Transcript Presentation - IEA Bioenergy Task 38

Land Use Change and Other Factors Affecting Climate
Change Benefits of Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil
Manoel Regis L.V. Leal
Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory (CTBE)
Task 38 Brazilian National Team Leader
Australia, November 25-26, 2013
Contents
• LUC/ILUC issues
– Origins
– Impact assessments: uncertainties
• Sugarcane ethanol in Brazil
– Countries emissions profile
– Ways to control LUC
LUC and ILUC: Why Bother?
• It is required by RED, RFS2, LCFS and other
legislations
• They can represent significant impacts on GHG
emissions, biodiversity, food security, water
balance and quality, soil organic matter (SOM)
What Causes LUC?
• Land available for ag-expansion without deforestation (previously
cleared, underutilized)
= 500 to 4000 million hectares(1)
This circle size reflects 1500
• Global land area impacts:
[million hectares per year]
– Fire = 330-430 (2) est. 380
– Dev./Urban exp. (1) = 1.5
– LUC bioenergy est. (3) = 0.2
too small to be visible
(1) Enormous range due to pasture, grassland,
marginal land estimates
Sources: (1) Kline et al. 2009; calc. by author based on FAO 2007.
(2) Giglio et al. 2010; Randerson 2013. (3) Tyner et al. 2010 (3 m ha
total over 14 years = 0.2 M ha each year)
Where LUC GHG Emissions Come From?
LUC emissions from
biofuels represent
only 1% of the total!
Source: Tipper, Hutchinson, Brander, 2009
Some Facts
• Although LUC emissions from biofuels can be significant in
their LCA emissions, they represent only 1% of the global
LUC emissions;
• Biofuels occupied only 0.5% (27 Mha) of the managed land
in 2007 (1,500 Mha arable land plus 3,400 Mha of pasture)
and 2% of the arable land in the world;
• ILUC GHG emissions calculations are still under hot debate.
LUC GHG Emissions (g CO2e/MJ)
Source
Maize Ethanol
Soya Biodiesel
Searchinger et al. (2008)
156
165-270
CARB (2009)
45
63
EPA (2010)
47
54
Hertel et al. (2010)
40
-
Tyner et al. (2010)
21
-
IFPRI MIRAGE (2010)
54
75
Source: EC COM (2010) 811 Final
EPA – 1st round
EPA – 2nd round
Some Reasons For Differences
• Different assumptions and data base, low
disaggregation levels;
• Different methodologies: co-products impacts,
CGE/PE and allocation models, elasticities,
yields, land price;
What Needs to Be Done?
• To reduce LUC/ILUC
– Public policies to manage LU
– Technology improvements to increase yields and reduce
impacts
• To improve LUC/ILUC analysis
– Continue to develop better models
– Produce disaggregated data for the local conditions
Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil
•
•
•
•
•
Country’s LU
Country’s GHG emissions inventory
PP to reduce LUC and impacts
Technology development
GHG LCA
Land Use in Brazil
Brazilian GHG Inventory (2005)
Sector
GWP (Tg CO2e)
Share (%)
Energy
328.8
15.0
Industry
77.9
3.6
Agriculture
415.8
18.9
1,329.1
60.6
41.0
1.9
2,194.6
100.0
Land use change and forest
Waste treatment
Total
Source: Brazil Second Communication to UNFCCC (MCT, 2010)
Main Public Policies
• National Plan of Climate Change (PNMC)
• Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC)
• Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning
Deforestation Reduction Commitment
Low Carbon Agriculture
Technology
Area Increase (Mha)
Degraded Pasture Recovery
15
Agriculture/Livestock/Forest Integration
4
No-Tillage Cropping
8
Biological Nitrogen Fixation
Planted Forrest
Animal Waste Treatment
Loans available for implementing these technologies
5.5
3
4.4
Degraded Pasture
Dynamics of Sugarcane Expansion
Source: Adami et al., 2012
Agricultural and Pasture Area Outlook
Pasture Area Outlook
Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning
64.5 Mha of land available
for sugarcane planting with
low impacts.
It represents only 7.5% of
Brazil total area
Source: EMBRAPA, 2009
Technology Improvements to Reduce LUC
• Sugarcane breeding: conventional and GM;
• Low impact mechanization: reduce soil
compaction and allow no-tillage planting;
• Crop management: precision agriculture,
increase plant density, irrigation, N fixation.
Goals: increase yields and reduce fossil energy use
Redução da Distância Entre Linhas
Row spacing (m)
Today (Brazil)
Initial Target(CTBE)
October2002
•
•
•
•
Final Comments
LUC is a critical issue for biofuels;
The methods and data used to assess its impacts
need to be highly improved;
Biofuels LUC should be considered integrated
with other LUC causes; the dynamics for
deforestation and other causes need to be better
understood and managed;
Public Policies and technology development are
important tools to reduce LUC impacts.
THANK YOU!
[email protected]
Energy and GHG Balances For Sugarcane Ethanol
Source: Macedo et al., 2008
GHG Emissions Outlook
Energy Sector
Planted Area (1st crop) by Region