Transcript Climate change: Pakistan`s Perspective

Naeem Shah
Pakistan Meteorological Department
IPCC (2007) :
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
– “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now
evident from observations of increase in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising global sea-level.”
– “Changes in extremes of temperature are also consistent with
warming of the climate”
– “Substantial increases are found in heavy precipitation events”
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and
Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
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A recent survey of the Climate Risk Index ranked
Pakistan as the eighth most affected country from
climate change, while it only ranks at 129 in
greenhouse gas emissions per capita.
Many factors contribute to and compound the
impacts of climate change as well as our ability to
cope with them.
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
Pakistan's Annual Temperature (1961-2011)
23.75
y = 0.0138x + 22.256
23.50
Temp (⁰C)
23.25
23.00
22.75
22.50
22.25
22.00
Actual
Normal
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
21.75
Linear (Actual)
PMD observed data shows significant rise in mean temperature from 1998. The mean
temperatures have risen at the rate 0.138°C per decade from 1961 to 2011 resulting in
total change of 0.70°C, which is significant at 95% level. Warmest year in Pakistan,
recorded by PMD is 2007 and second warmest is 2002 in the period aforementioned.
There is a drastic rise in temperatures in the last decade.
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
Pakistan's Annual Rainfall (1961-2011)
450
y = 1.3931x + 263.1
Rainfall (mm)
400
350
300
250
200
Actual
Normal
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
150
Linear (Actual)
An increasing trend was observed for the annual average rainfall over Pakistan,
for the period 1961 – 2011. The increase is 13.9 mm per decade.
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
The seasonal and annual mean temperature changes in different regions of the
country. As can be seen, that greatest increase on seasonal basis in all the regions is
in winter. Winter season is taken from December to February (DJF). Pakistan has long
duration of summer season so the summer season is taken from May to September
(MJJAS). In central and southern parts of the country the increase in mean temperature
can be seen and in northern parts of the country there is decrease in summer mean
temperatures. This decrease is even more pronounced in extreme north of the country
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
Data collected from 56
meteorological stations in
Pakistan shows a sharp rise
in temperature during the
first decade of the 21st
century, except the year
2005, while a rise of four
degrees centigrade is
expected to occur within
the century in the Indus
delta region. Impacts
included loss of vegetation,
deforestation and irregular
precipitation
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
Pakistan lies in a geographical region where temperature increase is
expected to be higher than the global average, making it an
extremely climate sensitive country.
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The impacts of climate change felt in Pakistan range from tropical
cyclones in the south to glacier retreat in the north.
All the impacts of climate change and their manifestations have
been looked into in detail, which also identifies high-risk areas and
make recommendations.
“Warmer nights threaten crop production (due to heat stress) by
increasing overall water requirements and higher rates of
respiration.
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
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:
“Winter seasons have shown more of a warming trend compared to
the summer seasons. This in turn extends the summer season and
shortens the winter season, thereby shortening the kharif cropgrowing period.”
Some of the key findings are: changes in thermal regime have
occurred and daily temperature variations have increased. The
minimum temperature, which is the measure of lowest nighttime
temperature, and the maximum temperature, commonly
representing the highest daytime temperature, have increased in
both summer and winter seasons throughout Pakistan.
“Crops that are expected to undergo changes and have in many
cases already shown visible changes include wheat and bananas.
Wheat grains do not gain proper size and weight nor do they
accumulate optimum starch contents hence reducing the total grain
yield. Bananas growing in the present climatic conditions are
expected to bear poor fruit and give dwarf yield,”.
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
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The data collected over five years at Gwadar shows that there is a
rising trend in sea level rise and
It is expected that if the thermal regime continued to heat up at
the present rate, there would be an average rise of 6mm per
annum.
“Impacts of sea level rise are likely to include coastal erosion,
wetland and coastal plain flooding, inundation of deltaic plains,
salinization of aquifers and soils, and a loss of ecosystem.”
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
Increase in mangrove cover:
One of the key findings of the study consisting of hazard maps is the
physical spread as measured in hectares of overall mangrove cover.
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“The research over a 10-year period of time slot from 2001-2011 comes
with an interesting note that total mangroves cover has been increased by
approximately 200 hectares in Keti Bunder while open canopy mangrove
cover has increased by 1,000 hectares. The total mangrove cover in Kharo
Chan has grown by about 2,000 hectares”.
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The figures on mangrove cover, are of practical value as it is a source of a
natural barrier against the storms of recent years.
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Major tropical cyclones that have struck Pakistan’s coastal areas are, at least
10 cyclones occurred since 1895.
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The deadliest tropical storm in Pakistan’s history hit Karachi coast in
December 1965, killing about 10,000 people.
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
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Highlighting the case of land being lost to sea: “The erosion rate in
Kharo Chann is high with a maximum of 60.7 m/year and mean of
35.2 m/year in area along Sonhri Creek. Apparently, this is not a
direct threat but the rate at which we are losing land is alarmingly
high. This may result in loss of land worth a lot.”
Community-based Vulnerability Assessment, conducted in Jiwani,
Kharo Chan and Keti Bunder are: the number of months fishermen
spent at sea has decreased, thus shortening the time window within
which to match the previous season’s size of catch; decline in the
stock of specific species within specific season, growing seasons
have altered in both Thatta and Gwadar districts; people have
limited access to market and have also experienced losses due to
extreme weather conditions
Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment
and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013
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