:
“Improving the end-user preparedness with severe weather impact-warnings in Finland” (Kokko A. et al.)
Key findings related to transboundary impacts
• Potential transboundary impacts have been observed in all societal sectors in Finland
• Particularly significant transboundary impacts may be felt in
1. Energy sector (import of electricity, growth of intermittent energy
production, need for balance, impact on price volatility);
2. Manufacturing, business and finance (general economic development,
insurance, new opportunities in adaptation, access to raw materials,
changing export markets);
3. Population (health, culture);
4. International activities (development co-operation, focus and contents of
humanitarian aid).
(Hilden et al. under preparation)
ELASTINEN PROJECT (2015-2016)
http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/elastinen
Challenges & suggestions
• International cooperation to support adaptation
• Nordic Framework for Climate Services => at the moment, FMI is leading the NFCS Heavy Rainfall
Activity
• FMI provides climate change scenario consultancy and capacity building for the Latvian Ministry of
Environment and Regional Development and the Latvian Met. Institute in 2016
• Development projects in different parts of the world
Central Asia
Caribbean SIDS
Pacific SIDS
On-going
In preparation
Scientific research
Finalised cooperation and consultation project
• Education for journalists
• 2-day course (11 year): physical science basis with updates & various topics (IPCC, impacts,
technologies, training on ClimateGuide.fi, etc.)
Challenges & suggestions
Information that is provided by the research institutes and used by the
next-users needs to guarantee optimal knowledge exchange
Decision makers 
a bit unclear how the information is used!
THUS
Better monitoring and feedback of
information exchange and use between
climate service providers and decision makers is needed
Ilmatieteen laitos
Erik Palménin aukio 1,
00560 Helsinki
PL 503, 00101 Helsinki,
puh. 029 539 1000
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www.fmi.fi
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Meteorologiska institutet
Erik Palméns plats 1,
00560 Helsingfors
PB 503, 00101 Helsingfors
tel. 029 539 1000
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Erik Palménin aukio 1,
FI-00560 Helsinki
P.O.Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki
tel. +358 29 539 1000
Twitter: @meteorologit ja @IlmaTiede
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