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IMPORTANCE OF INLAND WATERS, LAKES
AND MARINE FISH SPECIES AND THE IMPACT
OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THESE. ALSO, THE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHING
AND THE HOW IT ALL AFFECTS THE LOCAL
COMMUNITIES
Muhammad Moazzam Khan
PRESENTATION CONTENTS

Importance of:
 Inland
waters and lakes
 Marine fish species
Impact of climate change on these.
 Impact of climate change:

 on
fishing and
 how it all affects the local communities
FISHERIES RESOURCES
Inland
Fisheries
Marine Fisheries
Aquaculture
STREAM/RIVERS
LARGE RIVERS
R
I
V
E
R
I
N
D
U
S
RESERVOIRS
DAMS
NATURAL LAKES
AQUACULTURE
INLAND RESOURCES
Inland (million hectare)
 Rivers
 Dams/Canals
 Lakes
 Indus
Delta
 Flood area
 Farms
 Total
3.19
0.15
3.14
0.38
1.00
0.06
7.92
FRESHWATER FISHERIES

Dominated by Cyprinids
 Indian
major carps
 Exotic carps
Other species include catfish, snakeheads,
spiny eels,
 Sindh has most surface water bodies including
natural lakes, dhands, seepage areas,
therefore, has high production.

FRESHWATER FISH: LOCAL SPECIES
Rohu: Labeo
rohita
Morakhi: Cirrihinus mrigala
Thaila: Catla catla
FRESHWATER FISH: LOCAL SPECIES
Wallago: Wallago attu
Catfish: Mystus seenghala
Catfish: Rita macracanthus
Snakehead: Channa marulius
Spiny eel: Mastacembelus armatus
Featherback: Chitala chitala
FRESHWATER FISH: EXOTIC SPECIES
Common carp: Cyprinus
carpio
Nile tilapia: Oreochromis niloticus
Grass carp: Ctenopharyngodon
idella
Silver carp: Hypophthalmichthys molitrix
FISH PRODUCTION (INLAND)
SINDH
PUNJAB
Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa,
Gilgit Baltistan
DAMS
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
FISH PRODUCTION (INLAND)
Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa,
Gilgit Baltistan
DAMS
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
DELTA/ESTUARY
ARABIAN SEA
PAKISTAN’S COAST LINE
EXTENDED EEZ
TOTAL >300,000 SQ KM
EEZ – 200 NM
240,000 SQ KM
EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE
21
MARINE FISHERIES

Dominated by pelagic (surface dwelling) and demersal (bottom
dwelling) and shellfishes

Demersal are most common food fishes

Pelagic includes large and small pelagic

Large pelagic


Small pelagics


Tuna, mackerel, billfish
Sardinellas, anchovies, scads
Shellfish includes shrimp, crabs, lobsters, squids, cuttlefish, jellyfish
MARINE FISHING ZONES

Zone I - 0 -12 n. miles-Provincial jurisdiction
(Reserved for traditional small scale fishermen of
Sindh and Balochistan Province)

Zone-II (Buffer Zone) 12-20 n. miles Federal
Jurisdiction No restriction on fishing by traditional
small scale fishermen

Zone III - 20- 200 n.miles Federal Jurisdiction
(exploited by deep sea fishing vessels, stern
trawlers, and tuna long liners) No restriction on
fishing by traditional small scale fishermen
COMMERCIALLY
IMPORTANT
MARINE FISHES
OF PAKISTAN
COMMERCIALLY
IMPORTANT
SHELLFISHES
OF PAKISTAN
FISH PRODUCTION OF PAKISTAN
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
MARINE
INLAND
TOTAL
MARINE FISH PRODUCTION
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
SINDH
BALOCHISTAN
E.E.Z
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
FISH
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
FISH
When the surrounding water warms up,
metabolism speeds up
 Digest food more rapidly,
 Grow more quickly
 Have more energy to reproduce.
 But fish need more food and more oxygen
to support this higher metabolism.
 Warmer fish tend to mature more quickly,
 This speedy lifestyle is often a smaller
body size and a smaller brood.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
HABITATS OF FISH
 Expansion
habitats
and/or contraction of suitable
 Shifts
in the distribution of fish stocks
through



Changes in migratory circuits that connect
life stages
Affecting successful completion of the life
cycle
Affecting successful recruitment
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
FISHERIES


Climate is now recognized as a major factor
affecting the productivity of key species in
world fisheries.
Following changes in commercially and
ecologically important marine fish species at
organismal-level & population-level
 Growth
 reproductive
 Mortality
 Habitat
success
IMPACTS OF DECLINE OF FISH STOCKS
ON OTHER IMPORTANT MATTERS

Declines in fisheries will have massive
impacts on
 Commercial fishing,
 Tourism
 Biodiversity.
POSSIBLE ADAPTATIONS OF FISH DUE
TO CLIMATE CHANGE WARMING


The extent of climate-driven changes will be mediated
by the capacity for individual species (or populations) to
adapt to changes in important abiotic and biotic
factors.
Adaptations could include

changes in the important life history events (e.g.,
migration, spawning)
and/or

physiological changes (e.g., thermal reaction norms
of key traits such as growth, increased tolerance to
lowered pH/ocean acidification).
OTHER IMPACTS


As global warming continues, the pressure on
fish populations will increase due to following

Overfishing

Pollution

habitat loss
Although slightly warmer water could be
tolerated by man, its effect on fish and aquatic
ecosystems, and ultimately on the global food
supply and economic stability, could be severe.
CLIMATE CHANGE PUTS FISH ON
THE
RUN
 Many fish that cannot find a local solution
are already heading towards the poles as
the water becomes too warm.


Naturally, when fish find themselves in hot
water, they head out in search of cooler
locales.
As global temperatures rise, some fish may
be able to shift locally – by moving deeper
or by heading upriver towards cool
headwaters.
PROBLEMS FACED BY FISH DUE TO
MIGRATION TO WARM WATERS


Fish that can tolerate heat will become much
more common.
The fish that stay around will also have to
deal with new species that enter in to their
niche
HOW WILL FISHERIES CHANGE?





Fisheries resources may become less predictable as
extreme weather hits more often.
Events like the El Niño might cause a greater impact on
warm water fisheries and reef fisheries.
Many fisheries resources will permanently shift location
as water temperatures rise.
Large, commercial fleets that can follow the fisheries
may not be as strongly affected as local, small-scale
fishermen,
Small scale fishermen will have to adapt their gear and
methods, travel further, and fish longer to continue
providing enough food for their families and local
markets.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND
COASTAL COMMUNITIES
The Layers of the
Atmosphere
The ozone
layer, which
protects us
from harmful
radiation, is
part of the
stratosphere.
The Greenhouse Effect
Natural greenhouse effect
Enhanced greenhouse effect
Diagrams adapted from: http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/faq/page5.html
CLIMATE CHANGE: CAUSESARTH’S
CLIMATE TO CHANGE?
•
•
Changes in the atmosphere
Natural processes
–
–
–
•
Volcanoes
Tectonic plate movement
Changes in the sun
Human activities – any activity that releases
“greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere
Global Climate Change
Global Mean Temperature
(140 year record)
Combined annual land-surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies (C°) 1861 to 2000 relative to
1961 and 1990. Two standard error uncertainties are shown as bars on the annual number.
44
1,000 Year Temperature and Instrumental Data
Northern Hemisphere anomaly (°C)
Relative to 1961 to 1990 mean
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1 .0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Year
45
CLIMATE CHANGE
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Global warming refers to the gradual increase of the
Earth’s temperature because of energy trapped by the
Earth’s atmosphere
The retention of the heat by the atmosphere is called the
greenhouse effect.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasing
GHGs affect the climate system
World average temperature has risen relatively fast over
the past 30 years
Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating
Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes have
changed over the past two decades
HOW THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT WORKS
•
•
•
•
Heat, in the form of short wave infrared
radiation is received by the Earth from the
sun
This heat is reflected back out into space in
the form of long-wave infrared radiation.
As long as this energy input-output exchange
is in equilibrium, we stay the same
temperature (globally)
If something alters it, we either heat up or
cool down.
PERMANENT GASES

Permanent gases in the atmosphere by percent are:




Nitrogen 78.1%
Oxygen 20.9%
(Note that these two permanent gases together comprise 99% of the
atmosphere)
Other permanent gases:





Argon 0.9%
Neon 0.002%
Helium 0.0005%
Krypton 0.0001%
Hydrogen 0.00005%
VARIABLE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Variable gases in the atmosphere and typical
percentage values are:





Water vapor 0 to 4%
Carbon Dioxide 0.035%
Methane 0.0002%
Ozone 0.000004%
CFC’s (not naturally occurring)
GREENHOUSE GASES

Several gases act as heat sinks in the
atmosphere
 CO2
 CFCs
 Methane
 Water
vapor
WHAT ARE GREENHOUSE GASES?
Gases that cause the “greenhouse effect!”
Carbon Dioxide
David D. Houghton
Global Climate Change
Indicators of the Human Influence
on the Atmosphere During the
Industrial Era
(a) Global atmospheric concentrations
of three well mixed greenhouse gases
Methane
(b) Sulphate aerosols deposited
in Greenland ice
Nitrous oxide
Sulphur
52
RELATIVE CONCERNS OVER GREENHOUSE
GASES
CO2 is the largest concern, being the largest
constituent of the atmosphere
 Methane holds more heat, but because it is
chemically more active, its atmospheric
duration is about 10 years
 CFC’s hold much more heat, and last a very
long time, but still are a smaller portion

 Also
being reduced due to Montreal protocol
ATMOSPHERIC CO2
Atmospheric CO2 is believed to have been
about 280 ppm (parts per million) in the preindustrial age.
 This figure is based on estimates of carbon
sinks and flux, along with the geological record.
(ice core samples, bubbles in amber, etc)

CO2
The most plentiful greenhouse gas
 Results from

 Combustion
of fossil fuels
 Gas
best fuel
 Oil medium
 Coal worst

Based on ratio of carbon to hydrogen in the molecules
 Burning
of vegetation/deforestation
 Reduced uptake in plants/deforestation
MAUNA LOA CO2 OBSERVATIONS
The data on atmospheric CO2 collected by
Keeling at the Mauna Loa observatory is said to
be the most widely seen data set in the world.
 It was started in 1955

 CO2 was
at 313ppm then
 It is at 375ppm now (2002), an increase of 16.5%
in 47 years
THE KEELING CO2 DATA
METHANE

Sources
 Coal
mining
 Oil production
 Organic decomposition
 Animal digestion

Resident in atmosphere about 10 years
CFCS

Nasty little gases – only anthropogenic
 CFCs
do not occur in nature – the Fluorine bond is
to strong to break naturally.

CFCs come from
 Refrigerants
 Styrofoam,
foaming agents
 Cleaning electronics
 Spray propellants
WATER VAPOR
Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
ICE CAP
AT
ARCTIC
CIRCLE
ICE ON KILIMANJARO
1970
2000
Global average
temperature
Global average sea
level
Northern hemisphere
snow cover
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Temperature rise
 Precipitation
 Soil Moisture
 Changing Habitats
 Sea Level Rise

TEMPERATURE RISE



Estimates are in the 1.5° to 4.5° C
Every degree C is equal to about 100 miles of latitude.
Rising temperature means rising AC usage, which
means rising CO2 consumption, accelerating
greenhouse effect
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION
Changing Patterns of rainfall/drought
 Extreme Precipitation events

 Droughts
 Storms
- flooding
 Snowfall
 Hurricanes
 In
a warmer world, more hurricanes, longer season, and
more powerful storms
SOIL MOISTURE

Increased temperature means a decreased
spoil moisture unless precipitation increases
CHANGING HABITATS
Changes in habitat
 Migration patterns
 Ecosystem changes

 Changes
in species populations can ripple through
an ecosystem.
SEA LEVEL RISE
Thermal expansion of water
 Arctic Ice pack
 Glaciers
 Western Antarctic

THERMAL EXPANSION OF WATER
Water molecules get larger as they get warmer.
 Sea level rises about 1cm per .1° C
 Hence sea level has risen about 10cm since
1900, along with a global mean sea level temp
rise of about 1°
 Thus sea level may rise by 15-45cm due to
thermal expansion

GLACIERS
Almost all glaciers have receded in last century
 Possible that increased precipitation may
cause increased glaciations on South pole

Glacial Retreat: Thinning of the
tongue
during
the
1990s
accelerated and as of 2001 a lake
started to form in front of it (right
image). The ice became buoyant
and rapid break-up of the snout is
now underway
COMPUTER MODELS
WHY SHOULD WE CARE?
Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet
•2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles
•3 ft: Would inundate Miami
•Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies
•Half of the world’s population lives along coasts
SEA-LEVEL RISE OVER COMING CENTURIES
Sea-Level
Rise,
over the
coming
millennium
FOLLOWING
70 YEARS
OF EXCESS
GREENHOUSE
GAS
EMISSIONS
1.5
Sea-level rise (m)
Total sea level rise
1.0
Ocean Expansion
Ice-melt
0.5
Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action)
0.0
Peaking in 2050
200
400
600
800
Time from start (years)
IPCC 2001
SEA LEVEL RISE RISKS TO
SMALL ISLAND-STATES
Coastal flooding
 Amplified storm surges
 Damaged coastal infrastructure (roads, etc.)
 Salination of island fresh-water (esp.
subterranean cells)
 Impaired crop production
 Population displacement: diverse health
risks (nutrition, infection, mental health)

MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE AT ARABIAN SEA
Saltwater intrusion in the estuaries
SANHRO DHAND
VEGETATION
HIGH WATER LINE
CHOLARI DHAND
WATER BODY
WATER BODY
JATI DRAIN
TIDAL LINK DRAIN
SHAH SAMANDO CREEK
Area Affected by Sea Intrusion
DISTRICT
/
AREA
TALUKA
(ha)
Fully
Eroded
1,324,606
348,093
186,400
534,493
790,113
297,707
205,940
35,055
240,995
56,712
Ghora Bari
94,686
2,986
9,867
12,853
81,833
Kharo Chan
192,902
39,147
8,944
48,091
144,811
Mirpur Sakro
300,629
4,503
20,057
24,560
276,069
Jati
357,215
49,411
112,069
161,480
195,735
81,467
46,106
408
46,514
34,953
Badin
323,749
14,595
17,978
32,573
291,176
Golarchi
179,798
2,764
9,736
12,500
167,298
Badin
143,951
11,831
8,242
20,073
123,878
Thatta
Shah Bundar
Keti Bundar
(ha)
Partially
Eroded
Total
Not
Eroded
JHABO WETLAND
KARO-GHANGRO DRAIN
Nematalosa nasus
Sardinella longiceps
Sardinella sindensis
Strongylura strongylura
Cociella crocodila
Terapon jarbua
Sillago sihama
Leiognathus splendens
Pomadasys commersonni
Pomadasys maculates
Acanthopagrus latus
Liza subviridis
Liza vaigiensis
Labeo boga
Mystus gulio
Glossogobius giuris
Channa punctata
Oreochromis mossambica
Keti Bandar, looking towards the Arabian Sea.
Keti Bandar
Shah Bandar
10 km
SEA LEVEL RISE
Sea level Rise-Damb
Tippun; Hajamro creek
Hardly a few centimeter above high water
mark
LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE & PROPERTY
Homeless; Phirth village
Migration; Mero Dablo
Village
THANKS